Труды сотрудников ИЛ им. В.Н. Сукачева СО РАН

: материалы временных коллективов / D. I. Nazimova [и др.] // Boreal forests in a changing world: challenges and needs for action: Proceedings of the International conference August 15-21 2011, Krasnoyarsk, Russia. - Krasnoyarsk : V.N. Sukachev Institute of forest SB RAS, 2011. - С. 240-242. - Библиогр. в конце ст.
Аннотация: The approach to the estimation of mountain forest ecosystems in Altai-Sayan ecoregion is developed using bioclimatic classification of altitudinal belt complexes (abc) of forest types. The main characteristics and distribution of climate facies (groups of cyclonic and anticyclonic regions) are presented. The data base on biodiversity, climate and soils is added with new remote sensing data. The approach is aimed to find the optimal balance between different ways of multiple forest management keeping high environmental and social function of ecosystems and biogeocoenoses.

Держатели документа:
Институт леса им. В.Н. Сукачева Сибирского отделения Российской академии наук : 660036, Красноярск, Академгородок 50/28

Доп.точки доступа:
Nazimova, Dina Ivanovna; Назимова, Дина Ивановна; Drobushevskaya, Ol'ga Vladimirovna; Дробушевская, Ольга Владимировна; Ismailova, Dilshad Magomedovna; Исмаилова, Дилшад Магомедовна; Ponomarev, Evgeny Ivanovich; Пономарев, Евгений Иванович

: материалы временных коллективов / D. I. Nazimova [и др.] // Boreal forests in a changing world: challenges and needs for action: Proceedings of the International conference August 15-21 2011, Krasnoyarsk, Russia. - Krasnoyarsk : V.N. Sukachev Institute of forest SB RAS, 2011. - С. 248. - Библиогр. в конце ст.
Аннотация: A model is proposed where succession is considered to be a sequence of ecological phase transitions. Field data for various stages of succession processes are used to verify the model.

Держатели документа:
Институт леса им. В.Н. Сукачева Сибирского отделения Российской академии наук : 660036, Красноярск, Академгородок 50/28

Доп.точки доступа:
Soukhovolsky, Vladislav Grigor'yevich; Суховольский, Владислав Григорьевич; Овчинникова, Тамара Михайловна

/ N. M. Tchebakova, E. I. Parfenova // Bosque. - 2012. - Vol. 33, Is. 3. - P253-259, DOI 10.4067/S0717-92002012000300004. - Cited References: 22. - We ackowledge the support of the RFFI project 10-05-00941, the NASA LCLUC NEESPI project and NASA Interdisciplinary Science NNH09ZDA001N-IDS. . - 7. - ISSN 0717-9200РУБ Ecology + Forestry

Аннотация: Regional studies have shown that winters warmed 2-3 degrees C while summers warmed 1-2 degrees C during the1960-2010 period in central Siberia. Increased warming predicted from general circulation models (GCMs) by the end of the century is expected to impact Siberian vegetation. Our goal is to evaluate the consequences of climate warming on vegetation, forests, and forest-forming tree species in central Siberia. We use our envelope-type bioclimatic models of the Siberian forests and major tree conifer species based on three climatic indices which characterise their warmth and moisture requirements and cold resistance, and on one soil factor that charactrises their tolerance to permafrost. Coupling our bioclimatic models with the climatic indices and the permafrost distributions, we predict the potential habitats of forests and forest-forming tree species in current climate conditions and also in the 2080 projected climate. In the 2080 drier climate conditions, Siberian forests are simulated to decrease significantly and shift northwards while forest-steppe and steppe would come to dominate 50 % of central Siberia. Permafrost is not predicted to thaw deep enough to sustain dark (Pinus sibirica, Abies sibirica, and Picea obovata) taiga. Dahurian larch (L. gmelinii+cajanderi), which is able to withstand permafrost, would remain the dominant tree species. Light conifers (Larix spp. and Pinus sylvestris) may gain an advantage over dark conifers in a predicted dry climate due to their resistance to water stress and wildfire. Habitats for new temperate broadleaf forests, non-existent in Siberia at present, are predicted by 2080.

WOS,
Scopus

Держатели документа:
[Tchebakova, Nadezda M.
Parfenova, Elena I.] Russian Acad Sci, VNSukachev Inst Forest, Siberian Branch, Krasnoyarsk 660036, Russia

Доп.точки доступа:
Tchebakova, N.M.; Parfenova, E.I.

