: научное издание / A. V. Volokitina, M. A. Sofronov. - Krasnoyarsk : V.N. Sukachev Institute of forest SB RAS, 2002. - 44 с. : ил., табл. - Библиогр.: с. 40-43. - 100 экз. - Б. ц.
Аннотация: The monograph considers problems of vegetation fuel (VF) mapping. Such mapping is indispensable for creation of the information database in the Russian system of forest and other vegetation fires behaviour and consequences forecast. The volume cantains scientific fundamentals of VF mapping as well as methods and techniques of VF mapping at different scales (including computer technologies together with forest inventory data).
Держатели документа:
Институт леса им. В.Н. Сукачева Сибирского отделения Российской академии наук : 660036, Красноярск, Академгородок 50/28
Доп.точки доступа:
Sofronov, Mark Adrianovich
Экземпляры всего: 1
РСФ (1)
Свободны: РСФ (1)
Труды сотрудников ИЛ им. В.Н. Сукачева СО РАН
w10=
Найдено документов в текущей БД: 18
Forest resources of Siberia: conditions, dynamics, monitoring
: материалы временных коллективов / A. S. Shishikin // Boreal forests in a changing world: challenges and needs for action: Proceedings of the International conference August 15-21 2011, Krasnoyarsk, Russia. - Krasnoyarsk : V.N. Sukachev Institute of forest SB RAS, 2011. - С. 51-55. - Библиогр. в конце ст.
Аннотация: iBiological productive capacity of Siberian woodlands is much higher than their recent economic output. Stable and effective forest management could be achieved by an integration of direct wood utilization with other types of exploitation. Recent data enable to forecast the volume of recources with regad to natural or anthropogenic turnover of forest ecosystems. It is suggested that separation of data on the resource itself from the information on socio-economic aspects of its utilization hinders to set up an effective control over forest resources.
Держатели документа:
Институт леса им. В.Н. Сукачева Сибирского отделения Российской академии наук : 660036, Красноярск, Академгородок 50/28
Доп.точки доступа:
Шишикин, Александр Сергеевич
Аннотация: iBiological productive capacity of Siberian woodlands is much higher than their recent economic output. Stable and effective forest management could be achieved by an integration of direct wood utilization with other types of exploitation. Recent data enable to forecast the volume of recources with regad to natural or anthropogenic turnover of forest ecosystems. It is suggested that separation of data on the resource itself from the information on socio-economic aspects of its utilization hinders to set up an effective control over forest resources.
Держатели документа:
Институт леса им. В.Н. Сукачева Сибирского отделения Российской академии наук : 660036, Красноярск, Академгородок 50/28
Доп.точки доступа:
Шишикин, Александр Сергеевич
The forecast of seasonal precipitation trend at the north Helan Mountain and Baiyinaobao regions, Inner Mongolia for the next 20 years
[Text] / Y. . Liu [et al.] // Chin. Sci. Bull. - 2004. - Vol. 49, Is. 4. - P410-415, DOI 10.1360/03wd0410. - Cited References: 19
. - 6. - ISSN 1001-6538
РУБ Multidisciplinary Sciences
Аннотация: By using Caterpillar-SSA analysis method, through the process of embedding, singular value decomposition, grouping and diagonal averaging, the seasonal precipitation trend at north Helan Mountain and Baiyinaobo regions, Inner Mongolia for the next 20 years is forecasted. The results show an increasing precipitation trend from 1992 to 2004. In the subsequent decade the precipitation should reduce quickly, and it will reach a minimum near 2012 to 2014 in both regions. The drought caused by the decrease of the precipitation from May to July in the north Helan Mountain area during the period of 2013-2014 is probably quite similar to that around 1929. Further, the period of precipitation gradual increase follows in the researched regions.
WOS,
Scopus
Держатели документа:
Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Earth Environm, State Key Lab Loess & Quaternary Geol, Xian 710075, Peoples R China
Russian Acad Sci, Sukachev Inst Forest, Krasnoyarsk 660036, Russia
Доп.точки доступа:
Liu, Y...; Shishov, V...; Shi, J.F.; Vaganov, E...; Sun, J.Y.; Cai, Q.F.; Djanseitov, I...; An, Z.S.
Аннотация: By using Caterpillar-SSA analysis method, through the process of embedding, singular value decomposition, grouping and diagonal averaging, the seasonal precipitation trend at north Helan Mountain and Baiyinaobo regions, Inner Mongolia for the next 20 years is forecasted. The results show an increasing precipitation trend from 1992 to 2004. In the subsequent decade the precipitation should reduce quickly, and it will reach a minimum near 2012 to 2014 in both regions. The drought caused by the decrease of the precipitation from May to July in the north Helan Mountain area during the period of 2013-2014 is probably quite similar to that around 1929. Further, the period of precipitation gradual increase follows in the researched regions.
WOS,
Scopus
Держатели документа:
Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Earth Environm, State Key Lab Loess & Quaternary Geol, Xian 710075, Peoples R China
Russian Acad Sci, Sukachev Inst Forest, Krasnoyarsk 660036, Russia
Доп.точки доступа:
Liu, Y...; Shishov, V...; Shi, J.F.; Vaganov, E...; Sun, J.Y.; Cai, Q.F.; Djanseitov, I...; An, Z.S.
Forecasting ecologically hazardous phenomena resulting from the impounding of swamps by the Boguchany reservoir
/ L. V. Karpenko // Geography and Natural Resources. - 2009. - Vol. 30, Is. 2. - P126-130, DOI 10.1016/j.gnr.2009.06.006
. - ISSN 1875-3728
Кл.слова (ненормированные):
Boguchany reservoir -- ecologically hazardous phenomena -- peat -- peat islands -- peat rising to the surface -- swamps -- forecasting method -- hazard assessment -- impoundment -- peat -- swamp -- water quality -- Boguchany Reservoir -- Eurasia -- Krasnoyarsk [Russian Federation] -- Russian Federation
Аннотация: A forecast is made for ecologically hazardous phenomena: peat rising to the surface to form peat islands, their influence on navigation on the Angara river, appearance of peat crumbs, and water quality impairment resulting from the impounding of swamps by the Boguchany reservoir. В© 2009.
Scopus
Держатели документа:
Institute of Forest SB RAS, Krasnoyarsk, Russian Federation
Доп.точки доступа:
Karpenko, L.V.
Кл.слова (ненормированные):
Boguchany reservoir -- ecologically hazardous phenomena -- peat -- peat islands -- peat rising to the surface -- swamps -- forecasting method -- hazard assessment -- impoundment -- peat -- swamp -- water quality -- Boguchany Reservoir -- Eurasia -- Krasnoyarsk [Russian Federation] -- Russian Federation
Аннотация: A forecast is made for ecologically hazardous phenomena: peat rising to the surface to form peat islands, their influence on navigation on the Angara river, appearance of peat crumbs, and water quality impairment resulting from the impounding of swamps by the Boguchany reservoir. В© 2009.
Scopus
Держатели документа:
Institute of Forest SB RAS, Krasnoyarsk, Russian Federation
Доп.точки доступа:
Karpenko, L.V.
Experience in mapping combustible vegetable materials in Central Evenkia
/ A. V. Volokitina // Geography and Natural Resources. - 2009. - Vol. 30, Is. 1. - P66-72, DOI 10.1016/j.gnr.2009.03.013
. - ISSN 1875-3728
Кл.слова (ненормированные):
combustible vegetable materials -- fire behavior forecast -- main transmitters of combustion -- mapping -- permafrost -- vegetation fires -- combustion -- fire behavior -- forecasting method -- forest management -- map -- permafrost -- typology -- vegetable -- Eurasia -- Evenki -- Krasnoyarsk [Russian Federation] -- Russian Federation
Аннотация: Experience in compiling maps for combustible vegetable materials in Central Evenkia using two methods is considered: the conjugate method of two modifications, i.e. using forest management data (sc. 1:100 000), and on the basis of the forest-typological map (sc. 1:25 000); the self-contained method using aerial photographs (sc. 1: 10 000). В© 2009.
Scopus
Держатели документа:
Institute of Forest SB RAS, Krasnoyarsk, Russian Federation
Доп.точки доступа:
Volokitina, A.V.
Кл.слова (ненормированные):
combustible vegetable materials -- fire behavior forecast -- main transmitters of combustion -- mapping -- permafrost -- vegetation fires -- combustion -- fire behavior -- forecasting method -- forest management -- map -- permafrost -- typology -- vegetable -- Eurasia -- Evenki -- Krasnoyarsk [Russian Federation] -- Russian Federation
Аннотация: Experience in compiling maps for combustible vegetable materials in Central Evenkia using two methods is considered: the conjugate method of two modifications, i.e. using forest management data (sc. 1:100 000), and on the basis of the forest-typological map (sc. 1:25 000); the self-contained method using aerial photographs (sc. 1: 10 000). В© 2009.
Scopus
Держатели документа:
Institute of Forest SB RAS, Krasnoyarsk, Russian Federation
Доп.точки доступа:
Volokitina, A.V.
Methods for mapping and medium-range forecasting of fire danger in forests on the basis of weather conditions
/ Ye. I. Ponomarev, A. I. Sukhinin // Mapping Sciences and Remote Sensing. - 2003. - Vol. 40, Is. 4. - P304-310
. - ISSN 0749-3878
Кл.слова (ненормированные):
forest fire -- hazard assessment -- long range forecast -- mapping method -- NOAA satellite -- remote sensing -- weather forecasting
Аннотация: Two Russian researchers outline a method whereby imagery from NOAA-series satellites is used to augment data derived from Russia's network of meteorological stations during extreme fire hazard situations. The focus more specifically is on developing a medium-range forecast of the fire hazard on the basis of repeated imaging and medium-range (10-day, 3-day) weather forecasts, for the purpose of compiling forecast maps of fire danger to support fire detection, prevention, firefighting measures, as well as the timely deployment of personnel and equipment. Translated by Edward Torrey, Alexandria, Virginia, from: Geografiya i prirodnyye resursy, 2002, No. 4, pp. 112-117. В© 2003 by V. H. Winston and Son, Inc. All rights reserved.
Scopus,
Полный текст
Держатели документа:
Institute of Forestry, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Krasnoyarsk, Russian Federation
Доп.точки доступа:
Ponomarev, Ye.I.; Sukhinin, A.I.
