Труды сотрудников ИЛ им. В.Н. Сукачева СО РАН

/ G.E. Rehfeldt, N.M. Tchebakova, L.I. Milyutin и др // Eurasian Journal of Forest Research. - 2003. - Vol. 6, № 2. - С. 83-98

Держатели документа:
Институт леса им. В.Н. Сукачева Сибирского отделения Российской академии наук : 660036, Красноярск, Академгородок 50/28

Доп.точки доступа:
Rehfeldt, G.E.; Рефелдт Г.Е.; Tchebakova, Nadezhda Mikhailovna; Чебакова, Надежда Михайловна; Milyutin, Leonid Iosifovich; Милютин, Леонид Иосифович; Parfyenova, Elena Ivanovna; Wykoff, W.R.; Викофф В.Р.; Kuz'mina, Nina Aleksyeyevna

: материалы временных коллективов / L. S. Shugalei // Tree species effects on soils: implications for global change. - 2005. - С. 257-268. - Библиогр. в конце ст.
Аннотация: The data obtained from this experimental plantation may be used for building mathematical models to predict soil response to changes in both climate and species composition.These changes would complicate the evaluation of the impact of individual tree species on soil properties, and novel techniques need to be developed.

Держатели документа:
Институт леса им. В.Н. Сукачева Сибирского отделения Российской академии наук : 660036, Красноярск, Академгородок 50/28

Доп.точки доступа:
Шугалей, Людмила Степановна
Имеются экземпляры в отделах:
РСФ (14.03.2007г. (1 экз.) - Б.ц.) - свободны 1

: материалы временных коллективов / V. I. Kharuk // Water, air & soil pollution. - 1995. - Vol. 82, № 1-2. - С. 483-497. - Библиогр. в конце ст.
Аннотация: Our findings have shown that the spectral characteristics of aspen bark differ considerably from the "grey body" representations typically utilised in radiative transfer models. Also, since the bark and leaf canopy fractions have different C assimilation capacities, the partitioning of canopy Chl into leaf and bark strata should improve C assimilation estimates. Remote sensing technology must be relied upon, especially in vast and largely in accessible regions such as the boreal biome, for landscape- and regional-scale studies of C budgets. In these studies, estimates of forest productivity and C exchange currently rely on spectral indices obtained from remote satellite/aircraft sensors; these spectral ratios are used to indirectly estimate C assimilation through correlation with chlorophyll and photosynthetic capacity.

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Институт леса им. В.Н. Сукачева Сибирского отделения Российской академии наук : 660036 Красноярск, Академгородок 50/28

Доп.точки доступа:
Kharuk, Vyacheslav Ivanovich; Харук Вячеслав Иванович
Имеются экземпляры в отделах:
Арх (04.05.2007г. (1 экз.) - Б.ц.) - свободны 1

: материалы временных коллективов / V. I. Kharuk, K. Ranson, M. Dvinskaya // Eurasian Journal of Forest Research. - 2007. - Vol. 10-2. - С. 163-171. - Библиогр. в конце ст.
Аннотация: Models of climate warming predict the migration of "warm-adapted' species to habitates of "cold-adapted" species. Here we show evidence of expansion of "dark-needle" conifers (DNC: Siberian pine, spruce and fir) into the habitat of larch, the leader in adaptation to harsh climatic conditions in Asia. The studies were made along two transects oriented from the western and southern borders of a larch dominated forest to its center. The invasion of DNC into the historical larch habitat was quantified as an increase of the proportion of those species both in the overstory and in regeneration. The age structure of regeneration showed that regeneration occurred mainly during the last 2-3 decades. In particular warm winter temperatures promote the survival regenerated Siberian pine. The results obtained indicate the climate-driven migration of Siberian pine, spruce and fir into traditional zone of larch dominance. Substitution of a deciduous conifer (larch) by evergreen conifers decreases the albedo and may provide positive feedback for temperature increases.