[Text] / N. M. Tchebakova, E. I. Parfenova, A. J. Soja // Reg. Envir. Chang. - 2011. - Vol. 11, Is. 4. - P817-827, DOI 10.1007/s10113-011-0210-4. - Cited References: 65. - This study was supported by grant #10-05-00941 of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research and NASA Research Opportunities in Space and Earth Sciences (ROSES) 2009 InterDisciplinary Science (IDS) 09-IDS09-0116. . - 11. - ISSN 1436-3798РУБ Environmental Sciences + Environmental Studies

Аннотация: Regional Siberian studies have already registered climate warming over the last several decades. We evaluated ongoing climate change in central Siberia between 1991 and 2010 and a baseline period, 1961-1990, and between 1991 and 2010 and Hadley 2020 climate change projections, represented by the moderate B1 and severe A2 scenarios. Our analysis showed that winters are already 2-3A degrees C warmer in the north and 1-2A degrees C warmer in the south by 2010. Summer temperatures increased by 1A degrees C in the north and by 1-2A degrees C in the south. Change in precipitation is more complicated, increasing on average 10% in middle latitudes and decreasing 10-20% in the south, promoting local drying in already dry landscapes. Hot spots of possible forest shifts are modeled using our Siberian bioclimatic vegetation model and mountain vegetation model with respect to climate anomalies observed pre-2010 and predicted 2020 Hadley scenarios. Forests are predicted to shift northwards along the central Siberian Plateau and upslope in both the northern and southern mountains. South of the central Siberian Plateau, steppe advancement is predicted that was previously non-existent north of 56A degrees N latitude. South of 56A degrees N, steppe expansion is predicted in the dry environments of Khakasiya and Tyva. In the southern mountains, it is predicted that the lower tree line will migrate upslope due to increased dryness in the intermontane Tyvan basins. The hot spots of vegetation change that are predicted by our models are confirmed by regional literature data.

Полный текст,
WOS,
Scopus

Держатели документа:
[Tchebakova, N. M.
Parfenova, E. I.] Russian Acad Sci Academgorodok, VN Sukachev Inst Forest, Siberian Branch, Krasnoyarsk 660036, Russia
[Soja, A. J.] NASA Langley Res Ctr, Natl Inst Aerosp, Hampton, VA 23681 USA

Доп.точки доступа:
Tchebakova, N.M.; Parfenova, E.I.; Soja, A.J.

[Text] / R. A. Monserud, N. M. Tchebakova, O. V. Denissenko // Paleogeogr. Paleoclimatol. Paleoecol. - 1998. - Vol. 139, Is. 01.02.2013. - P15-36, DOI 10.1016/S0031-0182(97)00127-2. - Cited References: 72 . - 22. - ISSN 0031-0182РУБ Geography, Physical + Geosciences, Multidisciplinary + Paleontology

Аннотация: A bioclimatic vegetation model is used to reconstruct the palaeoclimate of Siberia during the mid-Holocene, a warm. moist period also known as the Holocene climatic optimum. Our goal is to determine the magnitude of climatic anomalies associated with mapped changes in vegetation classes. Reconstructed anomalies are the logical outcome of the bioclimatic assumptions in the Siberia vegetation model operating on location-specific differences in the palaeomap of Khotinsky and the modern map of Isachenko. The Siberian vegetation model specifics the relationship between vegetation classes and climate using climatic indices (growing-degree days, dryness index, continentality index). These indices are then converted into parameters commonly used in climatic reconstructions: January and July mean temperatures. and annual precipitation. Climatic anomalies since the mid-Holocene are then displayed by latitude and longitude. An advantage of a model-based approach to climatic reconstruction is that grid cells can be modelled independently. without the need for interpolation to create smoothed temperature and precipitation contours. The resulting pattern of anomalies is complex. On average. Siberian winters in the mid-Holocene were 3.7 degrees C warmer than now, with greater warming in higher latitudes. The major winter warming was concentrated in the Taiga zone on the plains and tablelands of East Siberia, where a warm and moist climate was necessary to support a broad expanse of shade-tolerant dark-needled Taiga. January temperatures averaged about 1 degrees C warmer than now across southern Siberia. although large areas show no change. July temperature anomalies (0-5 degrees C) are distributed mostly latitudinally, with anomalies increasing with latitude above 65 degrees N. At latitudes below 65 degrees N, July temperature was nearly the same as today across Siberia. Based on July temperatures. Siberian summers in the mid-Holocene were 0.7 degrees C warmer than today's. Annual precipitation in Siberia was predicted to be 95 mm greater in the mid-Holocene than now. Most of the increase was concentrated in East Siberia (154 mm average increase). The precipitation anomalies are small in the south. Large precipitation anomalies are found in central and northeastern Siberia. This location corresponds rather closely to the large anomalies in January temperature in East Siberia. The annual precipitation Increase was > 200 mm more than present precipitation in Yakutia. This increase corresponds to the deep penetration of moisture-demanding dark-needled species (Pinus sibirica. Abies sibirica, Picea obovata) into East Siberia in the mid-Holocene, where currently only drought-resistant light-needled species (Larix spp.) are found. Another area of increased precipitation was along the Polar Circle in West Siberia and at the base of the Taymyr Peninsula in East Siberia. In combination with 2-5 degrees C warmer summers, moister climates there allowed forests to advance far northward into what is now the Tundra zone.