Кл.слова (ненормированные):
forest fire -- hazard assessment -- long range forecast -- mapping method -- NOAA satellite -- remote sensing -- weather forecasting
Аннотация: Two Russian researchers outline a method whereby imagery from NOAA-series satellites is used to augment data derived from Russia's network of meteorological stations during extreme fire hazard situations. The focus more specifically is on developing a medium-range forecast of the fire hazard on the basis of repeated imaging and medium-range (10-day, 3-day) weather forecasts, for the purpose of compiling forecast maps of fire danger to support fire detection, prevention, firefighting measures, as well as the timely deployment of personnel and equipment. Translated by Edward Torrey, Alexandria, Virginia, from: Geografiya i prirodnyye resursy, 2002, No. 4, pp. 112-117. В© 2003 by V. H. Winston and Son, Inc. All rights reserved.
Scopus,
Полный текст
Держатели документа:
Institute of Forestry, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Krasnoyarsk, Russian Federation
Доп.точки доступа:
Ponomarev, Ye.I.; Sukhinin, A.I.
Testing of spectrum analysis results in dendrochronology: Possibilities to fit and forecast Long-Term Tree-Ring chronologies
/ V. Shishov [et al.] // International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference Surveying Geology and Mining Ecology Management, SGEM. - 2015. - Vol. 2: 15th International Multidisciplinary Scientific Geoconference and EXPO, SGEM 2015 (18 June 2015 through 24 June 2015, ) Conference code: 153969, Is. 3. - P537-544
. -
Кл.слова (ненормированные):
Climate reconstruction -- Cluster analysis -- Low frequency -- MTM-approach -- Singular spectral analysis -- Spectral decomposition -- Time series -- Tree-ring chronologies -- White noise -- Cluster analysis -- Forestry -- Frequency estimation -- Power spectrum -- Repair -- Spectrum analysis -- Time series -- Time series analysis -- Climate reconstruction -- Low-frequency -- MTM-approach -- Spectral decomposition -- Tree-ring chronologies -- White noise
Аннотация: Tree-ring chronologies (dendrochronological time series) are an important proxy source for oblique high-resolution information about climate and environmental changes in the past and present. Often the time series signals are associated with direct external periodic forcing (e.g., annual irradiance, seasonal moisture regimes, etc.), or with the internal oscillations within biological systems themselves (e.g., age-dependent trends, components of competition, etc). In most cases, the observed signal is interpreted as superposition of different internal and external influences. In most cases due to unstable frequency, amplitude and phase of analyzed signals the significance of power spectrum peaks may be tested by the “red-noise” null hypothesis, with a number of additional assumptions concerning possible causes for the observed instability. The goal of this paper is to verify information losses in the case of testing a power spectrum by the “white-noise” null hypothesis in order to detect significant cycles in dendrochronological time series. The new approach described herein allows us to (1) obtain an adequate spectral decomposition of different tree-ring chronologies; (2) analyze spatial comparisons of different time series, specifying possible causes for disagreement; and (3) build new long-term reconstructions of different climatic series by different cyclical components. Moreover, the approach helps to extend super long-term tree-ring chronologies by low-frequency components, to verify temporal periods in the past for which there are no good statistical estimations, which will enable extension of existing climatic reconstructions. © SGEM2015.
Scopus
Держатели документа:
Siberian Federal University, Krasnoyarsk, Russian Federation
Sukachev Institute of Forest, SB RAS, Krasnoyarsk, Russian Federation
Доп.точки доступа:
Shishov, V.; Ovchinnikov, D.; Koiupchenko, I.; Tychkov, I.; Ovchinnikov, S.
Кл.слова (ненормированные):
Climate reconstruction -- Cluster analysis -- Low frequency -- MTM-approach -- Singular spectral analysis -- Spectral decomposition -- Time series -- Tree-ring chronologies -- White noise -- Cluster analysis -- Forestry -- Frequency estimation -- Power spectrum -- Repair -- Spectrum analysis -- Time series -- Time series analysis -- Climate reconstruction -- Low-frequency -- MTM-approach -- Spectral decomposition -- Tree-ring chronologies -- White noise
Аннотация: Tree-ring chronologies (dendrochronological time series) are an important proxy source for oblique high-resolution information about climate and environmental changes in the past and present. Often the time series signals are associated with direct external periodic forcing (e.g., annual irradiance, seasonal moisture regimes, etc.), or with the internal oscillations within biological systems themselves (e.g., age-dependent trends, components of competition, etc). In most cases, the observed signal is interpreted as superposition of different internal and external influences. In most cases due to unstable frequency, amplitude and phase of analyzed signals the significance of power spectrum peaks may be tested by the “red-noise” null hypothesis, with a number of additional assumptions concerning possible causes for the observed instability. The goal of this paper is to verify information losses in the case of testing a power spectrum by the “white-noise” null hypothesis in order to detect significant cycles in dendrochronological time series. The new approach described herein allows us to (1) obtain an adequate spectral decomposition of different tree-ring chronologies; (2) analyze spatial comparisons of different time series, specifying possible causes for disagreement; and (3) build new long-term reconstructions of different climatic series by different cyclical components. Moreover, the approach helps to extend super long-term tree-ring chronologies by low-frequency components, to verify temporal periods in the past for which there are no good statistical estimations, which will enable extension of existing climatic reconstructions. © SGEM2015.
Scopus
Держатели документа:
Siberian Federal University, Krasnoyarsk, Russian Federation
Sukachev Institute of Forest, SB RAS, Krasnoyarsk, Russian Federation
Доп.точки доступа:
Shishov, V.; Ovchinnikov, D.; Koiupchenko, I.; Tychkov, I.; Ovchinnikov, S.
TESTING OF SPECTRUM ANALYSIS RESULTS IN DENDROCHRONOLOGY: POSSIBILITIES TO FIT AND FORECAST LONG-TERM TREE-RING CHRONOLOGIES
[Text] / V. Shishov [et al.] // WATER RESOURCES, FOREST, MARINE AND OCEAN ECOSYSTEMS, SGEM 2015, VOL II : STEF92 TECHNOLOGY LTD, 2015. - 15th International Multidisciplinary Scientific Geoconference (SGEM) (JUN 18-24, 2015, Albena, BULGARIA). - P537-544. - (International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference-SGEM). - Cited References:15
. -
Рубрики:
FINNISH LAPLAND
PART 1
VARIABILITY
GROWTH
TEMPERATURE
RECORD
Кл.слова (ненормированные):
tree-ring chronologies -- time series -- spectral decomposition -- white -- noise -- climate reconstruction -- MTM-approach -- singular spectral analysis -- cluster analysis -- low frequency
Аннотация: Tree-ring chronologies (dendrochronological time series) are an important proxy source for oblique high-resolution information about climate and environmental changes in the past and present. Often the time series signals are associated with direct external periodic forcing (e.g., annual irradiance, seasonal moisture regimes, etc.), or with the internal oscillations within biological systems themselves (e.g., age-dependent trends, components of competition, etc). In most cases, the observed signal is interpreted as superposition of different internal and external influences. In most cases due to unstable frequency, amplitude and phase of analyzed signals the significance of power spectrum peaks may be tested by the "red-noise" null hypothesis, with a number of additional assumptions concerning possible causes for the observed instability. The goal of this paper is to verify information losses in the case of testing a power spectrum by the "white-noise" null hypothesis in order to detect significant cycles in dendrochronological time series. The new approach described herein allows us to (1) obtain an adequate spectral decomposition of different tree-ring chronologies; (2) analyze spatial comparisons of different time series, specifying possible causes for disagreement; and (3) build new long-term reconstructions of different climatic series by different cyclical components. Moreover, the approach helps to extend super long-term tree-ring chronologies by low-frequency components, to verify temporal periods in the past for which there are no good statistical estimations, which will enable extension of existing climatic reconstructions.
WOS
Держатели документа:
Siberian Fed Univ, Krasnoyarsk, Russia.
SB RAS, Sukachev Inst Forest, Krasnoyarsk, Russia.
Доп.точки доступа:
Shishov, Vladimir; Ovchinnikov, Dmitriy; Koiupchenko, Irina; Tychkov, Ivan; Ovchinnikov, Svjatoslav
Рубрики:
FINNISH LAPLAND
PART 1
VARIABILITY
GROWTH
TEMPERATURE
RECORD
Кл.слова (ненормированные):
tree-ring chronologies -- time series -- spectral decomposition -- white -- noise -- climate reconstruction -- MTM-approach -- singular spectral analysis -- cluster analysis -- low frequency
Аннотация: Tree-ring chronologies (dendrochronological time series) are an important proxy source for oblique high-resolution information about climate and environmental changes in the past and present. Often the time series signals are associated with direct external periodic forcing (e.g., annual irradiance, seasonal moisture regimes, etc.), or with the internal oscillations within biological systems themselves (e.g., age-dependent trends, components of competition, etc). In most cases, the observed signal is interpreted as superposition of different internal and external influences. In most cases due to unstable frequency, amplitude and phase of analyzed signals the significance of power spectrum peaks may be tested by the "red-noise" null hypothesis, with a number of additional assumptions concerning possible causes for the observed instability. The goal of this paper is to verify information losses in the case of testing a power spectrum by the "white-noise" null hypothesis in order to detect significant cycles in dendrochronological time series. The new approach described herein allows us to (1) obtain an adequate spectral decomposition of different tree-ring chronologies; (2) analyze spatial comparisons of different time series, specifying possible causes for disagreement; and (3) build new long-term reconstructions of different climatic series by different cyclical components. Moreover, the approach helps to extend super long-term tree-ring chronologies by low-frequency components, to verify temporal periods in the past for which there are no good statistical estimations, which will enable extension of existing climatic reconstructions.
WOS
Держатели документа:
Siberian Fed Univ, Krasnoyarsk, Russia.
SB RAS, Sukachev Inst Forest, Krasnoyarsk, Russia.