Держатели документа:
Институт леса им. В.Н. Сукачева Сибирского отделения Российской академии наук : 660036, Красноярск, Академгородок, 50, стр., 28

Доп.точки доступа:
Ranson, K.J.; Рэнсон К.Дж.; Dvinskaya, Mariya Leonidovna; Двинская, Мария Леонидовна; Харук, Вячеслав Иванович
Имеются экземпляры в отделах:
ЧЗ (05.03.2008г. (1 экз.) - Б.ц.) - свободны 1

: материалы временных коллективов / Robert A. Monserud [и др.] // Canadian Journal of Forest Research. - 2008. - Vol. 38, № 2. - С. 343-352. - Библиогр. в конце ст.
Аннотация: We estimated the impact of global climate change on lodgepole pine site productivity in Alberta based on the Alberts Climate Model and the A2 SRES climate change scenario projections from three global circulation models (CGCM2, HADCM3, and ECHAM4). Cosiderable warming ia apparent in all three models. On average, the increases in mean GDD5 (growing degree-day 5 degrees C) are 18%, 38%, and 65% by the 2020s, 2050s, respectively. Change in precipitation is essentially nil. This results in proportioanal increases in dryness index. We used the dryness index to predict the potential future range and GDD5 to predict its potential productivity.

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Держатели документа:
Институт леса им. В.Н. Сукачева Сибирского отделения Российской академии наук : 660036, Красноярск, Академгородок, 50, стр., 28

Доп.точки доступа:
Monserud, R.A.; Монсеруд Р.А.; Yang, Yugine; Янг И. Юджин; Huang, Shongming; Хуанг С.С.; Tchebakova, Nadezhda Mikhailovna; Чебакова, Надежда Михайловна

: материалы временных коллективов / A. A. Onuchin, T. A. Burenina // Environmental change in Siberia: earth observation, field studies and modelling. - Dordrecht et. al. : Springer, 2010. - С. 193-210. - Библиогр. в конце ст.
Аннотация: Climatic and geographic patterns of the spatial precipitation distribution in Central Siberia are studied on a regional level. Computer models of spatiall precipitation distribution were developed for the Yenisei Mountain Chain, Eastern Sayan, and the South-eastern Trans-Baikal region. Owing to irregular spatial distribution of precipitaion three groups of landscapes were defined: (1) slopes of west, north-west aspect with orographic precipitation; (2) shadow slopes in mountain regions; (3) plain landscapes. Obtained equautions show correlations between the amount of precipitation and altitude, geographical latitude, distance from barrier ridge and other parameters.

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Институт леса им. В.Н. Сукачева Сибирского отделения Российской академии наук : 660036, Красноярск, Академгородок, 50/28

Доп.точки доступа:
Burenina, Tamara Anisimovna; Буренина, Тамара Анисимовна; Онучин, Александр Александрович

: материалы временных коллективов / F. Kraxner, S. Leduc, A. Z. Shvidenko // Boreal forests in a changing world: challenges and needs for action: Proceedings of the International conference August 15-21 2011, Krasnoyarsk, Russia. - Krasnoyarsk : V.N. Sukachev Institute of forest SB RAS, 2011. - С. 34-39. - Библиогр. в конце ст.
Аннотация: This study analyses the Russian forest biomass -based bioenergy sector. It is shown that presently - although given abundant resources - the share of heat and electricity from biomass is very minor. With the help of 2 IIASA models, future green-field bioenergy plants are identified in a geographically explicit way. Resulkts indicate that by using only 3.3% of the total wood removals, twice as much heat and electricity that presently available from biomass could be generated. Furthermore, there is a multitude of co-benefits quantified for the socio-economic sector such as green jobs linked to bioenergy.

Держатели документа:
Институт леса им. В.Н. Сукачева Сибирского отделения Российской академии наук : 660036, Красноярск, Академгородок 50/28

Доп.точки доступа:
Kraxner, F.; Кракснер Ф.; Leduc, S.; Ледук С.; Shvidenko, Anatoly Zinov'yevich; Швиденко, Анатолий Зиновьевич

: материалы временных коллективов / D. J. McRae [и др.] // Boreal forests in a changing world: challenges and needs for action: Proceedings of the International conference August 15-21 2011, Krasnoyarsk, Russia. - Krasnoyarsk : V.N. Sukachev Institute of forest SB RAS, 2011. - С. 156-159. - Библиогр. в конце ст.
Аннотация: An emperical fire study, using 2 to 4-ha experimental burn plots, was conducted in Central Siberia to obtain data to develop fire behaviour models for Scots pine forests. Fuel consumptiuon (depth of burn and fuel consumption) was predicted using the Russian Moisture Index (PV-1) or the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System. However, only the FWI System could be used to model fire behaviour characteristics (rate of spread and fireline intensity), as wind speed is an important input factor in its calculatiion and is not accounted for in the PV-1.