WOS,
Полный текст,
Scopus

Держатели документа:
Forest Serv, Rocky Mt Res Stn, USDA, Portland, OR 97205 USA
Forest Serv, Pacific NW Res Stn, USDA, Portland, OR 97205 USA
Russian Acad Sci, Siberian Branch, Sukachev Forest Inst, Krasnoyarsk 660036, Russia
Moscow State Univ, Dept Geog, Moscow 119899, Russia

Доп.точки доступа:
Monserud, R.A.; Tchebakova, N.M.; Denissenko, O.V.

[Text] / L. S. Shugalei // Eurasian Soil Sci. - 1998. - Vol. 31, Is. 2. - P209-218. - Cited References: 23 . - 10. - ISSN 1064-2293РУБ Soil Science

Аннотация: The main characteristics and ecological features of gray forest soils under pine and birch stands in the forest-steppe zone are studied. Modern bioclimatic conditions of forest-steppe are favorable for the process of sod formation. Differences in the hydrothermal conditions of soil formation under pine and birch stands influence the biological activity of soils and the species composition of soil mesofauna and microbocenoses.

WOS,
Scopus

Держатели документа:
Russian Acad Sci, Siberian Div, Sukachev Inst Forestry, Krasnoyarsk, Russia

Доп.точки доступа:
Shugalei, L.S.

[Text] / N. M. Tchebakova, E. . Parfenova, A. J. Soja // Environ. Res. Lett. - 2009. - Vol. 4, Is. 4. - Ст. 45013, DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/4/4/045013. - Cited References: 49 . - 9. - ISSN 1748-9326РУБ Environmental Sciences + Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Аннотация: Observations and general circulation model projections suggest significant temperature increases in Siberia this century that are expected to have profound effects on Siberian vegetation. Potential vegetation change across Siberia was modeled, coupling our Siberian BioClimatic Model with several Hadley Centre climate change scenarios for 2020, 2050 and 2080, with explicit consideration of permafrost and fire activity. In the warmer and drier climate projected by these scenarios, Siberian forests are predicted to decrease and shift northwards and forest-steppe and steppe ecosystems are predicted to dominate over half of Siberia due to the dryer climate by 2080. Despite the large predicted increases in warming, permafrost is not predicted to thaw deep enough to sustain dark (Pinus sibirica, Abies sibirica, and Picea obovata) taiga. Over eastern Siberia, larch (Larix dahurica) taiga is predicted to continue to be the dominant zonobiome because of its ability to withstand continuous permafrost. The model also predicts new temperate broadleaf forest and forest-steppe habitats by 2080. Potential fire danger evaluated with the annual number of high fire danger days (Nesterov index is 4000-10 000) is predicted to increase by 2080, especially in southern Siberia and central Yakutia. In a warming climate, fuel load accumulated due to replacement of forest by steppe together with frequent fire weather promotes high risks of large fires in southern Siberia and central Yakutia, where wild fires would create habitats for grasslands because the drier climate would no longer be suitable for forests.

WOS

Держатели документа:
[Tchebakova, N. M.
Parfenova, E.] Russian Acad Sci, Siberian Branch, VN Sukachev Inst Forest, Krasnoyarsk 660036, Russia
[Soja, A. J.] NASA Langley Res Ctr, NIA, Hampton, VA 23681 USA

Доп.точки доступа:
Tchebakova, N.M.; Parfenova, E...; Soja, A.J.

[Text] / N. M. Tchebakova, T. A. Blyakharchuk, E. I. Parfenova // Environ. Res. Lett. - 2009. - Vol. 4, Is. 4. - Ст. 45025, DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/4/4/045025. - Cited References: 72. - This study was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (Grant 06-05-65127). The authors are grateful to Jane Bradford, Gerald Rehfeldt and Robert Monserud for helpful review comments. The authors greatly appreciate the comments of two reviewers which significantly improved the manuscript. . - 11. - ISSN 1748-9326РУБ Environmental Sciences + Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Аннотация: Two quantitative methods were used to reconstruct paleoenvironments and vegetation in the Altai-Sayan mountains, Central Asia, during the Holocene. The 'biomization' method of Prentice et al (1996 Clim. Dyn. 12 185-96), applied to the surface pollen record, worked fairly well in the reconstructions of current vegetation. Applying this method to fossil pollen data, we reconstructed site paleovegetation. Our montane bioclimatic model, MontBioCliM, was used inversely to convert site paleovegetation into site paleoclimates. The differences between site paleo and current climates served as past climate change scenarios. The climatic anomalies for 2020, 2050, and 2080 derived from HadCM3 A1FI and B1 of the Hadley Centre, UK, served as climate change scenarios in the 21st century. MontBioCliM was applied directly to all climate scenarios through the Holocene to map past and future mountain vegetation over the Altai-Sayan mountains. Our results suggest that the early Holocene ca 10 000 BP was cold and dry; the period between 8000 and 5300 BP was warm and moist; and the time slice ca 3200 BP was cooler and drier than the present. Using kappa statistics, we showed that the vegetation at 8000 BP and 5300 BP was similar, as was the vegetation at 10 000 BP and 3200 BP, while future vegetation was predicted to be dissimilar to any of the paleovegetation reconstructions. The mid-Holocene is frequently hypothesized to be an analog of future climate warming; however, being known as warm and moist in Siberia, the mid-Holocene climate would likely impact terrestrial ecosystems differently from the projected warm and dry mid-century climate.