Доп.точки доступа:
Shishov, Vladimir; Ovchinnikov, Dmitriy; Koiupchenko, Irina; Tychkov, Ivan; Ovchinnikov, Svjatoslav
630*6
П 78
П 78
Прогноз динамики лесов Красноярского края
[Текст] : статья / Владимир Алексеевич Соколов [и др.] // Сибирский лесной журнал. - 2017. - № 4. - С. 91-100, DOI 10.15372/SJFS20170408
. - ISSN 2311-1410
Перевод заглавия: Forecast for the dynamics of forests in Krasnoyarsk krai
Кл.слова (ненормированные):
лесной комплекс -- стратегия развития -- прогноз динамики лесного фонда -- лесное хозяйство -- управление лесами -- forest complex -- development strategy -- forecast for forest dynamics -- forestry -- forest management
Аннотация: Динамика лесных экосистем тесно связана с естественными и антропогенными изменениями (сукцессионными процессами, лесными пожарами, ветровалами, очагами вредителей леса, рубками, лесовосстановительными мероприятиями, развитием инфраструктуры, связанной и не связанной с лесным хозяйством, и др.). Модная проблема глобального потепления климата на Земле не рассматривается, поскольку мнения в научном мире неоднозначны. Ретроспективный анализ динамики лесного фонда Красноярского края за 50-летний период позволил дать оценку влияния этих изменений на состояние лесов. Сделан однозначный вывод о существенном ухудшении качественного состава лесного фонда края. Площадь хвойных насаждений уменьшилась на 9 %, а спелых и перестойных в них - на 25 %. Для прогнозирования динамики лесов применялось моделирование природных и антропогенных процессов в лесных экосистемах, при этом учитывалось, что существующая система мероприятий по воспроизводству и уходу за лесом фактически не влияет на динамику лесного фонда. При разработке прогноза использовано положение стратегии развития лесопромышленного комплекса края об увеличении объема заготовки древесины до 37.6 млн м3. Доказано, что заготовка древесины в таком размере неизбежно приведет к перерубу допустимого изъятия древесины по эколого-экономическим соображениям, что негативно отразится на состоянии лесного фонда через 50 лет. Разработанный нами прогноз динамики лесного фонда Красноярского края на следующее 50-летие показал, что при сохранении существующей экстенсивной формы лесоуправления негативные изменения продолжатся такими же темпами, причем наибольшее уменьшение площади будет наблюдаться в сосновой хозсекции (33.3 %) при существенном увеличении площади лиственной (22.7 %). Для улучшения ситуации в лесном секторе России необходимо коренное изменение системы управления лесами.
Dynamics of the forest ecosystems connects closely with the natural and anthropogenic changes (succession processes, forest fires, windfalls, forest insects, forest diseases, forest harvesting, reforestation, the infrastructure development associated and not associated with forestry and so forth). Authors do not consider the up-to-day problem of global warming on the Earth, as opinions of scientists are controversial. Retrospective analysis of forest dynamics of the Krasnoyarsk Territory for the last 50 years has allowed to assess the impact of these changes on condition of forests. The univocal conclusion of deterioration of forest quality has been drawn. Area of coniferous forests has decreased by 9 %, including the 25 % reduction of mature and overmature forest stands. To forecast forest dynamics, modelling of natural and anthropogenic processes in the forest ecosystems has been applied, taking into account that the existing system of measures for reforestation and tending care of forest actually does not affect dynamics of the forests. The provision about increase in forest harvesting volume to 37.6 million м3 of the Development Strategy of the Krasnoyarsk Forest Industrial Complex has been used for forecasting. It has been proved that such scale of forest harvesting will inevitably lead to the over-cutting of ecological and economic accessible allowable cut that will negatively affect the forest condition in 50 years. Our forecast of forest dynamics of the Krasnoyarsk Territory for the next 50 years has showed that negative changes will continue at the same pace under the current extensive form of forest management. What is more, the maximum decrease of forest area might be in pine forests (32.9 %) with the significant increase of broadleaves forests - 22.7 %. To improve the situation in the Russian forest sector, a radical change in the system of forest management is needed.
РИНЦ
Держатели документа:
Институт леса им. В. Н. Сукачева СО РАН
ООО «Лес-Ком»
Доп.точки доступа:
Соколов, Владимир Алексеевич; Sokolov V.A.; Соколова, Настасья Владимировна; Sokolova N.V.; Втюрина, Ольга Петровна; Vtyurina O.P.; Лапин, Евгений Александрович; Lapin E.A.
Перевод заглавия: Forecast for the dynamics of forests in Krasnoyarsk krai
| УДК |
Кл.слова (ненормированные):
лесной комплекс -- стратегия развития -- прогноз динамики лесного фонда -- лесное хозяйство -- управление лесами -- forest complex -- development strategy -- forecast for forest dynamics -- forestry -- forest management
Аннотация: Динамика лесных экосистем тесно связана с естественными и антропогенными изменениями (сукцессионными процессами, лесными пожарами, ветровалами, очагами вредителей леса, рубками, лесовосстановительными мероприятиями, развитием инфраструктуры, связанной и не связанной с лесным хозяйством, и др.). Модная проблема глобального потепления климата на Земле не рассматривается, поскольку мнения в научном мире неоднозначны. Ретроспективный анализ динамики лесного фонда Красноярского края за 50-летний период позволил дать оценку влияния этих изменений на состояние лесов. Сделан однозначный вывод о существенном ухудшении качественного состава лесного фонда края. Площадь хвойных насаждений уменьшилась на 9 %, а спелых и перестойных в них - на 25 %. Для прогнозирования динамики лесов применялось моделирование природных и антропогенных процессов в лесных экосистемах, при этом учитывалось, что существующая система мероприятий по воспроизводству и уходу за лесом фактически не влияет на динамику лесного фонда. При разработке прогноза использовано положение стратегии развития лесопромышленного комплекса края об увеличении объема заготовки древесины до 37.6 млн м3. Доказано, что заготовка древесины в таком размере неизбежно приведет к перерубу допустимого изъятия древесины по эколого-экономическим соображениям, что негативно отразится на состоянии лесного фонда через 50 лет. Разработанный нами прогноз динамики лесного фонда Красноярского края на следующее 50-летие показал, что при сохранении существующей экстенсивной формы лесоуправления негативные изменения продолжатся такими же темпами, причем наибольшее уменьшение площади будет наблюдаться в сосновой хозсекции (33.3 %) при существенном увеличении площади лиственной (22.7 %). Для улучшения ситуации в лесном секторе России необходимо коренное изменение системы управления лесами.
Dynamics of the forest ecosystems connects closely with the natural and anthropogenic changes (succession processes, forest fires, windfalls, forest insects, forest diseases, forest harvesting, reforestation, the infrastructure development associated and not associated with forestry and so forth). Authors do not consider the up-to-day problem of global warming on the Earth, as opinions of scientists are controversial. Retrospective analysis of forest dynamics of the Krasnoyarsk Territory for the last 50 years has allowed to assess the impact of these changes on condition of forests. The univocal conclusion of deterioration of forest quality has been drawn. Area of coniferous forests has decreased by 9 %, including the 25 % reduction of mature and overmature forest stands. To forecast forest dynamics, modelling of natural and anthropogenic processes in the forest ecosystems has been applied, taking into account that the existing system of measures for reforestation and tending care of forest actually does not affect dynamics of the forests. The provision about increase in forest harvesting volume to 37.6 million м3 of the Development Strategy of the Krasnoyarsk Forest Industrial Complex has been used for forecasting. It has been proved that such scale of forest harvesting will inevitably lead to the over-cutting of ecological and economic accessible allowable cut that will negatively affect the forest condition in 50 years. Our forecast of forest dynamics of the Krasnoyarsk Territory for the next 50 years has showed that negative changes will continue at the same pace under the current extensive form of forest management. What is more, the maximum decrease of forest area might be in pine forests (32.9 %) with the significant increase of broadleaves forests - 22.7 %. To improve the situation in the Russian forest sector, a radical change in the system of forest management is needed.
РИНЦ
Держатели документа:
Институт леса им. В. Н. Сукачева СО РАН
ООО «Лес-Ком»
Доп.точки доступа:
Соколов, Владимир Алексеевич; Sokolov V.A.; Соколова, Настасья Владимировна; Sokolova N.V.; Втюрина, Ольга Петровна; Vtyurina O.P.; Лапин, Евгений Александрович; Lapin E.A.
630.43
О-93
О-93
ОЦЕНКА ПИРОГЕННОЙ ЭМИССИИ УГЛЕРОДА НА ТЕРРИТОРИИ НАЦИОНАЛЬНОГО ПАРКА «ШУШЕНСКИЙ БОР»
[Текст] : научное издание / Е. А. Кукавская [и др.] // География и природные ресурсы. - 2019. - № 1. - С. 37-44 : ил., DOI 10.21782/GiPR0206-1619-2019-1(37-44). - Библиогр.: с. 43-44
. - ISSN 0206-1619
Перевод заглавия: Microbiological Assessment of Soils in Coniferous Forests of Central Siberia after Fires of Different Density
Кл.слова (ненормированные):
запасы горючих материалов -- низовые пожары -- карты запасов и выхода углерода при пожарах
Аннотация: Разработана карта запасов органического вещества на поверхности почвы для территории Перовского участкового лесничества национального парка «Шушенский бор» на основе собственных наземных данных по запасам горючих материалов и данных лесоустройства по распределению лесных земель по различным категориям и типам леса. Составлены карты потенциальной эмиссии углерода при различных сценариях развития низовых пожаров в зависимости от их интенсивности. Установлено, что при пожарах от низкой до средней интенсивности потенциальный выход углерода на территории всего лесничества оценивается в 70,6 тыс. т, а при высокоинтенсивных пожарах — 142,9 тыс. т. Выявлен значительный вклад пирогенной эмиссии на торфяных почвах. На основе официальных данных по горимости за период с 1991 по 2016 г. и с использованием разработанных карт рассчитана фактическая эмиссия углерода при пожарах на территории равнинной части национального парка, которая составила 3,2 тыс. т. Определено, что на долю живого напочвенного покрова приходился 21 % общей эмиссии углерода, опада и подстилки — 79 %. Приведено распределение пирогенной эмиссии углерода по месяцам пожароопасного сезона. Установлено, что фактическая ежегодная эмиссия углерода за исследуемый период составила в среднем 121 т, при этом 92 % приходилось на весенний период, характеризующийся большей площадью, пройденной огнем. Рекомендовано использование результатов исследования для прогнозирования характеристик и последствий пожаров, а также для оценки влияния пожаров на региональный бюджет углерода и качество окружающей среды
The map of reserves of organic matter on the soil surface was developed for the Perovskoe forestry of Shushenskii Bor National Park with a use of our ground-based data on fuel loads as well as forest inventory data on the distribution of forested lands by different categories and forest types. We compiled the maps of potential carbon emissions for different scenarios of surface fires depending on their severity. The potential carbon emissions from fires of low to moderate severity and of high severity on the territory of the entire forestry were estimated at 70.6 and 142.9 thousand tons, respectively. A significant contribution of pyrogenic emissions from peat soils was revealed. Based on official fire data from 1991 to 2016 and using the maps developed, we calculated the actual carbon emissions from fires on the study territory of National Park which amounted to 3.2 thousand tons. It was determined that the living ground cover accounted for 21 % of the total carbon emissions, with 79 % corresponding to litter and duff. The distribution of the fire carbon emissions by months of the fire season is provided. Actual annual carbon emissions due to fires averaged was 121 tons for the period studied, with 92 % emitted due to spring fires dominating the area. The results obtained could be used to forecast fire behavior and effects as well as to estimate fire impact on regional carbon budget and environmental quality
СТАТЬЯ В РИНЦ
: 660036, Красноярск, Академгородок, 50, стр. 28
Доп.точки доступа:
Кукавская, Елена Александровна; Kukavskaya, Elena Alexandrovna; Буряк, Людмила Викторовна; Buryak L.V.; Каленская, О.П.; Kalenskaya O.P.; Толмачёв, А.В.; Tolmachev A.V.; Жила, Сергей Викторович; Zhila Sergey Viktorovich; Барабанцова, А.Е.; Barabancova A.E.
