/ M. Cailleret [et al.]> // Front. Plant Sci. - 2019. -
Vol. 9. - Ст. 1964,
DOI 10.3389/fpls.2018.01964. - Cited References:114. - This study generated from the COST Action STReESS (FP1106) financially supported by the EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation Horizon 2020. We would like to thank Don Falk (University of Arizona) and two reviewers for their valuable comments, all the colleagues for their help while compiling the database, and Louise Filion, Michael Dorman, and Demetrios Sarris for sharing their datasets. MC was funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation (project number 140968). ER was funded by the Research Foundation - Flanders (FWO, Belgium) and got support from the EU Horizon 2020 Programme through a Marie Sklodowska-Curie IF Fellowship (No. 659191). KC was funded by the Slovenian Research Agency (ARRS) Program P4-0015. IM was funded by National Research, Development and Innovation Office, project number NKFI-SNN-125652. AMP was funded by the Ministry of Research and Innovation, CNCS - UEFISCDI, project number PN-III-P1-1.1-TE-2016-1508, within PNCDI III (BIOCARB). GS-B was supported by a Juan de la Cierva-Formacion grant from MINECO (FJCI 2016-30121). DS was funded by the project III 43007 financed by the Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Serbia. AW was funded by Canada's Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council and Manitoba Sustainable Development. JM-V benefited from an ICREA Academia Award. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the United States Government.
. - ISSN 1664-462X
РУБ Plant Sciences
Аннотация: Tree mortality is a key driver of forest dynamics and its occurrence is projected to increase in the future due to climate change. Despite recent advances in our understanding of the physiological mechanisms leading to death, we still lack robust indicators of mortality risk that could be applied at the individual tree scale. Here, we build on a previous contribution exploring the differences in growth level between trees that died and survived a given mortality event to assess whether changes in temporal
autocorrelation, variance, and synchrony in time-series of annual radial growth data can be used as early warning signals of mortality risk. Taking advantage of a unique global ring-width database of 3065 dead trees and 4389 living trees growing together at 198 sites (belonging to 36 gymnosperm and angiosperm species), we analyzed temporal changes in
autocorrelation, variance, and synchrony before tree death (diachronic analysis), and also compared these metrics between trees that died and trees that survived a given mortality event (synchronic analysis). Changes in
autocorrelation were a poor indicator of mortality risk. However, we found a gradual increase in inter- annual growth variability and a decrease in growth synchrony in the last similar to 20 years before mortality of gymnosperms, irrespective of the cause of mortality. These changes could be associated with drought-induced alterations in carbon economy and allocation patterns. In angiosperms, we did not find any consistent changes in any metric. Such lack of any signal might be explained by the relatively high capacity of angiosperms to recover after a stress-induced growth decline. Our analysis provides a robust method for estimating early-warning signals of tree mortality based on annual growth data. In addition to the frequently reported decrease in growth rates, an increase in inter-annual growth variability and a decrease in growth synchrony may be powerful predictors of gymnosperm mortality risk, but not necessarily so for angiosperms.
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Scopus Держатели документа: Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Dept Environm Syst Sci, Inst Terr Ecosyst, Forest Ecol, Zurich, Switzerland.
Swiss Fed Inst Forest Snow & Landscape Res WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland.
Univ Montpelier, EPHE, CNRS, ISEM,IRD, Montpellier, France.
Ulm Univ, Inst Systemat Bot & Ecol, Ulm, Germany.
CREAF Cerdanyola Valles, Catalonia, Spain.
Vrije Univ Brussel, Ecol & Biodivers, Brussels, Belgium.
Royal Museum Cent Africa, Lab Wood Biol & Xylarium, Tervuren, Belgium.
Univ Helsinki, Dept Forest Sci, Helsinki, Finland.
Consejo Nacl Invest Cient & Tecn, CCT Patagonia Norte, San Carlos De Bariloche, Rio Negro, Argentina.
Univ Nacl Rio Negro, Inst Invest Recursos Nat Agroecol & Desarrollo Ru, Sede Andina, San Carlos De Bariloche, Rio Negro, Argentina.
Univ Victoria, Dept Biol, Victoria, BC, Canada.
Univ Milan, Dipartimento Biosci, Milan, Italy.
CSIC, IPE, Zaragoza, Spain.
Univ Laval, Dept Sci Bois & Foret, Ctr Forest Res, Fac Foresterie, Quebec City, PQ, Canada.
Univ Ljubljana, Biotech Fac, Ljubljana, Slovenia.
US Geol Survey, Western Ecol Res Ctr, Sequoia & Kings Canyon Field Stn, Three Rivers, CA USA.
INRA, Ecol Forets Mediterraneennes URFM, Avignon, France.
Ctr Invest Forestal CIFOR, Inst Nacl Invest & Tecnol Agr Alimentaria, Madrid, Spain.
Tech Univ Dresden, Inst Forest Bot & Forest Zool, Dresden, Germany.
US Forest Serv, USDA, Forest Hlth Protect, St Paul, MN USA.
Univ Arkansas, Dept Entomol, Fayetteville, AR 72701 USA.
Max Planck Inst Biogeochem, Dept Biogeochem Proc, Jena, Germany.