WOS,
Scopus

Держатели документа:
[Tchebakova, N. M.
Parfenova, E. I.] Russian Acad Sci, Siberian Branch, VN Sukachev Inst Forests, Krasnoyarsk 660036, Russia
[Blyakharchuk, T. A.] Russian Acad Sci, Siberian Branch, Inst Monitoring Climat & Ecol Syst, Tomsk 643055, Russia

Доп.точки доступа:
Tchebakova, N.M.; Blyakharchuk, T.A.; Parfenova, E.I.; Russian Foundation for Basic Research [06-05-65127]

[Text] / N. M. Tchebakova, E. I. Parfenova ; ed.: A Amaro, D Reed, Reed, // MODELLING FOREST SYSTEMS : CABI PUBLISHING, 2003. - Workshop on Interface between Reality, Modelling and the Parameter Estimation Process (JUN 02-05, 2002, Sesimbra, PORTUGAL). - P189-197, DOI 10.1079/9780851996936.0189. - Cited References: 14 . - 9. - ISBN 0-85199-693-0РУБ Forestry + Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications

Аннотация: Local-level, bioclimatic regression models that relate stand characteristics (forest composition, height, site quality class and wood stocking) to site climate (temperature sums, base 5 degrees C, and dryness index) were developed to predict the stand structure of dark-needled forest (Pinus sibirica and Abies sibirica) climax successions and their transformations in a changing climate over the Sayan mountain range in southern Siberia. The models explained up to 80% of the variation in forest growth and productivity characteristics. Productivity varied widely and depended on heat supply rather than moisture. Stand tree species composition depended oil moisture: dark-needled species and light-needled tree species (Pinus sylvestris) were separated by a dryness index value of 1.0. Living phytomass was calculated from a wood stocking model. Tree heights and living phytomass were mapped over the mountain range under current climate conditions and a regional climate change scenario. The model predicts that total dark-needled forest phytomass will decrease by 17% in a warmed climate.

WOS

Держатели документа:
Russian Acad Sci, Inst Forest, Siberian Branch, Krasnoyarsk 660036, Russia

Доп.точки доступа:
Tchebakova, N.M.; Parfenova, E.I.; Amaro, A \ed.\; Reed, D \ed.\; Reed, \ed.\

/ V. N. Gorbachev, E. P. Popova // Soviet Soil Science. - 1984. - Vol. 16, Is. 1. - P12-18 . - ISSN 0038-5832
Аннотация: It is shown that the solodized Gray Forest soils on calcareous loesslike loams formed under bioclimatic conditions that differed from those at the present time. -Journal summary

Scopus,
WOS

Держатели документа:
Forest and Wood Inst, Siberian Branch, USSR Acad of Sciences, Krasnoyarsk, USSR.

Доп.точки доступа:
Gorbachev, V.N.; Popova, E.P.

/ T. A. Blyakharchuk [et al.] // Environ.Res.Lett. - 2014. - Vol. 9, Is. 6, DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/9/6/065004 . - ISSN 1748-9326
Аннотация: Prehistoric and early historic human cultures are known to be closely connected to and dependent on their natural environments. We test the hypothesis that climate change influenced the means of subsistence of ancient tribes and favored agricultural or cattle herding economic strategies. Our study area is the Khakass-Minusinsk Hollow, located in the foothills of the Sayan Mountains, south-central Siberia, which was, for a few millennia, a buffer zone for human migrations across the Great Eurasian Steppe. Three different methods (the Montane BioClimatic Model, MontBCliM; the biomization method; and the actualizm method) are employed to reconstruct vegetation taken from the fossil pollen of sediment cores in two mountain lakes at eleven time slices related to successive human cultures back to the mid-Holocene. MontBCliM model is used inversely to convert site paleo-vegetation into site paleo-climates. Climate-based regression models are developed and applied to reconstructed climates to evaluate possible pasture and grain crops for these time slices. Pollen-based reconstructions of the climate fluctuations uncovered several dry periods with steppe and forest-steppe and wetter periods with forests since 6000 BP. Grasslands increased by an order of magnitude during the dry periods and provided extensive open space suitable for pastoralism; however, both grain and pasture yields decreased during these dry periods. During wetter climates, both grain and pasture yields increased twofold and supported more fixed human settlements centered around farming and cattle herding. Thus, the dry periods favored pastoralist rather than farming activities. Conversely, tribes that practiced agriculture had some advantage in the wet periods. © 2014 IOP Publishing Ltd.