Перевод заглавия: Microbiological Assessment of Soils in Coniferous Forests of Central Siberia after Fires of Different Density
| УДК |
Кл.слова (ненормированные):
запасы горючих материалов -- низовые пожары -- карты запасов и выхода углерода при пожарах
Аннотация: Разработана карта запасов органического вещества на поверхности почвы для территории Перовского участкового лесничества национального парка «Шушенский бор» на основе собственных наземных данных по запасам горючих материалов и данных лесоустройства по распределению лесных земель по различным категориям и типам леса. Составлены карты потенциальной эмиссии углерода при различных сценариях развития низовых пожаров в зависимости от их интенсивности. Установлено, что при пожарах от низкой до средней интенсивности потенциальный выход углерода на территории всего лесничества оценивается в 70,6 тыс. т, а при высокоинтенсивных пожарах — 142,9 тыс. т. Выявлен значительный вклад пирогенной эмиссии на торфяных почвах. На основе официальных данных по горимости за период с 1991 по 2016 г. и с использованием разработанных карт рассчитана фактическая эмиссия углерода при пожарах на территории равнинной части национального парка, которая составила 3,2 тыс. т. Определено, что на долю живого напочвенного покрова приходился 21 % общей эмиссии углерода, опада и подстилки — 79 %. Приведено распределение пирогенной эмиссии углерода по месяцам пожароопасного сезона. Установлено, что фактическая ежегодная эмиссия углерода за исследуемый период составила в среднем 121 т, при этом 92 % приходилось на весенний период, характеризующийся большей площадью, пройденной огнем. Рекомендовано использование результатов исследования для прогнозирования характеристик и последствий пожаров, а также для оценки влияния пожаров на региональный бюджет углерода и качество окружающей среды
The map of reserves of organic matter on the soil surface was developed for the Perovskoe forestry of Shushenskii Bor National Park with a use of our ground-based data on fuel loads as well as forest inventory data on the distribution of forested lands by different categories and forest types. We compiled the maps of potential carbon emissions for different scenarios of surface fires depending on their severity. The potential carbon emissions from fires of low to moderate severity and of high severity on the territory of the entire forestry were estimated at 70.6 and 142.9 thousand tons, respectively. A significant contribution of pyrogenic emissions from peat soils was revealed. Based on official fire data from 1991 to 2016 and using the maps developed, we calculated the actual carbon emissions from fires on the study territory of National Park which amounted to 3.2 thousand tons. It was determined that the living ground cover accounted for 21 % of the total carbon emissions, with 79 % corresponding to litter and duff. The distribution of the fire carbon emissions by months of the fire season is provided. Actual annual carbon emissions due to fires averaged was 121 tons for the period studied, with 92 % emitted due to spring fires dominating the area. The results obtained could be used to forecast fire behavior and effects as well as to estimate fire impact on regional carbon budget and environmental quality
СТАТЬЯ В РИНЦ
: 660036, Красноярск, Академгородок, 50, стр. 28
Доп.точки доступа:
Кукавская, Елена Александровна; Kukavskaya, Elena Alexandrovna; Буряк, Людмила Викторовна; Buryak L.V.; Каленская, О.П.; Kalenskaya O.P.; Толмачёв, А.В.; Tolmachev A.V.; Жила, Сергей Викторович; Zhila Sergey Viktorovich; Барабанцова, А.Е.; Barabancova A.E.
On the issue of fluctuations in the extreme maximum runoff under the conditions of the expected climate change in the Marmarik river basin
/ V. Margaryan, E. Fedotova // E3S Web of Conferences : EDP Sciences, 2020. - Vol. 149: 2019 Regional Problems of Earth Remote Sensing, RPERS 2019 (10 September 2019 through 13 September 2019, ) Conference code: 157574. - Ст. 03010, DOI 10.1051/e3sconf/202014903010
. -
Кл.слова (ненормированные):
Atmospheric temperature -- Remote sensing -- Rivers -- Runoff -- Watersheds -- Absolute values -- Air temperature -- Atmospheric precipitation -- Average air temperature -- Degree of change -- Global climate changes -- Observational data -- Source material -- Climate change
Аннотация: The paper analyzes the peculiarities of formation of the absolute maximum runoff of the Marmarik river evaluates the patterns of multi-year fluctuations of maximum runoff rates in different river sites and gives a forecast of the maximum runoff in the context of global climate change. Absolute values of the maximum river runoff for different scenarios of climate change are estimated. The actual observational data of Armhydromet for maximum runoff rate, the air temperature and precipitation were used as the source material. As a result of the study, it turned out that there is only a tendency to decrease in the values of maximum runoff. It turned out that for all scenarios and cases in the Marmarik river basin, a different degree of changes in the maximum flow is observed. Moreover, the largest decrease in the maximum runoff of the Marmarik river basin is expected under the conditions of an increase in the average air temperature of the spring season by 2,7 - 3,9 degrees Celsius and a decrease in the amount of spring atmospheric precipitation by 2,4 - 2,6 %. © The Authors, published by EDP Sciences 2020.
Scopus
Держатели документа:
Yerevan State University, Department of Physical Geography and Hydrometeorology, Faculty of Geography and Geology, Yerevan, Armenia
Sukachev Institute of Forest Sb Ras, Frc Ksc Sb Ras, Krasnoyarsk, Russian Federation
Sfu, Krasnoyarsk, Russian Federation
Доп.точки доступа:
Margaryan, V.; Fedotova, E.
Кл.слова (ненормированные):
Atmospheric temperature -- Remote sensing -- Rivers -- Runoff -- Watersheds -- Absolute values -- Air temperature -- Atmospheric precipitation -- Average air temperature -- Degree of change -- Global climate changes -- Observational data -- Source material -- Climate change
Аннотация: The paper analyzes the peculiarities of formation of the absolute maximum runoff of the Marmarik river evaluates the patterns of multi-year fluctuations of maximum runoff rates in different river sites and gives a forecast of the maximum runoff in the context of global climate change. Absolute values of the maximum river runoff for different scenarios of climate change are estimated. The actual observational data of Armhydromet for maximum runoff rate, the air temperature and precipitation were used as the source material. As a result of the study, it turned out that there is only a tendency to decrease in the values of maximum runoff. It turned out that for all scenarios and cases in the Marmarik river basin, a different degree of changes in the maximum flow is observed. Moreover, the largest decrease in the maximum runoff of the Marmarik river basin is expected under the conditions of an increase in the average air temperature of the spring season by 2,7 - 3,9 degrees Celsius and a decrease in the amount of spring atmospheric precipitation by 2,4 - 2,6 %. © The Authors, published by EDP Sciences 2020.
Scopus
Держатели документа:
Yerevan State University, Department of Physical Geography and Hydrometeorology, Faculty of Geography and Geology, Yerevan, Armenia
Sukachev Institute of Forest Sb Ras, Frc Ksc Sb Ras, Krasnoyarsk, Russian Federation
Sfu, Krasnoyarsk, Russian Federation
Доп.точки доступа:
Margaryan, V.; Fedotova, E.
Obtaining time series of LAI to predict crop yield
/ E. V. Fedotova, Yu. A. Maglinets, R. V. Brezhnev, A. G. Vyrvinskiy // Sovrem. Probl. Distancionnogo Zondirovania Zemli kosm. - 2020. - Vol. 17, Is. 4. - С. 195-203, DOI 10.21046/2070-7401-2020-17-4-195-203
. - ISSN 2070-7401
Кл.слова (ненормированные):
Data fusion -- Krasnoyarsk Krai -- LAI -- Landsat-8 OLI -- NDVI -- Sentinel-2 -- Yield forecast
Аннотация: Evaluation of vegetation bio-productivity, yield prediction, is effectively carried out using simulation models of plant growth. To calculate the value of the aboveground biomass in these models, the leaf area index (LAI) is used. In the agromonitoring service of the Institute of Space and Information Technologies, a productivity forecasting component is being developed using available field map systems showing crops and remote sensing data in the public domain. In this paper, we propose an approach to solving the problem of obtaining the LAI time series during the growing season for agricultural objects. Landsat-8 OLI and Sentinel-2 medium resolution data are used. These data have time resolution restrictions. The use of daily MODIS data is not possible due to their low spatial resolution, taking into account the typical size of agricultural fields of Krasnoyarsk region central part. Algorithms for data fusion with low and medium spatial resolutions are considered to obtain NDVI with the necessary frequency in the absence of medium-resolution data. The construction of the NDVI using data from different systems for LAI estimation required the introduction of additive coefficients for time series alignment using the VEGA Pro service as the base values. The model of calculating LAI from NDVI in linear exponential form is used. The developed approach allows the LAI assessment with the frequency necessary for the work of the predictive model for yield estimating. © 2020 Space Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Scopus
Держатели документа:
Siberian Federal University, Krasnoyarsk, 660074, Russian Federation
Sukachev Institute of Forest SB RAS, Krasnoyarsk Scientific Center SB RAS, Krasnoyarsk, 660036, Russian Federation
Доп.точки доступа:
Fedotova, E. V.; Maglinets, Yu. A.; Brezhnev, R. V.; Vyrvinskiy, A. G.