Держатели документа:
Институт леса им. В.Н. Сукачева Сибирского отделения Российской академии наук : 660036, Красноярск, Академгородок 50/28

Доп.точки доступа:
McRae, D.J.; Макрае Д.Дж.; Ivanova, Galina Alexandrovna; Иванова, Галина Александровна; Ivanova, V.A.; Иванова В.А.; Sukhinin, A.I.; Сухинин, Анатолий Иванович; Kukavskaya, Elena Alexandrovna; Кукавская, Елена Александровна; Krasnoshchekova, Yevgeniya Nikolayevna; Краснощекова, Евгения Николаевна

: материалы временных коллективов / V. Gr. Soukhovolsky // Boreal forests in a changing world: challenges and needs for action: Proceedings of the International conference August 15-21 2011, Krasnoyarsk, Russia. - Krasnoyarsk : V.N. Sukachev Institute of forest SB RAS, 2011. - С. 187. - Библиогр. в конце ст.
Аннотация: In this work approaches to modeling of such critical phenomena in a "forest-insect" system as insect outbreaks and following tree damage are suggested. It is suggested that critical phenomena in the system are modeled as a second order phase transition.

Держатели документа:
Институт леса им. В.Н. Сукачева Сибирского отделения Российской академии наук : 660036, Красноярск, Академгородок 50/28

Доп.точки доступа:
Суховольский, Владислав Григорьевич

: материалы временных коллективов / O. V. Tarasova, V. Gr. Soukhovolsky // Boreal forests in a changing world: challenges and needs for action: Proceedings of the International conference August 15-21 2011, Krasnoyarsk, Russia. - Krasnoyarsk : V.N. Sukachev Institute of forest SB RAS, 2011. - С. 189-190. - Библиогр. в конце ст.
Аннотация: In connection with trade growth, movement of people, vehicles (car, marine, and river ships, trains, airplanes, etc.) and cargo across the planet risk of forest insects transferal increased.

Держатели документа:
Институт леса им. В.Н. Сукачева Сибирского отделения Российской академии наук : 660036, Красноярск, Академгородок 50/28

Доп.точки доступа:
Soukhovolsky, Vladislav Grigor'yevich; Суховольский, Владислав Григорьевич; Тарасова, Ольга Викторовна

: материалы временных коллективов / Y. Ivanova, N. F. Ovchinnikova // Boreal forests in a changing world: challenges and needs for action: Proceedings of the International conference August 15-21 2011, Krasnoyarsk, Russia. - Krasnoyarsk : V.N. Sukachev Institute of forest SB RAS, 2011. - С. 319-322. - Библиогр. в конце ст.
Аннотация: The models for evaluating NPP using ground-truth measurements and satelite data yielded different NPP values for forest ecosystems of the dark coniferous forest (chem) zone and the mountain-taiga zone situated at the West Sayan Mountains. The overestimation of NPP in mixed forest ecosystems should be taken into consideretion in the further work on the model.

Держатели документа:
Институт леса им. В.Н. Сукачева Сибирского отделения Российской академии наук : 660036, Красноярск, Академгородок 50/28

Доп.точки доступа:
Ovchinnikova, Natal'ya Feliksovna; Овчинникова, Наталья Феликсовна; Иванова И.

: материалы временных коллективов / M. V. Skomarkova // Workshop on climate change, the tree growth response, and reconstruction of climate 25-29 January 2006, V.N. Sukachev Institute of Forest SB RAS, Krasnoyarsk, Russia. - Krasnoyarsk : V.N. Sukachev Institute of Forest SB RAS, 2006. - С. 30-31
Аннотация: The relationship between seasonal changes in tree-ring structure and carbon isotope composition can be used to study carbon storage and re-allocation, which is important for improving models of tree-ring growth and carbon isotope fractionation.