Scopus,
Полный текст

Держатели документа:
Institute for Monitoring Climatic and Ecological Systems, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Akademichesky Prospekt 10/3, 643055 Tomsk, Russian Federation
V.N. Sukachev Institute of Forests, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Academgorodok, 50/28, 660036 Krasnoyarsk, Russian Federation
National Institute of Aerospace (NIA), NASA Langley Research Center, Climate Sciences, 21 Langley Boulevard, Hampton, VA 23681-2199, United States
Tomsk State University, Lenina 36, 634050 Tomsk, Russian Federation

Доп.точки доступа:
Blyakharchuk, T.A.; Tchebakova, N.M.; Parfenova, E.I.; Soja, A.J.

/ J. K. Shuman [et al.] // Can. J. For. Res. - 2015. - Vol. 45, Is. 2. - P175-184, DOI 10.1139/cjfr-2014-0138 . - ISSN 0045-5067
Аннотация: Vegetation models are essential tools for projecting large-scale land-cover response to changing climate, which is expected to alter the distribution of biomes and individual species. A large-scale bioclimatic envelope model (RuBCliM) and an individual species based gap model (UVAFME) are used to simulate the Russian forests under current and future climate for two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Results for current conditions are compared between models and assessed against two independent maps of Russian forest biomes and dominant tree species. Comparisons measured with kappa statistics indicate good agreement between the models (kappa values from 0.76 to 0.69), as well as between the model results and two observationbased maps for both species presence and absence (kappa values from 0.70 to 0.43). Agreement between these multiple types of data on forest distribution provides confidence in the projected forest response to changing climate. For future conditions, both models indicate a shift in the dominant biomes from conifers to deciduous leaved species. These projections have implications for feedbacks between the energy budget, carbon cycle, and land cover in the boreal system. The distinct biome and species changes emphasize the need for continued investigation of this landmass that has the size necessary to influence regional and global climate.

Scopus,
WOS

Держатели документа:
University of Virginia, Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall, 291 McCormick Road, P.O. Box 400123Charlottesville, VA, United States
Sukachev Institute of Forest, Russian Academy of SciencesKrasnoyarsk, Russian Federation
National Institute of Aerospace, NASA Langley Research Center, Climate Science and Radiation and Aerosols Branches, 21 Langley Blvd. MS 420Hampton, VA, United States
Center for Problems of Ecology and Productivity of Forests, Russian Academy of SciencesMoscow, Russian Federation
University of Virginia, Alliance for Computational Science and EngineeringCharlottesville, VA, United States

Доп.точки доступа:
Shuman, J.K.; Tchebakova, N.M.; Parfenova, E.I.; Soja, A.J.; Shugart, H.H.; Ershov, D.; Holcomb, K.

[Text] / J. K. Shuman [et al.] // Can. J. For. Res. - 2015. - Vol. 45, Is. 2. - P175-184, DOI 10.1139/cjfr-2014-0138. - Cited References:53. - This work was funded by NASA grants to H.H. Shugart (Terrestrial Ecology10-CARBON10-0068) and A.J. Soja (Inter-Disciplinary Science09-IDS09-116). We thank the anonymous reviewers and V.A. Seamster forhelpful comments on earlier versions of this manuscript, and RobertSmith for figure preparation. We also appreciate the software packagesthat made this work possible: IDRISI developed in 1987 by R.J. Eastmanat Clark University in Worcester, Massachusetts, USA, and ESRI 2008(ESRI ArcGIS version 9.3, ESRI, Redlands, California, USA). . - ISSN 0045-5067. - ISSN 1208-6037РУБ Forestry

Аннотация: Vegetation models are essential tools for projecting large-scale land-cover response to changing climate, which is expected to alter the distribution of biomes and individual species. A large-scale bioclimatic envelope model (RuBCliM) and an individual species based gap model (UVAFME) are used to simulate the Russian forests under current and future climate for two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Results for current conditions are compared between models and assessed against two independent maps of Russian forest biomes and dominant tree species. Comparisons measured with kappa statistics indicate good agreement between the models (kappa values from 0.76 to 0.69), as well as between the model results and two observation-based maps for both species presence and absence (kappa values from 0.70 to 0.43). Agreement between these multiple types of data on forest distribution provides confidence in the projected forest response to changing climate. For future conditions, both models indicate a shift in the dominant biomes from conifers to deciduous leaved species. These projections have implications for feedbacks between the energy budget, carbon cycle, and land cover in the boreal system. The distinct biome and species changes emphasize the need for continued investigation of this landmass that has the size necessary to influence regional and global climate.