Кл.слова (ненормированные):
Data fusion -- Krasnoyarsk Krai -- LAI -- Landsat-8 OLI -- NDVI -- Sentinel-2 -- Yield forecast
Аннотация: Evaluation of vegetation bio-productivity, yield prediction, is effectively carried out using simulation models of plant growth. To calculate the value of the aboveground biomass in these models, the leaf area index (LAI) is used. In the agromonitoring service of the Institute of Space and Information Technologies, a productivity forecasting component is being developed using available field map systems showing crops and remote sensing data in the public domain. In this paper, we propose an approach to solving the problem of obtaining the LAI time series during the growing season for agricultural objects. Landsat-8 OLI and Sentinel-2 medium resolution data are used. These data have time resolution restrictions. The use of daily MODIS data is not possible due to their low spatial resolution, taking into account the typical size of agricultural fields of Krasnoyarsk region central part. Algorithms for data fusion with low and medium spatial resolutions are considered to obtain NDVI with the necessary frequency in the absence of medium-resolution data. The construction of the NDVI using data from different systems for LAI estimation required the introduction of additive coefficients for time series alignment using the VEGA Pro service as the base values. The model of calculating LAI from NDVI in linear exponential form is used. The developed approach allows the LAI assessment with the frequency necessary for the work of the predictive model for yield estimating. © 2020 Space Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Scopus
Держатели документа:
Siberian Federal University, Krasnoyarsk, 660074, Russian Federation
Sukachev Institute of Forest SB RAS, Krasnoyarsk Scientific Center SB RAS, Krasnoyarsk, 660036, Russian Federation
Доп.точки доступа:
Fedotova, E. V.; Maglinets, Yu. A.; Brezhnev, R. V.; Vyrvinskiy, A. G.
Orographic factors as a predictor of the spread of the Siberian silk moth outbreak in the mountainous Southern Taiga forests of Siberia
/ S. M. Sultson, A. A. Goroshko, S. V. Verkhovets [et al.] // Land. - 2021. - Vol. 10, Is. 2. - Ст. 115. - P1-16, DOI 10.3390/land10020115
. - ISSN 2073-445X
Кл.слова (ненормированные):
Dendrolimus sibiricus -- Digital elevation model -- Forest dam-age -- Forest pathology -- Forest type -- Monitoring -- Siberian fir (Abies sibirica L.) -- Siberian stone pine (Pinus sibirica Du Tour) -- Spatiotemporal dynamics
Аннотация: This research is dedicated to solving an urgent problem associated with the large-scale destruction of taiga forests by Siberian silk moth (Dendrolimus sibiricus) outbreaks. The dynamics of the damage to dark coniferous forest stands induced by the Siberian silk moth outbreaks in mid-altitude mountains were studied. A hypothesis was formulated based on the fundamental influence of the orography on the phytophage’s dispersal within the landscape, along with the climate, which acts as a secondary predictor—a catalyst for outbreaks. The study was carried out using Landsat?8 satellite imagery time-series (from 2018 to 2020). The data were verified using a field forest pathological survey of the territory. An assessment of the defoliated forest area and damage association with the landscape was carried out using an Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) digital elevation model. The assessment was aimed to detail the forecast parameters for an outbreak development in mid-altitude mountains using the orographic features—altitude, terrain slope, and slope aspect. Early warnings of phytophagous insect outbreaks in mountain southern taiga should be focused on the permanent monitoring of dark coniferous stands of the mossy group of forest types, covering altitude levels from 400 to 600 m, located on gentle terrains and slopes of up to 15 degrees. The greatest vulnerability to phytophage impacts was characterized as areas located at altitudes from 400 to 600 m. The upper limit of D. sibiricus distribution was 900 m above sea level. The results obtained provide comprehensive information on the Siberian silk moth potential reserves within the study area with the possibility of extrapolation to similar territories. The data will make it possible to model pest outbreaks based on orography and improve the forest pathological monitoring methods at the regional level. © 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.
Scopus
Держатели документа:
Scientific Laboratory of Forest Health, Reshetnev Siberian State University of Science and Technology, 31, Krasnoyarskii Rabochii prospekt, Krasnoyarsk, 660037, Russian Federation
Sukachev Institute of Forest, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Science, 50, bil. 28, Akademgorodok, Krasnoyarsk, 660036, Russian Federation
Доп.точки доступа:
Sultson, S. M.; Goroshko, A. A.; Verkhovets, S. V.; Mikhaylov, P. V.; Ivanov, V. A.; Demidko, D. A.; Kulakov, S. S.
Кл.слова (ненормированные):
Dendrolimus sibiricus -- Digital elevation model -- Forest dam-age -- Forest pathology -- Forest type -- Monitoring -- Siberian fir (Abies sibirica L.) -- Siberian stone pine (Pinus sibirica Du Tour) -- Spatiotemporal dynamics
Аннотация: This research is dedicated to solving an urgent problem associated with the large-scale destruction of taiga forests by Siberian silk moth (Dendrolimus sibiricus) outbreaks. The dynamics of the damage to dark coniferous forest stands induced by the Siberian silk moth outbreaks in mid-altitude mountains were studied. A hypothesis was formulated based on the fundamental influence of the orography on the phytophage’s dispersal within the landscape, along with the climate, which acts as a secondary predictor—a catalyst for outbreaks. The study was carried out using Landsat?8 satellite imagery time-series (from 2018 to 2020). The data were verified using a field forest pathological survey of the territory. An assessment of the defoliated forest area and damage association with the landscape was carried out using an Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) digital elevation model. The assessment was aimed to detail the forecast parameters for an outbreak development in mid-altitude mountains using the orographic features—altitude, terrain slope, and slope aspect. Early warnings of phytophagous insect outbreaks in mountain southern taiga should be focused on the permanent monitoring of dark coniferous stands of the mossy group of forest types, covering altitude levels from 400 to 600 m, located on gentle terrains and slopes of up to 15 degrees. The greatest vulnerability to phytophage impacts was characterized as areas located at altitudes from 400 to 600 m. The upper limit of D. sibiricus distribution was 900 m above sea level. The results obtained provide comprehensive information on the Siberian silk moth potential reserves within the study area with the possibility of extrapolation to similar territories. The data will make it possible to model pest outbreaks based on orography and improve the forest pathological monitoring methods at the regional level. © 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.
Scopus
Держатели документа:
Scientific Laboratory of Forest Health, Reshetnev Siberian State University of Science and Technology, 31, Krasnoyarskii Rabochii prospekt, Krasnoyarsk, 660037, Russian Federation
Sukachev Institute of Forest, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Science, 50, bil. 28, Akademgorodok, Krasnoyarsk, 660036, Russian Federation
Доп.точки доступа:
Sultson, S. M.; Goroshko, A. A.; Verkhovets, S. V.; Mikhaylov, P. V.; Ivanov, V. A.; Demidko, D. A.; Kulakov, S. S.
Prospects of using tree-ring earlywood and latewood width for reconstruction of crops yield on example of south Siberia
/ E. A. Babushkina, D. F. Zhirnova, L. V. Belokopytova [et al.] // Forests. - 2021. - Vol. 12, Is. 2. - Ст. 174. - P1-19, DOI 10.3390/f12020174
. - ISSN 1999-4907
Кл.слова (ненормированные):
Crops failures -- Earlywood width -- Latewood width -- Reconstruction model -- Semiarid conditions -- Siberian larch -- Small grain crops -- Tree-ring chronologies -- Arid regions -- Climate models -- Forestry -- Rain -- Separation -- Springs (components) -- Temperature -- Climatic variability -- Crop failures -- Larix sibirica -- Low temperature sensitivity -- Semi-arid region -- Spring wheat -- Study areas -- Tree-ring width -- Crops
Аннотация: Improvement of dendrochronological crops yield reconstruction by separate application of earlywood and latewood width chronologies succeeded in rain-fed semiarid region. (1) Background: Tree-ring width chronologies have been successfully applied for crops yield reconstruction models. We propose application of separated earlywood and latewood width chronologies as possible pre-dictors improving the fitness of reconstruction models. (2) Methods: The generalized yield series of main crops (spring wheat, spring barley, oats) were investigated in rain-fed and irrigated areas in semiarid steppes of South Siberia. Chronologies of earlywood, latewood, and total ring width of Siberian larch (Larix sibirica Ledeb.) growing in forest-steppe in the middle of the study area were tested as predictors of yield reconstruction models. (3) Results: In the rain-fed territory, separation of earlywood and latewood allowed increasing variation of yield explained by reconstruction model from 17.4 to 20.5%, whereas total climatic-driven component of variation was 41.5%. However, both tree-ring based models explained only 7.7% of yield variation in the irrigated territory (climate inclusion increased it to 34.8%). Low temperature sensitivity of larch growth was the main limitation of the model. A 240-year (1780–2019) history of crop failures and yield variation dynamics were estimated from the actual data and the best reconstruction model. (4) Conclusions: Presently in the study region, breeding of the environment-resistant crops varieties compensates the increase of temperature in the yield dynamics, preventing severe harvest losses. Tree-ring based reconstructions may help to understand and forecast response of the crops to the climatic variability, and also the probability of crop failures, particularly in the rain-fed territories. © 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.
Scopus
Держатели документа:
Khakass Technical Institute, Siberian Federal University, Abakan, 655017, Russian Federation
Birbal Sahni Institute of Palaeosciences, Lucknow, 226 007, India
Department of Crop Production, Breeding and Seed Development, Krasnoyarsk State Agrarian University, Krasnoyarsk, 660049, Russian Federation
Rectorate, Siberian Federal University, Krasnoyarsk, 660036, Russian Federation
Sukachev Institute of Forest, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Science, Krasnoyarsk, 660036, Russian Federation
Доп.точки доступа:
Babushkina, E. A.; Zhirnova, D. F.; Belokopytova, L. V.; Mehrotra, N.; Shah, S. K.; Keler, V. V.; Vaganov, E. A.