Держатели документа:
Институт леса им. В.Н. Сукачева Сибирского отделения Российской академии наук : 660036, Красноярск, Академгородок 50/28

Доп.точки доступа:
Скомаркова, Марина Викторовна

/ E. A. Kukavskaya [et al.] // Can. J. For. Res.-Rev. Can. Rech. For. - 2013. - Vol. 43, Is. 5. - P493-506, DOI 10.1139/cjfr-2012-0367. - Cited References: 65. - The authors gratefully acknowledge financial support from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Land Cover Land Use Change (LCLUC), Terrestrial Ecology (TE), and Inter-DiSciplinary (IDS) projects, all of which fall under the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI) domain; the Institute of International Education, Fulbright Scholar Program; the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (Grant No. 12-04-31258; FGP "Scientific and scientific-pedagogical staff of innovative Russia"; and the Russian Academy of Sciences. . - 14. - ISSN 0045-5067РУБ Forestry

Аннотация: Boreal forests constitute the world's largest terrestrial carbon pools. The main natural disturbance in these forests is wildfire, which modifies the carbon budget and atmosphere, directly and indirectly. Wildfire emissions in Russia contribute substantially to the global carbon cycle and have potentially important feedbacks to changing climate. Published estimates of carbon emissions from fires in Russian boreal forests vary greatly depending on the methods and data sets used. We examined various fire and vegetation products used to estimate wildfire emissions for Siberia. Large (up to fivefold) differences in annual and monthly area burned estimates for Siberia were found among four satellite-based fire data sets. Official Russian data were typically less than 10% of satellite estimates. Differences in the estimated proportion of annual burned area within each ecosystem were as much as 40% among five land-cover products. As a result, fuel consumption estimates would be expected to vary widely (3%-98%) depending on the specific vegetation mapping product used and as a function of weather conditions. Verification and validation of burned area and land-cover data sets along with the development of fuel maps and combustion models are essential for accurate Siberian wildfire emission estimates, which are central to balancing the carbon budget and assessing feedbacks to climate change.

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Держатели документа:
[Kukavskaya, Elena A.
Ponomarev, Evgeni I.
Ivanova, Galina A.] VN Sukachev Inst Forest SB RAS, Krasnoyarsk 660036, Russia
[Soja, Amber J.] Natl Inst Aerosp, Hampton, VA 23666 USA
[Soja, Amber J.] NASA, Langley Res Ctr, Hampton, VA 23681 USA
[Petkov, Alexander P.
Conard, Susan G.] US Forest Serv, USDA, Rocky Mt Res Stn, Missoula, MT 59808 USA
[Conard, Susan G.] George Mason Univ, Fairfax, VA 22030 USA

Доп.точки доступа:
Kukavskaya, E.A.; Кукавская, Елена Александровна; Soja, A.J.; Petkov, A.P.; Ponomarev, E.I.; Пономарев, Евгений Иванович; Ivanova, G.A.; Иванова, Галина Александровна; Conard, S.G.

/ T. M. Ovchinnikova [et al.] // Contemp. Probl. Ecol. - 2013. - Vol. 6, Is. 2. - P170-176, DOI 10.1134/S1995425513020133. - Cited References: 8. - This work was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (grant no. 10-04-00256). . - 7. - ISSN 1995-4255РУБ Ecology

Аннотация: Based on the concept of competition for resources, the distribution of trees upon reforestation in windfall areas is studied. As a theoretical model for competition, a Zipf-Pareto model of ranking the distribution of resources is used. Analysis shows that the processes resulting from competitive interactions between the trees of different species proceed slowly in a windfall area where coniferous species get replaced by deciduous ones. In the territory where deciduous species initially dominated, competitive interactions between trees of different species turn out to be formed almost immediately upon natural reforestation after the windfall. By the time the ratio of species stabilizes and becomes a steady state, the ranks of individual species also stabilize. This result is obtained on the basis of a quantitative assessment of the change in leadership between competing species in time using Spearman's rank correlation coefficient.

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Держатели документа:
[Ovchinnikova, T. M.
Sotnichenko, D. L.
Sukhovolskiy, V. G.] Russian Acad Sci, Siberian Branch, Sukachev Inst Forest, Krasnoyarsk 660036, Russia
[Mochalov, S. A.] Ural State Forestry Engn Univ, Ekaterinburg 620100, Russia

Доп.точки доступа:
Ovchinnikova, T.M.; Sotnichenko, D.L.; Mochalov, S.A.; Sukhovolskiy, V.G.

