Кл.слова (ненормированные):
Climate reconstruction -- Dendroclimatology -- Human history -- Northern Hemisphere -- Tree-ring width -- Volcanic eruptions -- atmospheric forcing -- climate variation -- episodic event -- Little Ice Age -- Medieval -- Northern Hemisphere -- proxy climate record -- tree ring -- volcanism -- Antique -- Atlantic Ocean -- Atlantic Ocean (North) -- Far East -- Philippines -- Western Visayas
Аннотация: Climate reconstructions for the Common Era are compromised by the paucity of annually-resolved and absolutely-dated proxy records prior to medieval times. Where reconstructions are based on combinations of different climate archive types (of varying spatiotemporal resolution, dating uncertainty, record length and predictive skill), it is challenging to estimate past amplitude ranges, disentangle the relative roles of natural and anthropogenic forcing, or probe deeper interrelationships between climate variability and human history. Here, we compile and analyse updated versions of all the existing summer temperature sensitive tree-ring width chronologies from the Northern Hemisphere that span the entire Common Era. We apply a novel ensemble approach to reconstruct extra-tropical summer temperatures from 1 to 2010 CE, and calculate uncertainties at continental to hemispheric scales. Peak warming in the 280s, 990s and 1020s, when volcanic forcing was low, was comparable to modern conditions until 2010 CE. The lowest June–August temperature anomaly in 536 not only marks the beginning of the coldest decade, but also defines the onset of the Late Antique Little Ice Age (LALIA). While prolonged warmth during Roman and medieval times roughly coincides with the tendency towards societal prosperity across much of the North Atlantic/European sector and East Asia, major episodes of volcanically-forced summer cooling often presaged widespread famines, plague outbreaks and political upheavals. Our study reveals a larger amplitude of spatially synchronized summer temperature variation during the first millennium of the Common Era than previously recognised. © 2020 Elsevier GmbH
Scopus
Держатели документа:
Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB2 3EN, United Kingdom
Swiss Federal Research Institute (WSL), Birmensdorf, 8903, Switzerland
Global Change Research Centre (CzechGlobe), Brno, 603 00, Czech Republic
Department of Geography, Faculty of Science, Masaryk University, Brno, 613 00, Czech Republic
Department of Biology, Chemistry and Geography, University of Quebec, Rimouski, QC G5L 3A1, Canada
Department of Geography, University of Quebec, Montreal, H2X 3R9, Canada
Institute of Ecology and Geography, Siberian Federal University, Krasnoyarsk, 660041, Russian Federation
Institute of Humanities, Siberian Federal University, Krasnoyarsk, 660041, Russian Federation
Forest Research Institute, University of Quebec in Abitibi-Temiscamingue, Amos, J9T 2L8, Canada
Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, United States
Sukachev Institute of Forest SB RAS, Krasnoyarsk, 660036, Russian Federation
Department of Geography, Justus Liebig University, Giessen, 35390, Germany
Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, Stockholm, 10691, Sweden
Regional Climate Group, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, 40530, Sweden
Department of History, Stockholm University, Stockholm, 10691, Sweden
Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, 10691, Sweden
Swedish Collegium for Advanced Study, Uppsala, 15238, Sweden
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, 14473, Germany
Initiative for the Science of the Human Past at Harvard, Department of History, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, United States
Max Planck–Harvard Research Centre for Archaeoscience of the Ancient Mediterranean, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, United States
Department of Geography, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, 6020, Austria
Department of Geography, Johannes Gutenberg University, Mainz, 55099, Germany
Climate and Environmental Physics (CEP), Physics Institute & Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (OCCR), University of Bern, Bern, 3012, Switzerland
Доп.точки доступа:
Buntgen, U.; Arseneault, D.; Boucher, E.; Churakova (Sidorova), O. V.; Gennaretti, F.; Crivellaro, A.; Hughes, M. K.; Kirdyanov, A. V.; Klippel, L.; Krusic, P. J.; Linderholm, H. W.; Ljungqvist, F. C.; Ludescher, J.; McCormick, M.; Myglan, V. S.; Nicolussi, K.; Piermattei, A.; Oppenheimer, C.; Reinig, F.; Sigl, M.; Vaganov, E. A.; Esper, J.