WOS

Держатели документа:
Univ Virginia, Dept Environm Sci, Charlottesville, VA 22904 USA.
Russian Acad Sci, Sukachev Inst Forest, Krasnoyarsk, Russia.
NASA, Natl Inst Aerosp, Langley Res Ctr, Climate Sci Branch, Hampton, VA 23681 USA.
NASA, Natl Inst Aerosp, Langley Res Ctr, Radiat & Aerosols Branch, Hampton, VA 23681 USA.
Russian Acad Sci, Ctr Problems Ecol & Prod Forests, Moscow, Russia.
Univ Virginia, Alliance Computat Sci & Engn, Charlottesville, VA 22904 USA.
ИЛ СО РАН

Доп.точки доступа:
Shuman, Jacquelyn K.; Tchebakova, Nadezhda M.; Parfenova, Elena I.; Soja, Amber J.; Shugart, Herman H.; Ershov, Dmitry; Holcomb, Katherine; NASA [10-CARBON10-0068, 09-IDS09-116]

/ A. Kryazhimskiy [et al.] // Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change. - 2015. - Vol. 98. - P245-254, DOI 10.1016/j.techfore.2015.06.003 . - ISSN 0040-1625
Аннотация: This paper deals with the issue of reconciling gaps between stochastic estimates (probability distributions) provided by alternative statistically inaccurate observation/estimation techniques. We employ a posterior reconciliation (integration) method based on selection of mutually compatible test outcomes. Unlike other methods used in this context, the posterior integration method employed does not include assessment of the credibility of the original (prior) estimation sources, which is usually based on analysis of their past performance. The quality of the resulting posterior integrated distribution is evaluated in terms of change in the variance. The method is illustrated by integration of stochastic estimates of the annual net primary production (NPP) of forest ecosystems in seven bioclimatic zones of Russia. The estimates result from the use of two alternative NPP estimation techniques - the landscape-ecosystem approach based on empirical knowledge, and an ensemble of dynamic global vegetation models. The estimates differ by up to 23%. Elimination of these gaps could help better quantify the terrestrial ecosystems' input to the global carbon cycle. The paper suggests a set of candidates for credible integrated NPP estimates for Russia, which harmonize those provided by two alternative sources. © 2015 Elsevier Inc.

Scopus,
WOS

Держатели документа:
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, Laxenburg, Austria
Lomonosov Moscow State University, Faculty of Computational Mathematics and Cybernetics, 2nd Educational Building, Leninskie Gory, Moscow, Russian Federation
Steklov Mathematical Institute, 8 Gubkina str., Moscow, Russian Federation
Sukachev Institute of Forest, Siberian Branch RAS, Akademgorodok, Krasnoyarsk, Russian Federation
Department of International Information, Lviv Polytechnic National University, 12 Bandera str., Lviv, Ukraine
Moscow State Forest University, 1 Institutskayastr., Mytischi, Moscow region, Russian Federation

Доп.точки доступа:
Kryazhimskiy, A.; Rovenskaya, E.; Shvidenko, A.; Gusti, M.; Shchepashchenko, D.; Veshchinskaya, V.

/ N. M. Tchebakova [et al.] // Web Ecol. - 2016. - Vol. 16, Is. 1. - P37-39, DOI 10.5194/we-16-37-2016 . - ISSN 1399-1183
Аннотация: Needle cast caused by fungi of the genus Lophodermium Chevall. is a common disease in pine trees in Siberia. Regression analyses relating needle cast events to climatic variables in 1997-2010 showed that the disease depended most on precipitation of two successive years. Temperature conditions were important to trigger the disease in wetter years. We used our regional bioclimatic envelope model and IPCC scenarios to model the needle cast distribution and its outbreaks in the 21st century. In a warming climate, the needle cast range would shift northwards. By 2020, needle cast outbreaks would already have damaged the largest forest areas. But outbreak areas would decrease by 2080 because the ranges of modeled pathogen and Scots pine, the disease host, would separate: the host tree progression would be halted by the slower permafrost retreat, which would in turn halt the potential pathogen progression. © 2016 Author(s).

Scopus

Держатели документа:
V. N. Sukachev Institute of Forest, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Krasnoyarsk, Russian Federation

Доп.точки доступа:
Tchebakova, N. M.; Kuzmina, N. A.; Parfenova, E. I.; Senashova, V. A.; Kuzmin, S. R.