/ A. J. Dolman [et al.] // Biogeosciences. - 2012. - Vol. 9, Is. 12. - P5323-5340, DOI 10.5194/bg-9-5323-2012. - Cited References: 90. - The authors would like to acknowledge the inspiration of the Global Carbon Project's RECCAP team that laid the basis for the present work. A. J. D. and T. C. acknowledge partial support from the EU FP7 Coordination Action on Carbon Observing System (COCOS, grant agreement no. 212196 and the Operational Global Carbon Observing System (GEOCARBON, grant agreement no: 283080). A. S. and D. S. acknowledge support from European Union Grants FP7-212535 (Project CC-TAME), FP7-244122 (GHG-Europe), FP7-283080 (GEO-Carbon) and by the Global Environmental Forum, Japan (Project GEF-2).E.-D. S., N. T. and A. J. D. acknowledge support from the Russian "Megagrant" 11.G34.31.0014 from 30 November 2010 to E.-D. Schulze by the Russian Federation and the Siberian Federal University to support research projects by leading scientists at Russian Institutions of higher education. . - 18. - ISSN 1726-4170РУБ Ecology + Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Аннотация: We determine the net land to atmosphere flux of carbon in Russia, including Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan, using inventory-based, eddy covariance, and inversion methods. Our high boundary estimate is -342 TgC yr(-1) from the eddy covariance method, and this is close to the upper bounds of the inventory-based Land Ecosystem Assessment and inverse models estimates. A lower boundary estimate is provided at -1350 TgC yr(-1) from the inversion models. The average of the three methods is -613.5 TgC yr(-1). The methane emission is estimated separately at 41.4 Tg C yr(-1). These three methods agree well within their respective error bounds. There is thus good consistency between bottom-up and top-down methods. The forests of Russia primarily cause the net atmosphere to land flux (-692 TgC yr(-1) from the LEA. It remains however remarkable that the three methods provide such close estimates (-615, -662, -554 TgC yr(-1)) for net biome production (NBP), given the inherent uncertainties in all of the approaches. The lack of recent forest inventories, the few eddy covariance sites and associated uncertainty with upscaling and undersampling of concentrations for the inversions are among the prime causes of the uncertainty. The dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) suggest a much lower uptake at -91 TgC yr(-1), and we argue that this is caused by a high estimate of heterotrophic respiration compared to other methods.

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Держатели документа:
[Dolman, A. J.
Chen, T.
van der Molen, M. K.
Marchesini, L. Belelli] Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Dept Earth Sci, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands
[Shvidenko, A.
Schepaschenko, D.] Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
[Ciais, P.] CEA CNRS UVSQ, IPSL LSCE, Ctr Etud Orme Merisiers, F-91191 Gif Sur Yvette, France
[Tchebakova, N.] SB RAS, VN Sukachev Inst Forest, Krasnoyarsk 660036, Russia
[Tchebakova, N.] SIF SB RAS, Krasnoyarsk, Russia
[Tchebakova, N.] Siberian Fed Univ, Krasnoyarsk, Russia
[van der Molen, M. K.] Wageningen Univ, Dept Meteorol & Air Qual, Wageningen, Netherlands
[Maximov, T. C.] RAS, Inst Biol Problems Cryolithozone, Siberian Branch, Yakutsk, Russia
[Maksyutov, S.] Natl Inst Environm Studies, Ctr Global Environm Res, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058506, Japan
[Schulze, E. -D.] Max Planck Inst Biogeochem, Jena, Germany

Доп.точки доступа:
Dolman, A.J.; Shvidenko, A...; Schepaschenko, D...; Ciais, P...; Tchebakova, N...; Chen, T...; van der Molen, M.K.; Marchesini, L.B.; Maximov, T.C.; Maksyutov, S...; Schulze, E.D.

/ N. M. Tchebakova, E. I. Parfenova // Bosque. - 2012. - Vol. 33, Is. 3. - P253-259, DOI 10.4067/S0717-92002012000300004. - Cited References: 22. - We ackowledge the support of the RFFI project 10-05-00941, the NASA LCLUC NEESPI project and NASA Interdisciplinary Science NNH09ZDA001N-IDS. . - 7. - ISSN 0717-9200РУБ Ecology + Forestry

