Кл.слова (ненормированные):
biofuels -- carbon sequestration -- climate policy -- climatechange effects -- economic feedbacks -- landcover change -- landuse change -- Carbon sequestration -- Carbon-sink activity -- Climate policy -- Climate stabilization -- Ecosystem metabolisms -- Land-cover change -- Land-use change -- Unintended consequences -- Biofuels -- Carbon -- Cultivation -- Expansion -- Land use -- Vegetation -- Climate change
Аннотация: Climate change will alter ecosystem metabolism and may lead to a redistribution of vegetation and changes in fire regimes in Northern Eurasia over the 21st century. Land management decisions will interact with these climate-driven changes to reshape the region's landscape. Here we present an assessment of the potential consequences of climate change on land use and associated land carbon sink activity for Northern Eurasia in the context of climate-induced vegetation shifts. Under a 'business-as-usual' scenario, climate-induced vegetation shifts allow expansion of areas devoted to food crop production (15%) and pastures (39%) over the 21st century. Under a climate stabilization scenario, climate-induced vegetation shifts permit expansion of areas devoted to cellulosic biofuel production (25%) and pastures (21%), but reduce the expansion of areas devoted to food crop production by 10%. In both climate scenarios, vegetation shifts further reduce the areas devoted to timber production by 6-8% over this same time period. Fire associated with climate-induced vegetation shifts causes the region to become more of a carbon source than if no vegetation shifts occur. Consideration of the interactions between climate-induced vegetation shifts and human activities through a modeling framework has provided clues to how humans may be able to adapt to a changing world and identified the trade-offs, including unintended consequences, associated with proposed climate/energy policies. © 2014 IOP Publishing Ltd.
Scopus,
WOS
Держатели документа:
Ecosystems Center, Marine Biological Laboratory, 7 MBL Street, Woods Hole, MA 02543, United States
Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02139, United States
Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Purdue University, 550 Stadium Mall Drive, West Lafayette, IN 47907, United States
VN Sukachev Institute of Forest, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Krasnoyarsk, Russian Federation
Доп.точки доступа:
Kicklighter, D.W.; Cai, Y.; Zhuang, Q.; Parfenova, E.I.; Paltsev, S.; Sokolov, A.P.; Melillo, J.M.; Reilly, J.M.; Tchebakova, N.M.; Lu, X.