Кл.слова (ненормированные):
Crops failures -- Earlywood width -- Latewood width -- Reconstruction model -- Semiarid conditions -- Siberian larch -- Small grain crops -- Tree-ring chronologies -- Arid regions -- Climate models -- Forestry -- Rain -- Separation -- Springs (components) -- Temperature -- Climatic variability -- Crop failures -- Larix sibirica -- Low temperature sensitivity -- Semi-arid region -- Spring wheat -- Study areas -- Tree-ring width -- Crops
Аннотация: Improvement of dendrochronological crops yield reconstruction by separate application of earlywood and latewood width chronologies succeeded in rain-fed semiarid region. (1) Background: Tree-ring width chronologies have been successfully applied for crops yield reconstruction models. We propose application of separated earlywood and latewood width chronologies as possible pre-dictors improving the fitness of reconstruction models. (2) Methods: The generalized yield series of main crops (spring wheat, spring barley, oats) were investigated in rain-fed and irrigated areas in semiarid steppes of South Siberia. Chronologies of earlywood, latewood, and total ring width of Siberian larch (Larix sibirica Ledeb.) growing in forest-steppe in the middle of the study area were tested as predictors of yield reconstruction models. (3) Results: In the rain-fed territory, separation of earlywood and latewood allowed increasing variation of yield explained by reconstruction model from 17.4 to 20.5%, whereas total climatic-driven component of variation was 41.5%. However, both tree-ring based models explained only 7.7% of yield variation in the irrigated territory (climate inclusion increased it to 34.8%). Low temperature sensitivity of larch growth was the main limitation of the model. A 240-year (1780–2019) history of crop failures and yield variation dynamics were estimated from the actual data and the best reconstruction model. (4) Conclusions: Presently in the study region, breeding of the environment-resistant crops varieties compensates the increase of temperature in the yield dynamics, preventing severe harvest losses. Tree-ring based reconstructions may help to understand and forecast response of the crops to the climatic variability, and also the probability of crop failures, particularly in the rain-fed territories. © 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.
Scopus
Держатели документа:
Khakass Technical Institute, Siberian Federal University, Abakan, 655017, Russian Federation
Birbal Sahni Institute of Palaeosciences, Lucknow, 226 007, India
Department of Crop Production, Breeding and Seed Development, Krasnoyarsk State Agrarian University, Krasnoyarsk, 660049, Russian Federation
Rectorate, Siberian Federal University, Krasnoyarsk, 660036, Russian Federation
Sukachev Institute of Forest, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Science, Krasnoyarsk, 660036, Russian Federation
Доп.точки доступа:
Babushkina, E. A.; Zhirnova, D. F.; Belokopytova, L. V.; Mehrotra, N.; Shah, S. K.; Keler, V. V.; Vaganov, E. A.
Global fading of the temperature–growth coupling at alpine and polar treelines
/ J. J. Camarero, A. Gazol, R. Sanchez-Salguero [et al.] // Global Change Biol. - 2021, DOI 10.1111/gcb.15530
. - Article in press. - ISSN 1354-1013
Кл.слова (ненормированные):
climate warming -- forest limit -- growth model -- mountain ecosystems -- tree rings
Аннотация: Climate warming is expected to positively alter upward and poleward treelines which are controlled by low temperature and a short growing season. Despite the importance of treelines as a bioassay of climate change, a global field assessment and posterior forecasting of tree growth at annual scales is lacking. Using annually resolved tree-ring data located across Eurasia and the Americas, we quantified and modeled the relationship between temperature and radial growth at treeline during the 20th century. We then tested whether this temperature–growth association will remain stable during the 21st century using a forward model under two climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). During the 20th century, growth enhancements were common in most sites, and temperature and growth showed positive trends. Interestingly, the relationship between temperature and growth trends was contingent on tree age suggesting biogeographic patterns in treeline growth are contingent on local factors besides climate warming. Simulations forecast temperature–growth decoupling during the 21st century. The growing season at treeline is projected to lengthen and growth rates would increase and become less dependent on temperature rise. These forecasts illustrate how growth may decouple from climate warming in cold regions and near the margins of tree existence. Such projected temperature–growth decoupling could impact ecosystem processes in mountain and polar biomes, with feedbacks on climate warming. © 2021 John Wiley & Sons Ltd
Scopus
Держатели документа:
Instituto Pirenaico de Ecologia (IPE-CSIC, Zaragoza, Spain
Depto. de Sistemas Fisicos, Quimicos y Naturales, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Sevilla, Spain
Centro de Investigacion en Ecosistemas de la Patagonia (CIEP), Coyhaique, Chile
Natural Resources Canada, Pacific Forestry Centre, Victoria, BC, Canada
Departament de Biologia Evolutiva, Ecologia i Ciencies Ambientals, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
Centre for Ecological Research and Forestry Applications (CREAF), Bellatera, Spain
Centre d'Etudes Nordiques (CEN), Univ. Laval, Quebec, QC, Canada
Dip. TeSAF, Universita degli Studi di Padova, Legnaro (PD), Italy
Department of Botany and Plant Sciences, University of California, Riverside, CA, United States
Nepal Academy of Science and Technology, Kathmandu, Nepal
CAS Key Laboratory of Tropical Forest Ecology, Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Yunnan, China
Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, Trondheim, Norway
CNRS Cerege, Technopole de L'Environnement Arbois-Mediterranee, Aix en Provence, France
Institute of Ecology and Geography, Siberian Federal University, Krasnoyarsk, Russian Federation
V.N.Sukachev Institute of Forest SB RAS, Federal Research Center ‘Krasnoyarsk Science Center SB RAS’, Krasnoyarsk, Russian Federation
Centre d'Etudes nordiques (CEN), Univ. Quebec a Trois-RivieresQC, Canada
Laboratory of Alpine Ecology, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Norwegian Biodiversity Information Centre, Trondheim, Norway
Institute of Plant and Animal Ecology, UrB RAS, Ekaterinburg, Russian Federation
EiFAB-iuFOR, University of Valladolid, Soria, Spain
Department of Biological Sciences, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
Department of Biology, University of Turku, Turku, Finland
Department of Geography, M.V. Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russian Federation
DendroGreif, Institute of Botany and Landscape Ecology, Univ. Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany
Доп.точки доступа:
Camarero, J. J.; Gazol, A.; Sanchez-Salguero, R.; Fajardo, A.; McIntire, E. J.B.; Gutierrez, E.; Batllori, E.; Boudreau, S.; Carrer, M.; Diez, J.; Dufour-Tremblay, G.; Gaire, N. P.; Hofgaard, A.; Jomelli, V.; Kirdyanov, A. V.; Levesque, E.; Liang, E.; Linares, J. C.; Mathisen, I. E.; Moiseev, P. A.; Sanguesa-Barreda, G.; Shrestha, K. B.; Toivonen, J. M.; Tutubalina, O. V.; Wilmking, M.
Кл.слова (ненормированные):
climate warming -- forest limit -- growth model -- mountain ecosystems -- tree rings
Аннотация: Climate warming is expected to positively alter upward and poleward treelines which are controlled by low temperature and a short growing season. Despite the importance of treelines as a bioassay of climate change, a global field assessment and posterior forecasting of tree growth at annual scales is lacking. Using annually resolved tree-ring data located across Eurasia and the Americas, we quantified and modeled the relationship between temperature and radial growth at treeline during the 20th century. We then tested whether this temperature–growth association will remain stable during the 21st century using a forward model under two climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). During the 20th century, growth enhancements were common in most sites, and temperature and growth showed positive trends. Interestingly, the relationship between temperature and growth trends was contingent on tree age suggesting biogeographic patterns in treeline growth are contingent on local factors besides climate warming. Simulations forecast temperature–growth decoupling during the 21st century. The growing season at treeline is projected to lengthen and growth rates would increase and become less dependent on temperature rise. These forecasts illustrate how growth may decouple from climate warming in cold regions and near the margins of tree existence. Such projected temperature–growth decoupling could impact ecosystem processes in mountain and polar biomes, with feedbacks on climate warming. © 2021 John Wiley & Sons Ltd
Scopus
Держатели документа:
Instituto Pirenaico de Ecologia (IPE-CSIC, Zaragoza, Spain
Depto. de Sistemas Fisicos, Quimicos y Naturales, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Sevilla, Spain
Centro de Investigacion en Ecosistemas de la Patagonia (CIEP), Coyhaique, Chile
Natural Resources Canada, Pacific Forestry Centre, Victoria, BC, Canada
Departament de Biologia Evolutiva, Ecologia i Ciencies Ambientals, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
Centre for Ecological Research and Forestry Applications (CREAF), Bellatera, Spain
Centre d'Etudes Nordiques (CEN), Univ. Laval, Quebec, QC, Canada
Dip. TeSAF, Universita degli Studi di Padova, Legnaro (PD), Italy
Department of Botany and Plant Sciences, University of California, Riverside, CA, United States
Nepal Academy of Science and Technology, Kathmandu, Nepal
CAS Key Laboratory of Tropical Forest Ecology, Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Yunnan, China
Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, Trondheim, Norway
CNRS Cerege, Technopole de L'Environnement Arbois-Mediterranee, Aix en Provence, France
Institute of Ecology and Geography, Siberian Federal University, Krasnoyarsk, Russian Federation
V.N.Sukachev Institute of Forest SB RAS, Federal Research Center ‘Krasnoyarsk Science Center SB RAS’, Krasnoyarsk, Russian Federation
Centre d'Etudes nordiques (CEN), Univ. Quebec a Trois-RivieresQC, Canada
Laboratory of Alpine Ecology, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Norwegian Biodiversity Information Centre, Trondheim, Norway
Institute of Plant and Animal Ecology, UrB RAS, Ekaterinburg, Russian Federation
EiFAB-iuFOR, University of Valladolid, Soria, Spain
Department of Biological Sciences, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
Department of Biology, University of Turku, Turku, Finland
Department of Geography, M.V. Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russian Federation
DendroGreif, Institute of Botany and Landscape Ecology, Univ. Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany
Доп.точки доступа:
Camarero, J. J.; Gazol, A.; Sanchez-Salguero, R.; Fajardo, A.; McIntire, E. J.B.; Gutierrez, E.; Batllori, E.; Boudreau, S.; Carrer, M.; Diez, J.; Dufour-Tremblay, G.; Gaire, N. P.; Hofgaard, A.; Jomelli, V.; Kirdyanov, A. V.; Levesque, E.; Liang, E.; Linares, J. C.; Mathisen, I. E.; Moiseev, P. A.; Sanguesa-Barreda, G.; Shrestha, K. B.; Toivonen, J. M.; Tutubalina, O. V.; Wilmking, M.
Global fading of the temperature-growth coupling at alpine and polar treelines
/ J. J. Camarero, A. Gazol, R. Sanchez-Salguero [et al.] // Glob. Change Biol. - 2021, DOI 10.1111/gcb.15530. - Cited References:64. - We thank all people who participated in fieldwork and sample processing. This work was supported by the Spanish projects AMB95-0160, REN2002-04268-C02, and CGL2015-69186-C2-260 1-R to E.G., E.B., and J.J.C., respectively, and the Chilean FONDECYT project nos. 1120171 and 1160329 to A.F. A.V.K. was supported by the Russian Ministry of Science and Higher Education project #FSRZ-2020-0010. A.H., I.E.M., and K.B.S., were supported by The Research Council of Norway, project no. 176065/S30 and 190153/V10.