Аннотация: Regional studies have shown that winters warmed 2-3 degrees C while summers warmed 1-2 degrees C during the1960-2010 period in central Siberia. Increased warming predicted from general circulation models (GCMs) by the end of the century is expected to impact Siberian vegetation. Our goal is to evaluate the consequences of climate warming on vegetation, forests, and forest-forming tree species in central Siberia. We use our envelope-type bioclimatic models of the Siberian forests and major tree conifer species based on three climatic indices which characterise their warmth and moisture requirements and cold resistance, and on one soil factor that charactrises their tolerance to permafrost. Coupling our bioclimatic models with the climatic indices and the permafrost distributions, we predict the potential habitats of forests and forest-forming tree species in current climate conditions and also in the 2080 projected climate. In the 2080 drier climate conditions, Siberian forests are simulated to decrease significantly and shift northwards while forest-steppe and steppe would come to dominate 50 % of central Siberia. Permafrost is not predicted to thaw deep enough to sustain dark (Pinus sibirica, Abies sibirica, and Picea obovata) taiga. Dahurian larch (L. gmelinii+cajanderi), which is able to withstand permafrost, would remain the dominant tree species. Light conifers (Larix spp. and Pinus sylvestris) may gain an advantage over dark conifers in a predicted dry climate due to their resistance to water stress and wildfire. Habitats for new temperate broadleaf forests, non-existent in Siberia at present, are predicted by 2080.

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Держатели документа:
[Tchebakova, Nadezda M.
Parfenova, Elena I.] Russian Acad Sci, VNSukachev Inst Forest, Siberian Branch, Krasnoyarsk 660036, Russia

Доп.точки доступа:
Tchebakova, N.M.; Parfenova, E.I.

[Text] / A. S. Isaev, V. G. Soukhovolsky, R. G. Khlebopros // Contemp. Probl. Ecol. - 2011. - Vol. 4, Is. 7. - P699-705, DOI 10.1134/S1995425511070010. - Cited References: 14. - The work was financially supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (grants no. 08-04-00217 and 11-04-00173). . - 7. - ISSN 1995-4255РУБ Ecology

Аннотация: Methodological bases of optimization modeling approach are considered in regard to describing critical phenomena in forest ecosystems. Models of insects' outbreaks, forest successions, forest fires as second order phase transitions are proposed. It is shown that there is fair correlation between model calculations and observations data.

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Держатели документа:
[Isaev, A. S.] Russian Acad Sci, Ctr Problems Ecol & Prod Forests, Moscow 117997, Russia
[Soukhovolsky, V. G.] Russian Acad Sci, Siberian Branch, Sukachev Inst Forest, Krasnoyarsk 660036, Russia
[Soukhovolsky, V. G.
Khlebopros, R. G.] Russian Acad Sci, Int Ctr Res Extreme States Organism, Siberian Branch, Krasnoyarsk Res Ctr, Krasnoyarsk 660036, Russia

Доп.точки доступа:
Isaev, A.S.; Soukhovolsky, V.G.; Khlebopros, R.G.

[Text] / N. M. Tchebakova, E. I. Parfenova, A. J. Soja // Reg. Envir. Chang. - 2011. - Vol. 11, Is. 4. - P817-827, DOI 10.1007/s10113-011-0210-4. - Cited References: 65. - This study was supported by grant #10-05-00941 of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research and NASA Research Opportunities in Space and Earth Sciences (ROSES) 2009 InterDisciplinary Science (IDS) 09-IDS09-0116. . - 11. - ISSN 1436-3798РУБ Environmental Sciences + Environmental Studies

Аннотация: Regional Siberian studies have already registered climate warming over the last several decades. We evaluated ongoing climate change in central Siberia between 1991 and 2010 and a baseline period, 1961-1990, and between 1991 and 2010 and Hadley 2020 climate change projections, represented by the moderate B1 and severe A2 scenarios. Our analysis showed that winters are already 2-3A degrees C warmer in the north and 1-2A degrees C warmer in the south by 2010. Summer temperatures increased by 1A degrees C in the north and by 1-2A degrees C in the south. Change in precipitation is more complicated, increasing on average 10% in middle latitudes and decreasing 10-20% in the south, promoting local drying in already dry landscapes. Hot spots of possible forest shifts are modeled using our Siberian bioclimatic vegetation model and mountain vegetation model with respect to climate anomalies observed pre-2010 and predicted 2020 Hadley scenarios. Forests are predicted to shift northwards along the central Siberian Plateau and upslope in both the northern and southern mountains. South of the central Siberian Plateau, steppe advancement is predicted that was previously non-existent north of 56A degrees N latitude. South of 56A degrees N, steppe expansion is predicted in the dry environments of Khakasiya and Tyva. In the southern mountains, it is predicted that the lower tree line will migrate upslope due to increased dryness in the intermontane Tyvan basins. The hot spots of vegetation change that are predicted by our models are confirmed by regional literature data.