/ N. M. Tchebakova [et al.] // Environ.Res.Lett. - 2016. - Vol. 11, Is. 3, DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/035016 . - ISSN 1748-9318
Аннотация: Previous regional studies in Siberia have demonstrated climate warming and associated changes in distribution of vegetation and forest types, starting at the end of the 20th century. In this study we used two regional bioclimatic envelope models to simulate potential changes in forest types distribution and developed new regression models to simulate changes in stand height in tablelands and southern mountains of central Siberia under warming 21st century climate. Stand height models were based on forest inventory data (2850 plots). The forest type and stand height maps were superimposed to identify how heights would change in different forest types in future climates. Climate projections from the general circulation model Hadley HadCM3 for emission scenarios B1 and A2 for 2080s were paired with the regional bioclimatic models. Under the harsh A2 scenario, simulated changes included: A 80%-90% decrease in forest-tundra and tundra, a 30% decrease in forest area, a ∼400% increase in forest-steppe, and a 2200% increase in steppe, forest-steppe and steppe would cover 55% of central Siberia. Under sufficiently moist conditions, the southern and middle taiga were simulated to benefit from 21st century climate warming. Habitats suitable for highly-productive forests (≥30-40 m stand height) were simulated to increase at the expense of less productive forests (10-20 m). In response to the more extreme A2 climate the area of these highly-productive forests would increase 10%-25%. Stand height increases of 10 m were simulated over 35%-50% of the current forest area in central Siberia. In the extremely warm A2 climate scenario, the tall trees (25-30 m) would occur over 8%-12% of area in all forest types except forest-tundra by the end of the century. In forest-steppe, trees of 30-40 m may cover some 15% of the area under sufficient moisture. © 2016 IOP Publishing Ltd.

Scopus,
WOS

Держатели документа:
V.N. Sukachev Institute of Forests, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Academgorodok, 50/28, Krasnoyarsk, Russian Federation
US Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Missoula, MT, United States

Доп.точки доступа:
Tchebakova, N. M.; Parfenova, E. I.; Korets, M. A.; Conard, S. G.

/ N. M. Tchebakova, E. I. Parfenova, A. J. Soja ; ed.: L. . Mueller, A. K. Sheudshen, F. . Eulenstein // NOVEL METHODS FOR MONITORING AND MANAGING LAND AND WATER RESOURCES IN : SPRINGER INT PUBLISHING AG, 2016. - P269-285. - (Springer Water), DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-24409-9_10. - Cited References:51 . - РУБ Environmental Sciences + Soil Science + Water Resources

Аннотация: The redistribution of terrestrial ecosystems and individual species is predicted to be profound under Global Climate Model simulations. We modeled the progression of potential vegetation and forest types in Siberia by the end of the twenty-first century by coupling large-scale bioclimatic models of vegetation zones and major conifer species with climatic variables and permafrost using the B1 and A2 Hadley Centre HadCM3 climate change scenarios. In the projected warmer and dryer climate, Siberian taiga forests are predicted to dramatically decrease and shift to the northeast, and forest-steppe, steppe, and novel temperate broadleaf forests are predicted to dominate most of Siberia by 2090. The permafrost should not retreat sufficiently to provide favorable habitats for dark (Pinus sibiric, Abies sibirica, and Picea obovata) taiga, and the permafrost-tolerant L. dahurica taiga should remain the dominant forest type in many current permafrost-lain areas. Water stress and fire-tolerant tree species (Pinus sylvestris and Larix spp.) should have an increased advantage over moisture-loving tree species (P. sibirica, A. sibirica, and P. obovata) in a new climate. Accumulated surface fuel loads due to increased tree mortality from drought, insects, and other factors, especially at the southern forest border and in the Siberian interior (Yakutia), together with an increase in severe fire weather, should also lead to increases in large, high-severity fires that are expected to facilitate vegetation progression toward a new equilibrium with the climate. Adaptation of the forest types and tree species to climate change in the south may be based on the genetic means of individual species and human willingness to aid migration, perhaps by seeding. Additionally, useful and viable crops could be established in agricultural lands instead of failing forests.

WOS,
Смотреть статью

Держатели документа:
Russian Acad Sci, VN Sukachev Inst Forest, Siberian Branch SIF SB RAS, Akademgorodok 50-28, Krasnoyarsk 660036, Russia.
NASA, Langley Res Ctr, 21 Langley Blvd,Mail Stop 420, Hampton, VA 23681 USA.