. - Article in press. - ISSN 1354-1013. - ISSN 1365-2486
РУБ Biodiversity Conservation + Ecology + Environmental Sciences
Кл.слова (ненормированные):
climate warming -- forest limit -- growth model -- mountain ecosystems -- tree -- rings
Аннотация: Climate warming is expected to positively alter upward and poleward treelines which are controlled by low temperature and a short growing season. Despite the importance of treelines as a bioassay of climate change, a global field assessment and posterior forecasting of tree growth at annual scales is lacking. Using annually resolved tree-ring data located across Eurasia and the Americas, we quantified and modeled the relationship between temperature and radial growth at treeline during the 20th century. We then tested whether this temperature-growth association will remain stable during the 21st century using a forward model under two climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). During the 20th century, growth enhancements were common in most sites, and temperature and growth showed positive trends. Interestingly, the relationship between temperature and growth trends was contingent on tree age suggesting biogeographic patterns in treeline growth are contingent on local factors besides climate warming. Simulations forecast temperature-growth decoupling during the 21st century. The growing season at treeline is projected to lengthen and growth rates would increase and become less dependent on temperature rise. These forecasts illustrate how growth may decouple from climate warming in cold regions and near the margins of tree existence. Such projected temperature-growth decoupling could impact ecosystem processes in mountain and polar biomes, with feedbacks on climate warming.
WOS
Держатели документа:
CSIC, Inst Pirena Ecol IPE, Zaragoza 50080, Spain.
Univ Pablo de Olavide, Dept Sistemas Fis Quim & Nat, Seville, Spain.
Ctr Invest Ecosistemas Patagonia CIEP, Coyhaique, Chile.
Nat Resources Canada, Pacific Forestry Ctr, Victoria, BC, Canada.
Univ Barcelona, Dept Biol Evolut Ecol & Ciencies Ambientals, Barcelona, Spain.
Ctr Ecol Res & Forestry Applicat CREAF, Bellaterra, Spain.
Univ Laval, Ctr Etud Nord CEN, Quebec City, PQ, Canada.
Univ Padua, Dip TeSAF, Legnaro, PD, Italy.
Univ Calif Riverside, Dept Bot & Plant Sci, Riverside, CA 92521 USA.
Nepal Acad Sci & Technol, Kathmandu, Nepal.
Chinese Acad Sci, CAS Key Lab Trop Forest Ecol, Xishuangbanna Trop Bot Garden, Kunming, Yunnan, Peoples R China.
Norwegian Inst Nat Res, Trondheim, Norway.
CNRS Cerege, Technopole Environm Arbois Mediterranee, Aix En Provence, France.
Siberian Fed Univ, Inst Ecol & Geog, Krasnoyarsk, Russia.
Krasnoyarsk Sci Ctr SB RAS, VN Sukachev Inst Forest SB RAS, Fed Res Ctr, Krasnoyarsk, Russia.
Univ Quebec Trois Rivieres, Ctr Etud Nord CEN, Trois Rivieres, PQ, Canada.
Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Tibetan Plateau Res, Lab Alpine Ecol, Beijing, Peoples R China.
Norwegian Biodivers Informat Ctr, Trondheim, Norway.
UrB RAS, Inst Plant & Anim Ecol, Ekaterinburg, Russia.
Univ Valladolid, EiFAB iuFOR, Soria, Spain.
Univ Bergen, Dept Biol Sci, Bergen, Norway.
Univ Turku, Dept Biol, Turku, Finland.
Moscow MV Lomonosov State Univ, Dept Geog, Moscow, Russia.
Ernst Moritz Arndt Univ Greifswald, Inst Bot & Landscape Ecol, DendroGreif, Greifswald, Germany.
Доп.точки доступа:
Camarero, Jesus Julio; Gazol, Antonio; Sanchez-Salguero, Raul; Fajardo, Alex; McIntire, Eliot J. B.; Gutierrez, Emilia; Batllori, Enric; Boudreau, Stephane; Carrer, Marco; Diez, Jeff; Dufour-Tremblay, Genevieve; Gaire, Narayan P.; Hofgaard, Annika; Jomelli, Vincent; Kirdyanov, Alexander, V; Levesque, Esther; Liang, Eryuan; Linares, I. E.; Mathisen, Ingrid E.; Moiseev, Pavel A.; Sanguesa-Barreda, Gabriel; Shrestha, Krishna B.; Toivonen, Johanna M.; Tutubalina, Olga, V; Wilmking, Martin; Camarero, J. Julio; Spanish projects [AMB95-0160, REN2002-04268-C02, CGL2015-69186-C2-260 1-R]; Chilean FONDECYTComision Nacional de Investigacion Cientifica y Tecnologica (CONICYT)CONICYT FONDECYT [1120171, 1160329]; Russian Ministry of Science and Higher Education [FSRZ-2020-0010]; Research Council of NorwayResearch Council of Norway [176065/S30, 190153/V10]
Кл.слова (ненормированные):
climate warming -- forest limit -- growth model -- mountain ecosystems -- tree -- rings
Аннотация: Climate warming is expected to positively alter upward and poleward treelines which are controlled by low temperature and a short growing season. Despite the importance of treelines as a bioassay of climate change, a global field assessment and posterior forecasting of tree growth at annual scales is lacking. Using annually resolved tree-ring data located across Eurasia and the Americas, we quantified and modeled the relationship between temperature and radial growth at treeline during the 20th century. We then tested whether this temperature-growth association will remain stable during the 21st century using a forward model under two climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). During the 20th century, growth enhancements were common in most sites, and temperature and growth showed positive trends. Interestingly, the relationship between temperature and growth trends was contingent on tree age suggesting biogeographic patterns in treeline growth are contingent on local factors besides climate warming. Simulations forecast temperature-growth decoupling during the 21st century. The growing season at treeline is projected to lengthen and growth rates would increase and become less dependent on temperature rise. These forecasts illustrate how growth may decouple from climate warming in cold regions and near the margins of tree existence. Such projected temperature-growth decoupling could impact ecosystem processes in mountain and polar biomes, with feedbacks on climate warming.
WOS
Держатели документа:
CSIC, Inst Pirena Ecol IPE, Zaragoza 50080, Spain.
Univ Pablo de Olavide, Dept Sistemas Fis Quim & Nat, Seville, Spain.
Ctr Invest Ecosistemas Patagonia CIEP, Coyhaique, Chile.
Nat Resources Canada, Pacific Forestry Ctr, Victoria, BC, Canada.
Univ Barcelona, Dept Biol Evolut Ecol & Ciencies Ambientals, Barcelona, Spain.
Ctr Ecol Res & Forestry Applicat CREAF, Bellaterra, Spain.
Univ Laval, Ctr Etud Nord CEN, Quebec City, PQ, Canada.
Univ Padua, Dip TeSAF, Legnaro, PD, Italy.
Univ Calif Riverside, Dept Bot & Plant Sci, Riverside, CA 92521 USA.
Nepal Acad Sci & Technol, Kathmandu, Nepal.
Chinese Acad Sci, CAS Key Lab Trop Forest Ecol, Xishuangbanna Trop Bot Garden, Kunming, Yunnan, Peoples R China.
Norwegian Inst Nat Res, Trondheim, Norway.
CNRS Cerege, Technopole Environm Arbois Mediterranee, Aix En Provence, France.
Siberian Fed Univ, Inst Ecol & Geog, Krasnoyarsk, Russia.
Krasnoyarsk Sci Ctr SB RAS, VN Sukachev Inst Forest SB RAS, Fed Res Ctr, Krasnoyarsk, Russia.
Univ Quebec Trois Rivieres, Ctr Etud Nord CEN, Trois Rivieres, PQ, Canada.
Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Tibetan Plateau Res, Lab Alpine Ecol, Beijing, Peoples R China.
Norwegian Biodivers Informat Ctr, Trondheim, Norway.
UrB RAS, Inst Plant & Anim Ecol, Ekaterinburg, Russia.
Univ Valladolid, EiFAB iuFOR, Soria, Spain.
Univ Bergen, Dept Biol Sci, Bergen, Norway.
Univ Turku, Dept Biol, Turku, Finland.
Moscow MV Lomonosov State Univ, Dept Geog, Moscow, Russia.
Ernst Moritz Arndt Univ Greifswald, Inst Bot & Landscape Ecol, DendroGreif, Greifswald, Germany.
Доп.точки доступа:
Camarero, Jesus Julio; Gazol, Antonio; Sanchez-Salguero, Raul; Fajardo, Alex; McIntire, Eliot J. B.; Gutierrez, Emilia; Batllori, Enric; Boudreau, Stephane; Carrer, Marco; Diez, Jeff; Dufour-Tremblay, Genevieve; Gaire, Narayan P.; Hofgaard, Annika; Jomelli, Vincent; Kirdyanov, Alexander, V; Levesque, Esther; Liang, Eryuan; Linares, I. E.; Mathisen, Ingrid E.; Moiseev, Pavel A.; Sanguesa-Barreda, Gabriel; Shrestha, Krishna B.; Toivonen, Johanna M.; Tutubalina, Olga, V; Wilmking, Martin; Camarero, J. Julio; Spanish projects [AMB95-0160, REN2002-04268-C02, CGL2015-69186-C2-260 1-R]; Chilean FONDECYTComision Nacional de Investigacion Cientifica y Tecnologica (CONICYT)CONICYT FONDECYT [1120171, 1160329]; Russian Ministry of Science and Higher Education [FSRZ-2020-0010]; Research Council of NorwayResearch Council of Norway [176065/S30, 190153/V10]
Prospects of Using Tree-Ring Earlywood and Latewood Width for Reconstruction of Crops Yield on Example of South Siberia
/ E. A. Babushkina, D. F. Zhirnova, L. V. Belokopytova [et al.] // Forests. - 2021. - Vol. 12, Is. 2. - Ст. 174, DOI 10.3390/f12020174. - Cited References:90. - This research was funded by the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation, scientific topic code FSRZ-2020-0010, and the Russian Foundation for Basic Research, grant number 20-016-00049.