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Держатели документа:
[Tchebakova, N. M.
Parfenova, E. I.] Russian Acad Sci Academgorodok, VN Sukachev Inst Forest, Siberian Branch, Krasnoyarsk 660036, Russia
[Soja, A. J.] NASA Langley Res Ctr, Natl Inst Aerosp, Hampton, VA 23681 USA

Доп.точки доступа:
Tchebakova, N.M.; Parfenova, E.I.; Soja, A.J.

[Text] / A. V. Panov [et al.] // Dokl. Earth Sci. - 2011. - Vol. 441, Is. 2. - P1710-1714, DOI 10.1134/S1028334X1112018X. - Cited References: 13. - This work was supported by the International ISTC, project no. 2757. . - 5. - ISSN 1028-334XРУБ Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Аннотация: The possibility to obtain reliable data on the chemical and physical characteristics of aerosols and the regularities in the processes of their formation and transportation under the background natural-climatic conditions is a necessary requirement for verification of existing climate models [1, 2].

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Держатели документа:
[Panov, A. V.
Zrazhevskaya, G. K.
Timokhina, A. V.
Onuchin, A. A.] Russian Acad Sci, Sukachev Inst Forestry, Siberian Branch, Krasnoyarsk 660036, Russia
[Heintzenberg, J.
Birmili, W.
Otto, R.
Chi, X.] Leibniz Inst Tropospher Res, Leipzig, Germany
[Andrea, M.] Max Planck Inst Chem, D-55128 Mainz, Germany
[Verkhovets, S. V.] Siberian Fed Univ, Krasnoyarsk 660041, Russia

Доп.точки доступа:
Panov, A.V.; Heintzenberg, J...; Birmili, W...; Otto, R...; Chi, X...; Zrazhevskaya, G.K.; Timokhina, A.V.; Verkhovets, S.V.; Andrea, M...; Onuchin, A.A.

[Text] / N. M. Tchebakova [et al.] // Environ. Res. Lett. - 2011. - Vol. 6, Is. 4. - Ст. 45207, DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/045207. - Cited References: 38. - We would like to recognize the Northern Eurasian Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI) and the NASA Land Cover Land Use Change (LCLUC) program for providing the background that made this work possible. We are greatly appreciative of the current support for this work provided by the NASA InterDisciplinary Science grant NNH09ZDA001N-IDS and the Russian Foundation for Basic Research grant 10-05-00941. We thank our two anonymous reviewers for their very helpful comments. . - 11. - ISSN 1748-9326РУБ Environmental Sciences + Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Аннотация: Humans have traditionally cultivated steppe and forest-steppe on fertile soils for agriculture. Forests are predicted to shift northwards in a warmer climate and are likely to be replaced by forest-steppe and steppe ecosystems. We analyzed potential climate change impacts on agriculture in south-central Siberia believing that agriculture in traditionally cold Siberia may benefit from warming. Simple models determining crop range and regression models determining crop yields were constructed and applied to climate change scenarios for various time frames: pre-1960, 1960-90 and 1990-2010 using historic data and data taken from 2020 and 2080 HadCM3 B1 and A2 scenarios. From 50 to 85% of central Siberia is predicted to be climatically suitable for agriculture by the end of the century, and only soil potential would limit crop advance and expansion to the north. Crop production could increase twofold. Future Siberian climatic resources could provide the potential for a great variety of crops to grow that previously did not exist on these lands. Traditional Siberian crops could gradually shift as far as 500 km northwards (about 50-70 km/decade) within suitable soil conditions, and new crops nonexistent today may be introduced in the dry south that would necessitate irrigation. Agriculture in central Siberia would likely benefit from climate warming. Adaptation measures would sustain and promote food security in a warmer Siberia.

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Держатели документа:
[Tchebakova, N. M.
Parfenova, E. I.] Russian Acad Sci, Siberian Branch, VN Sukachev Inst Forest, Krasnoyarsk 660036, Russia
[Lysanova, G. I.] Russian Acad Sci, Siberian Branch, Inst Geog, Irkutsk, Russia
[Soja, A. J.] NASA, Langley Res Ctr, NIA, Hampton, VA 23681 USA

Доп.точки доступа:
Tchebakova, N.M.; Parfenova, E.I.; Lysanova, G.I.; Soja, A.J.