Труды сотрудников ИЛ им. В.Н. Сукачева СО РАН

[Text] / G. E. Rehfeldt [et al.] // Glob. Change Biol. - 2002. - Vol. 8, Is. 9. - P912-929, DOI 10.1046/j.1365-2486.2002.00516.x. - Cited References: 49 . - 18. - ISSN 1354-1013РУБ Biodiversity Conservation + Ecology + Environmental Sciences

Аннотация: Five population-specific response functions were developed from quadratic models for 110 populations of Pinus sylvestris growing at 47 planting sites in Eurasia and North America. The functions predict 13 year height from climate: degree-days > 5 degreesC; mean annual temperature; degree-days < 0 degreesC; summer-winter temperature differential; and a moisture index, the ratio of degree-days > 5 degreesC to mean annual precipitation. Validation of the response functions with two sets of independent data produced for all functions statistically significant simple correlations with coefficients as high as 0.81 between actual and predicted heights. The response functions described the widely different growth potentials typical of natural populations and demonstrated that these growth potentials have different climatic optima. Populations nonetheless tend to inhabit climates colder than their optima, with the disparity between the optimal and inhabited climates becoming greater as the climate becomes more severe. When driven by a global warming scenario of the Hadley Center, the functions described short-term physiologic and long-term evolutionary effects that were geographically complex. The short-term effects should be negative in the warmest climates but strongly positive in the coldest. Long-term effects eventually should ameliorate the negative short-term impacts, enhance the positive, and in time, substantially increase productivity throughout most of the contemporary pine forests of Eurasia. Realizing the long-term gains will require redistribution of genotypes across the landscape, a process that should take up to 13 generations and therefore many years.

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Держатели документа:
USDA, Forest Serv, Rocky Mt Res Stn, Moscow, ID 83843 USA
Russian Acad Sci, Sikachev Inst Forest, Siberian Branch, Krasnoyarsk 660036, Russia

Доп.точки доступа:
Rehfeldt, G.E.; Tchebakova, N.M.; Parfenova, Y.I.; Wykoff, W.R.; Kuzmina, N.A.; Milyutin, L.I.

[Text] / R. A. MONSERUD, N. M. TCHEBAKOVA, R. . LEEMANS // Clim. Change. - 1993. - Vol. 25, Is. 1. - P59-83, DOI 10.1007/BF01094084. - Cited References: 73 . - 25. - ISSN 0165-0009РУБ Environmental Sciences + Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Аннотация: A modified Budyko global vegetation model is used to predict changes in global vegetation patterns resulting from climate change (CO2 doubling). Vegetation patterns are predicted using a model based on a dryness index and potential evaporation determined by solving radiation balance equations. Climate change scenarios are derived from predictions from four General Circulation Models (GCM's) of the atmosphere (GFDL, GISS, OSU, and UKMO). Global vegetation maps after climate change are compared to the current climate vegetation map using the kappa statistic for judging agreement, as well as by calculating area statistics. All four GCM scenarios show similar trends in vegetation shifts and in areas that remain stable, although the UKMO scenario predicts greater warming than the others. Climate change maps produced by all four GCM scenarios show good agreement with the current climate vegetation map for the globe as a whole, although over half of the vegetation classes show only poor to fair agreement. The most stable areas are Desert and Ice/Polar Desert. Because most of the predicted warming is concentrated in the Boreal and Temperate zones, vegetation there is predicted to undergo the greatest change. Specifically, all Boreal vegetation classes are predicted to shrink. The interrelated classes of Tundra, Taiga, and Temperate Forest are predicted to replace much of their poleward mostly northern) neighbors. Most vegetation classes in the Subtropics and Tropics are predicted to expand. Any shift in the Tropics favoring either Forest over Savanna, or vice versa, will be determined by the magnitude of the increased precipitation accompanying global warming. Although the model predicts equilibrium conditions to which many plant species cannot adjust (through migration or microevolution) in the 50-100 y needed for CO2 doubling, it is nevertheless not clear if projected global warming will result in drastic or benign vegetation change.

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Держатели документа:
RUSSIAN ACAD SCI,INST FOREST,KRASNOYARSK 660036,RUSSIA
NATL INST PUBL HLTH & ENVIRONM PROTECT,DEPT GLOBAL CHANGE,3720 BA BILTHOVEN,NETHERLANDS

Доп.точки доступа:
MONSERUD, R.A.; TCHEBAKOVA, N.M.; LEEMANS, R...