. - ISSN 1999-4907
РУБ Forestry
Кл.слова (ненормированные):
Siberian larch -- tree-ring chronologies -- earlywood width -- latewood width -- small grain crops -- semiarid conditions -- crops failures -- reconstruction -- model
Аннотация: Improvement of dendrochronological crops yield reconstruction by separate application of earlywood and latewood width chronologies succeeded in rain-fed semiarid region. (1) Background: Tree-ring width chronologies have been successfully applied for crops yield reconstruction models. We propose application of separated earlywood and latewood width chronologies as possible predictors improving the fitness of reconstruction models. (2) Methods: The generalized yield series of main crops (spring wheat, spring barley, oats) were investigated in rain-fed and irrigated areas in semiarid steppes of South Siberia. Chronologies of earlywood, latewood, and total ring width of Siberian larch (Larix sibirica Ledeb.) growing in forest-steppe in the middle of the study area were tested as predictors of yield reconstruction models. (3) Results: In the rain-fed territory, separation of earlywood and latewood allowed increasing variation of yield explained by reconstruction model from 17.4 to 20.5%, whereas total climatic-driven component of variation was 41.5%. However, both tree-ring based models explained only 7.7% of yield variation in the irrigated territory (climate inclusion increased it to 34.8%). Low temperature sensitivity of larch growth was the main limitation of the model. A 240-year (1780-2019) history of crop failures and yield variation dynamics were estimated from the actual data and the best reconstruction model. (4) Conclusions: Presently in the study region, breeding of the environment-resistant crops varieties compensates the increase of temperature in the yield dynamics, preventing severe harvest losses. Tree-ring based reconstructions may help to understand and forecast response of the crops to the climatic variability, and also the probability of crop failures, particularly in the rain-fed territories.
WOS
Держатели документа:
Siberian Fed Univ, Khakass Tech Inst, Abakan 655017, Russia.
Birbal Sahni Inst Palaeosci, Lucknow 226007, Uttar Pradesh, India.
Krasnoyarsk State Agr Univ, Dept Crop Prod Breeding & Seed Dev, Krasnoyarsk 660049, Russia.
Siberian Fed Univ, Rectorate, Krasnoyarsk 660036, Russia.
Russian Acad Sci, Sukachev Inst Forest, Siberian Branch, Krasnoyarsk 660036, Russia.
Доп.точки доступа:
Babushkina, Elena A.; Zhirnova, Dina F.; Belokopytova, Liliana, V; Mehrotra, Nivedita; Shah, Santosh K.; Keler, Viktoria V.; Vaganov, Eugene A.; Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation [FSRZ-2020-0010]; Russian Foundation for Basic ResearchRussian Foundation for Basic Research (RFBR) [20-016-00049]
Кл.слова (ненормированные):
Siberian larch -- tree-ring chronologies -- earlywood width -- latewood width -- small grain crops -- semiarid conditions -- crops failures -- reconstruction -- model
Аннотация: Improvement of dendrochronological crops yield reconstruction by separate application of earlywood and latewood width chronologies succeeded in rain-fed semiarid region. (1) Background: Tree-ring width chronologies have been successfully applied for crops yield reconstruction models. We propose application of separated earlywood and latewood width chronologies as possible predictors improving the fitness of reconstruction models. (2) Methods: The generalized yield series of main crops (spring wheat, spring barley, oats) were investigated in rain-fed and irrigated areas in semiarid steppes of South Siberia. Chronologies of earlywood, latewood, and total ring width of Siberian larch (Larix sibirica Ledeb.) growing in forest-steppe in the middle of the study area were tested as predictors of yield reconstruction models. (3) Results: In the rain-fed territory, separation of earlywood and latewood allowed increasing variation of yield explained by reconstruction model from 17.4 to 20.5%, whereas total climatic-driven component of variation was 41.5%. However, both tree-ring based models explained only 7.7% of yield variation in the irrigated territory (climate inclusion increased it to 34.8%). Low temperature sensitivity of larch growth was the main limitation of the model. A 240-year (1780-2019) history of crop failures and yield variation dynamics were estimated from the actual data and the best reconstruction model. (4) Conclusions: Presently in the study region, breeding of the environment-resistant crops varieties compensates the increase of temperature in the yield dynamics, preventing severe harvest losses. Tree-ring based reconstructions may help to understand and forecast response of the crops to the climatic variability, and also the probability of crop failures, particularly in the rain-fed territories.
WOS
Держатели документа:
Siberian Fed Univ, Khakass Tech Inst, Abakan 655017, Russia.
Birbal Sahni Inst Palaeosci, Lucknow 226007, Uttar Pradesh, India.
Krasnoyarsk State Agr Univ, Dept Crop Prod Breeding & Seed Dev, Krasnoyarsk 660049, Russia.
Siberian Fed Univ, Rectorate, Krasnoyarsk 660036, Russia.
Russian Acad Sci, Sukachev Inst Forest, Siberian Branch, Krasnoyarsk 660036, Russia.
Доп.точки доступа:
Babushkina, Elena A.; Zhirnova, Dina F.; Belokopytova, Liliana, V; Mehrotra, Nivedita; Shah, Santosh K.; Keler, Viktoria V.; Vaganov, Eugene A.; Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation [FSRZ-2020-0010]; Russian Foundation for Basic ResearchRussian Foundation for Basic Research (RFBR) [20-016-00049]
Orographic Factors as a Predictor of the Spread of the Siberian Silk Moth Outbreak in the Mountainous Southern Taiga Forests of Siberia
/ S. M. Sultson, A. A. Goroshko, S. V. Verkhovets [et al.] // Land. - 2021. - Vol. 10, Is. 2. - Ст. 115, DOI 10.3390/land10020115. - Cited References:40. - We would like to thank the Krasnoyarsk center for the collective use of the Federal research center of the Siberian branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences for the equipment provided. The authors acknowledge the editor and the anonymous reviewers for their comments that helped us to improve the manuscript.
. - ISSN 2073-445X
РУБ Environmental Studies
Кл.слова (ненормированные):
forest pathology -- monitoring -- digital elevation model -- Dendrolimus -- sibiricus -- forest damage -- spatiotemporal dynamics -- Siberian stone pine -- (Pinus sibirica Du Tour) -- Siberian fir (Abies sibirica L.) -- forest type
Аннотация: This research is dedicated to solving an urgent problem associated with the large-scale destruction of taiga forests by Siberian silk moth (Dendrolimus sibiricus) outbreaks. The dynamics of the damage to dark coniferous forest stands induced by the Siberian silk moth outbreaks in mid-altitude mountains were studied. A hypothesis was formulated based on the fundamental influence of the orography on the phytophage's dispersal within the landscape, along with the climate, which acts as a secondary predictor-a catalyst for outbreaks. The study was carried out using Landsat-8 satellite imagery time-series (from 2018 to 2020). The data were verified using a field forest pathological survey of the territory. An assessment of the defoliated forest area and damage association with the landscape was carried out using an Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) digital elevation model. The assessment was aimed to detail the forecast parameters for an outbreak development in mid-altitude mountains using the orographic features-altitude, terrain slope, and slope aspect. Early warnings of phytophagous insect outbreaks in mountain southern taiga should be focused on the permanent monitoring of dark coniferous stands of the mossy group of forest types, covering altitude levels from 400 to 600 m, located on gentle terrains and slopes of up to 15 degrees. The greatest vulnerability to phytophage impacts was characterized as areas located at altitudes from 400 to 600 m. The upper limit of D. sibiricus distribution was 900 m above sea level. The results obtained provide comprehensive information on the Siberian silk moth potential reserves within the study area with the possibility of extrapolation to similar territories. The data will make it possible to model pest outbreaks based on orography and improve the forest pathological monitoring methods at the regional level.
WOS
Держатели документа:
Reshetnev Siberian State Univ Sci & Technol, Sci Lab Forest Hlth, 31 Krasnoyarskii Rabochii Prospekt, Krasnoyarsk 660037, Russia.
Russian Acad Sci, Sukachev Inst Forest, Siberian Branch, 50,Bil 28, Krasnoyarsk 660036, Russia.
Доп.точки доступа:
Sultson, Svetlana M.; Goroshko, Andrey A.; Verkhovets, Sergey V.; Mikhaylov, Pavel V.; Ivanov, Valery A.; Demidko, Denis A.; Kulakov, Sergey S.; Krasnoyarsk center for the collective use of the Federal research center of the Siberian branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Кл.слова (ненормированные):
forest pathology -- monitoring -- digital elevation model -- Dendrolimus -- sibiricus -- forest damage -- spatiotemporal dynamics -- Siberian stone pine -- (Pinus sibirica Du Tour) -- Siberian fir (Abies sibirica L.) -- forest type
Аннотация: This research is dedicated to solving an urgent problem associated with the large-scale destruction of taiga forests by Siberian silk moth (Dendrolimus sibiricus) outbreaks. The dynamics of the damage to dark coniferous forest stands induced by the Siberian silk moth outbreaks in mid-altitude mountains were studied. A hypothesis was formulated based on the fundamental influence of the orography on the phytophage's dispersal within the landscape, along with the climate, which acts as a secondary predictor-a catalyst for outbreaks. The study was carried out using Landsat-8 satellite imagery time-series (from 2018 to 2020). The data were verified using a field forest pathological survey of the territory. An assessment of the defoliated forest area and damage association with the landscape was carried out using an Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) digital elevation model. The assessment was aimed to detail the forecast parameters for an outbreak development in mid-altitude mountains using the orographic features-altitude, terrain slope, and slope aspect. Early warnings of phytophagous insect outbreaks in mountain southern taiga should be focused on the permanent monitoring of dark coniferous stands of the mossy group of forest types, covering altitude levels from 400 to 600 m, located on gentle terrains and slopes of up to 15 degrees. The greatest vulnerability to phytophage impacts was characterized as areas located at altitudes from 400 to 600 m. The upper limit of D. sibiricus distribution was 900 m above sea level. The results obtained provide comprehensive information on the Siberian silk moth potential reserves within the study area with the possibility of extrapolation to similar territories. The data will make it possible to model pest outbreaks based on orography and improve the forest pathological monitoring methods at the regional level.
WOS
Держатели документа:
Reshetnev Siberian State Univ Sci & Technol, Sci Lab Forest Hlth, 31 Krasnoyarskii Rabochii Prospekt, Krasnoyarsk 660037, Russia.
Russian Acad Sci, Sukachev Inst Forest, Siberian Branch, 50,Bil 28, Krasnoyarsk 660036, Russia.
Доп.точки доступа:
Sultson, Svetlana M.; Goroshko, Andrey A.; Verkhovets, Sergey V.; Mikhaylov, Pavel V.; Ivanov, Valery A.; Demidko, Denis A.; Kulakov, Sergey S.; Krasnoyarsk center for the collective use of the Federal research center of the Siberian branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences