/ S. Rolinski, A. V. Prishchepov, G. Guggenberger [et al.]> // Reg. Envir. Chang. - 2021. -
Vol. 21,
Is. 3. - Ст. 73,
DOI 10.1007/s10113-021-01799-7. - Cited References:103. - The study was part of the project Kulunda (BMBF under grant numbers 01LL0905L and 01LL0905I). We thank for financial support of the following projects: EU FP7 ERA.Net Russia Plus: 449 CLIMASTEPPE, funding Goszadanie of Institute of Steppe 'Problems of steppe management under the conditions of modern challenges: optimization of the interaction between environmental and socio-economic systems' No.AAAA-A21-121011190016-1. DFF-Danish ERC Support Program (grant number: 116491, 9127-00001B) and the BMBF project ReKKS under grant number 01LZ1704A. We also thank the GERUKA project, which is funded by the German Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (BMEL), the Federal Office for Agriculture and Food (BLE) and the EPIKUR project, which is funded by the Leibniz Association's 'Joint Initiative for Research and Innovation' ('Pakt fur Forschung und Innovation'). I. Kurganova acknowledges support from state assignments of the Pushchino Scientific Centre of Biological Researches of RAS (under grant number AAAA-A18-118013190177-9). The authors acknowledge help by Jannes Breier. We thank Alexander Tsypin for assistance in collection the historical land-use change datasets. We acknowledge the modelling groups, the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and the WCRP's Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) for their roles in making available the WCRP CMIP3 multi-model data set. Support of this data set is provided by the Office of Science, U.S. Department of Energy.
. - ISSN 1436-3798. - ISSN 1436-378X
РУБ Environmental Sciences + Environmental Studies
Аннотация: Changes in land use and climate are the main drivers of change in soil organic matter contents. We investigated the impact of the largest policy-induced land conversion to arable land, the Virgin Lands Campaign (VLC), from 1954 to 1963, of the massive
cropland abandonment after 1990 and of climate change on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan. We simulated carbon budgets from the pre-VLC period (1900) until 2100 using a dynamic vegetation model to assess the impacts of observed land-use change as well as future climate and land-use change scenarios. The simulations suggest for the entire VLC region (266 million hectares) that the historic
cropland expansion resulted in emissions of 1.6. 10(15) g (= 1.6 Pg) carbon between 1950 and 1965 compared to 0.6 Pg in a scenario without the expansion. From 1990 to 2100, climate change alone is projected to cause emissions of about 1.8 (+/- 1.1) Pg carbon. Hypothetical recultivation of the
cropland that has been abandoned after the fall of the Soviet Union until 2050 may cause emissions of 3.5 (+/- 0.9) Pg carbon until 2100, whereas the abandonment of all
cropland until 2050 would lead to sequestration of 1.8 (+/- 1.2) Pg carbon. For the climate scenarios based on SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission pathways, SOC declined only moderately for constant land use but substantially with further
cropland expansion. The variation of SOC in response to the climate scenarios was smaller than that in response to the land-use scenarios. This suggests that the effects of land-use change on SOC dynamics may become as relevant as those of future climate change in the Eurasian steppes.
WOS Держатели документа: Leibniz Assoc, Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, POB 60 12 03, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany.
Univ Copenhagen, Dept Geosci & Nat Resource Management, Geog, Oster Voldgade 10, DK-1350 Copenhagen K, Denmark.
Russian Acad Sci, Ural Branch, Inst Steppe, Orenburg, Russia.
Leibniz Univ Hannover, Inst Bodenkunde, Herrenhauser Str 2, D-30419 Hannover, Germany.
RAS, VN Sukachev Inst Forest, SB, Krasnoyarsk 660036, Russia.
Landesamt Bergbau Energie & Geol LBEG, Stilleweg 2, D-30655 Hannover, Germany.
Russian Acad Sci, Inst Physicochem & Biol Problems Soil Sci, Pushchino, Russia.
Leibniz Inst Agr Dev Transit Econ IAMO, Theodor Lieser Str 2, D-06120 Halle, Saale, Germany.
Humboldt Univ, Geog Dept, Unter Linden 6, D-10099 Berlin, Germany.
Humboldt Univ, Integrat Res Inst Transformat Human Environm Syst, Unter Linden 6, D-10099 Berlin, Germany.
Доп.точки доступа: Rolinski, Susanne; Prishchepov, Alexander V.; Guggenberger, Georg; Bischoff, Norbert; Kurganova, Irina; Schierhorn, Florian; Muller, D.; Muller, C.; Prishchepov, Alexander; project Kulunda (BMBF)Federal Ministry of Education & Research (BMBF) [01LL0905L, 01LL0905I]; EU FP7 ERA.Net Russia Plus [449 CLIMASTEPPE]; Institute of SteppeRussian Academy of Sciences [AAAA-A21-121011190016-1]; DFF-Danish ERC Support Program [116491, 9127-00001B]; BMBF project ReKKSFederal Ministry of Education & Research (BMBF) [01LZ1704A]; German Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (BMEL); Federal Office for Agriculture and Food (BLE); EPIKUR project - Leibniz Association's 'Joint Initiative for Research and Innovation' ('Pakt fur Forschung und Innovation'); Pushchino Scientific Centre of Biological Researches of RAS [AAAA-A18-118013190177-9]