Доп.точки доступа:
Tchebakova, Nadezhda M.; Parfenova, Elena I.; Soja, Amber J.; Mueller, L... \ed.\; Sheudshen, A.K. \ed.\; Eulenstein, F... \ed.\

/ N. M. Tchebakova [et al.] // Contemp. Probl. Ecol. - 2016. - Vol. 9, Is. 6. - P721-729, DOI 10.1134/S1995425516060135 . - ISSN 1995-4255
Аннотация: The relationships between climate (January and July temperatures, annual precipitation, and a relative moisture index) and the number of foci and intensity of the needle cast disease caused by fungi from the genus Lophodermium Chevall. in the Scots pine nurseries and provenance trials in Krasnoyarsk krai have been studied using multivariate statistics methods. It is found that peaks in the disease occurrence are related to the warm and humid weather conditions. Bioclimatic models of the needle cast ranges have been built using the climate variables; the spatial dynamics of the disease occurrence have been projected under various scenarios of climate warming over the 21st century. Model experiments have shown that the needle cast disease would shift northwards into the new regions in Krasnoyarsk krai, where the phytopathogen has not yet been registered in the nurseries. The largest forest areas exposed to needle cast disease are predicted to be at a high risk of outbreaks by 2020 under moderate climate warming. With a significant warming trend by 2080, potential risk areas will be reduced, because the pine expansion into the permafrost zone should be limited by slow thawing of its active layer. © 2016, Pleiades Publishing, Ltd.

Scopus,
Смотреть статью,
WOS

Держатели документа:
Sukachev Institute of Forest, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Krasnoyarsk, Russian Federation

Доп.точки доступа:
Tchebakova, N. M.; Kuzmina, N. A.; Parfenova, E. I.; Senashova, V. A.; Kuzmin, S. R.

/ T. Yonow [et al.] // J. Pest Sci. - 2018. - P1-16, DOI 10.1007/s10340-017-0938-9 . - ISSN 1612-4758
Аннотация: Reliable niche models are a cornerstone of pest risk analyses, informing biosecurity policies and the management of biological invasions. Because species can invade and establish in areas with climates that are different from those that are found in their native range, it is important to accurately capture the range-limiting mechanisms in models that project climate suitability. We examined a published niche model for the beet armyworm, Spodoptera exigua, to assess its suitability for bioeconomic analyses of its pest threat, and identified issues with the model that rendered it unreliable for this purpose. Consequently, we refitted the CLIMEX model, paying close attention to the biology underpinning the stress mechanisms. This highlighted the necessity of carefully considering how the different stress mechanisms operate, and to select mechanisms which align with knowledge on the species’ biology. We also identified the important role of irrigation in modifying habitat suitability. The refitted model accords with both distribution data and our understanding of the biology of this species, including its seasonal range dynamics. The new model identifies establishment risks to South America, Africa, the Middle East and Asia, and highlights that under current climate, Europe is only climatically suitable during warm seasons when crops are available. The modelling exercise reinforced the importance of understanding the meaning of a location record (e.g. persistent versus ephemeral populations) and of carefully exploring the role of habitat-modifying factors, such as irrigation, in allowing species to persist in otherwise inclement localities. © 2018 Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature

Scopus,
Смотреть статью,
WOS

Держатели документа:
HarvestChoice, InSTePP, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN, United States
GPO Box 1700, Canberra, ACT, Australia
Forest Zoology Department, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Sukachev Institute of Forest, Akademgorodok 50/28, Krasnoyarsk, Russian Federation
Siberian Federal University, 79 Svobodny Pr., Krasnoyarsk, Russian Federation
Private Bag 5, Wembley, WA, Australia

Доп.точки доступа:
Yonow, T.; Kriticos, D. J.; Kirichenko, N.; Ota, N.

/ D. M. Danilina, D. I. Nazimova, M. E. Konovalova ; ed.: N. N. Lashinsky, N. I. Makunina // RESULTS AND PROSPECTS OF GEOBOTANICAL RESEARCH IN SIBERIA, DEDICATED TO : E D P SCIENCES, 2019. - Vol. 16: Conference on Results and Prospects of Geobotanical Research in Siberia (MAY 13-17, 2019, Novosibirsk, RUSSIA). - Ст. UNSP 00045. - (BIO Web of Conferences), DOI 10.1051/bioconf/20191600045. - Cited References:11 . -
Аннотация: The typological diversity of the three climatic facies of Siberian pine forests is considered in various bioclimatic sectors of the Prienisseysky Sayans. In each of the Sayan bioclimatic sectors, Siberian pine forests have a number of characteristic features of floristic composition and phytocenotic structure, restoration-age dynamics, productivity, and renewal process.

WOS

Держатели документа:
RAS, SB, Sukachev Inst Forest, Akademgorodok 50-28, Krasnoyarsk 660036, Russia.

Доп.точки доступа:
Danilina, Dilshad M.; Nazimova, Dina I.; Konovalova, Maria E.; Lashinsky, N.N. \ed.\; Makunina, N.I. \ed.\