Transilvania Univ Brasov, Dept Forest Sci, Brasov, Romania.
BC3, Leioa, Spain.
Desert Bot Garden, Dept Res Conservat & Collect, Phoenix, AZ USA.
Czech Univ Life Sci, Fac Forestry & Wood Sci, Prague, Czech Republic.
Humboldt State Univ, Dept Forestry & Wildland Resources, Arcata, CA 95521 USA.
Russian Acad Sci, Sukachev Inst Forest, Siberian Div, Krasnoyarsk, Russia.
Siberian Fed Univ, Dept Ecol, Krasnoyarsk, Russia.
Univ Nacl Comahue, Dept Ecol, Neuquen, Rio Negro, Argentina.
Consejo Nacl Invest Cient & Tecn, Inst Invest Biodiversidad & Medioambiente, San Carlos De Bariloche, Rio Negro, Argentina.
Weizmann Inst Sci, Dept Plant & Environm Sci, Rehovot, Israel.
Slovenian Forestry Inst, Dept Yield & Silviculture, Ljubljana, Slovenia.
Pablo de Olavide Univ, Dept PhysChem & Nat Syst, Seville, Spain.
Mediterranean Univ Reggio Calabria, Dept Agr Sci, Reggio Di Calabria, Italy.
Nat Resources Inst Finland Luke, Espoo, Finland.
Univ Debrecen, Fac Sci & Technol, Dept Bot, Debrecen, Hungary.
Nat Resources Canada, Northern Forestry Ctr, Canadian Forest Serv, Edmonton, AB, Canada.
Univ Innsbruck, Dept Bot, Innsbruck, Austria.
Technol Educ Inst Stereas Blades, Dept Forestry & Nat Environm Management, Karpenisi, Greece.
Natl Inst Res & Dev Forestry Marin Dracea, Voluntari, Romania.
Univ Valladolid, Dept Ciencias Agroforestales, iuFOR, EiFAB, Soria, Spain.
Univ Colorado, Dept Geog, Boulder, CO 80309 USA.
No Arizona Univ, Dept Geog Planning & Recreat, Flagstaff, AZ USA.
Univ Novi Sad, Inst Lowland Forestry & Environm, Novi Sad, Serbia.
Consejo Nacl Invest Cient & Tecn, Grp Ecol Forestal, INTA EEA Bariloche, San Carlos De Bariloche, Rio Negro, Argentina.
Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Dept Environm Syst Sci, Inst Agr Sci, Zurich, Switzerland.
CCT CONICET Mendoza, Inst Argentine Nivol Glaciol & Ciencies Ambiental, Lab Dendrocronal & Hist Ambiental, Mendoza, Argentina.
Univ Alberta, Dept Renewable Resources, Boreal Avian Modelling Project, Edmonton, AB, Canada.
Univ Minnesota, Dept Biol, Morris, MN 56267 USA.
Univ Autonoma Barcelona, Dept Biol Anim Biol Vegetal & Ecol, Cerdanyola Del Valles, Spain.
Доп.точки доступа: Cailleret, Maxime; Dakos, Vasilis; Jansen, Steven; Robert, Elisabeth M. R.; Aakala, Tuomas; Amoroso, Mariano M.; Antos, Joe A.; Bigler, Christof; Bugmann, Harald; Caccianaga, Marco; Camarero, Jesus-Julio; Cherubini, Paolo; Coyea, Marie R.; Cufar, Katarina; Das, Adrian J.; Davi, Hendrik; Gea-Izquierdo, Guillermo; Gillner, Sten; Haavik, Laurel J.; Hartmann, Henrik; Heres, Ana-Maria; Hultine, Kevin R.; Janda, Pavel; Kane, Jeffrey M.; Kharuk, Viachelsav, I; Kitzberger, Thomas; Klein, Tamir; Levanic, Tom; Linares, Juan-Carlos; Lombardi, Fabio; Makinen, Harri; Meszaros, Ilona; Metsaranta, Juha M.; Oberhuber, Walter; Papadopoulos, Andreas; Petritan, Any Mary; Rohner, Brigitte; Sanguesa-Barreda, Gabriel; Smith, Jeremy M.; Stan, Amanda B.; Stojanovic, Dejan B.; Suarez, Maria-Laura; Svoboda, Miroslav; Trotsiuk, Volodymyr; Villalba, Ricardo; Westwood, Alana R.; Wyckoff, Peter H.; Martinez-Vilalta, Jordi; EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation Horizon 2020 [FP1106]; Swiss National Science Foundation [140968]; Research Foundation - Flanders (FWO, Belgium); EU Horizon 2020 Programme through a Marie Sklodowska-Curie IF Fellowship [659191]; Slovenian Research Agency (ARRS) [P4-0015]; National Research, Development and Innovation Office [NKFI-SNN-125652]; Ministry of Research and Innovation, CNCS - UEFISCDI, within PNCDI III (BIOCARB) [PN-III-P1-1.1-TE-2016-1508]; Juan de la Cierva-Formacion grant from MINECO [FJCI 2016-30121]; Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Serbia [III 43007]; Canada's Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council; Manitoba Sustainable Development; ICREA Academia Award