Труды сотрудников ИЛ им. В.Н. Сукачева СО РАН

[Text] / N. M. Tchebakova, E. I. Parfenova, A. J. Soja // Reg. Envir. Chang. - 2011. - Vol. 11, Is. 4. - P817-827, DOI 10.1007/s10113-011-0210-4. - Cited References: 65. - This study was supported by grant #10-05-00941 of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research and NASA Research Opportunities in Space and Earth Sciences (ROSES) 2009 InterDisciplinary Science (IDS) 09-IDS09-0116. . - 11. - ISSN 1436-3798РУБ Environmental Sciences + Environmental Studies

Аннотация: Regional Siberian studies have already registered climate warming over the last several decades. We evaluated ongoing climate change in central Siberia between 1991 and 2010 and a baseline period, 1961-1990, and between 1991 and 2010 and Hadley 2020 climate change projections, represented by the moderate B1 and severe A2 scenarios. Our analysis showed that winters are already 2-3A degrees C warmer in the north and 1-2A degrees C warmer in the south by 2010. Summer temperatures increased by 1A degrees C in the north and by 1-2A degrees C in the south. Change in precipitation is more complicated, increasing on average 10% in middle latitudes and decreasing 10-20% in the south, promoting local drying in already dry landscapes. Hot spots of possible forest shifts are modeled using our Siberian bioclimatic vegetation model and mountain vegetation model with respect to climate anomalies observed pre-2010 and predicted 2020 Hadley scenarios. Forests are predicted to shift northwards along the central Siberian Plateau and upslope in both the northern and southern mountains. South of the central Siberian Plateau, steppe advancement is predicted that was previously non-existent north of 56A degrees N latitude. South of 56A degrees N, steppe expansion is predicted in the dry environments of Khakasiya and Tyva. In the southern mountains, it is predicted that the lower tree line will migrate upslope due to increased dryness in the intermontane Tyvan basins. The hot spots of vegetation change that are predicted by our models are confirmed by regional literature data.

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[Tchebakova, N. M.
Parfenova, E. I.] Russian Acad Sci Academgorodok, VN Sukachev Inst Forest, Siberian Branch, Krasnoyarsk 660036, Russia
[Soja, A. J.] NASA Langley Res Ctr, Natl Inst Aerosp, Hampton, VA 23681 USA

Доп.точки доступа:
Tchebakova, N.M.; Parfenova, E.I.; Soja, A.J.

[Text] / N. M. Tchebakova [et al.] // Environ. Res. Lett. - 2011. - Vol. 6, Is. 4. - Ст. 45207, DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/045207. - Cited References: 38. - We would like to recognize the Northern Eurasian Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI) and the NASA Land Cover Land Use Change (LCLUC) program for providing the background that made this work possible. We are greatly appreciative of the current support for this work provided by the NASA InterDisciplinary Science grant NNH09ZDA001N-IDS and the Russian Foundation for Basic Research grant 10-05-00941. We thank our two anonymous reviewers for their very helpful comments. . - 11. - ISSN 1748-9326РУБ Environmental Sciences + Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Аннотация: Humans have traditionally cultivated steppe and forest-steppe on fertile soils for agriculture. Forests are predicted to shift northwards in a warmer climate and are likely to be replaced by forest-steppe and steppe ecosystems. We analyzed potential climate change impacts on agriculture in south-central Siberia believing that agriculture in traditionally cold Siberia may benefit from warming. Simple models determining crop range and regression models determining crop yields were constructed and applied to climate change scenarios for various time frames: pre-1960, 1960-90 and 1990-2010 using historic data and data taken from 2020 and 2080 HadCM3 B1 and A2 scenarios. From 50 to 85% of central Siberia is predicted to be climatically suitable for agriculture by the end of the century, and only soil potential would limit crop advance and expansion to the north. Crop production could increase twofold. Future Siberian climatic resources could provide the potential for a great variety of crops to grow that previously did not exist on these lands. Traditional Siberian crops could gradually shift as far as 500 km northwards (about 50-70 km/decade) within suitable soil conditions, and new crops nonexistent today may be introduced in the dry south that would necessitate irrigation. Agriculture in central Siberia would likely benefit from climate warming. Adaptation measures would sustain and promote food security in a warmer Siberia.

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Держатели документа:
[Tchebakova, N. M.
Parfenova, E. I.] Russian Acad Sci, Siberian Branch, VN Sukachev Inst Forest, Krasnoyarsk 660036, Russia
[Lysanova, G. I.] Russian Acad Sci, Siberian Branch, Inst Geog, Irkutsk, Russia
[Soja, A. J.] NASA, Langley Res Ctr, NIA, Hampton, VA 23681 USA

Доп.точки доступа:
Tchebakova, N.M.; Parfenova, E.I.; Lysanova, G.I.; Soja, A.J.

[Текст] / T. R. Iskhakov [и др.] // Biofizika. - 2007. - Vol. 52, Is. 4. - С. 753-759. - Cited References: 23 . - 7. - ISSN 0006-3029РУБ Biophysics

Аннотация: A model of the population dynamics of insects has been developed, which takes into account the food consumption by insects and the reaction of food plants to the damage. Equations have been derived that describe the relationship between the coefficient of insect reproduction, the weight of females, the energetic effectiveness of the food consumption by insects, and the reaction of food plants. The scenarios of population outbreaks have been analyzed as a function of the weight of females in the stable state. The results of modeling have been compared with the data of natural observations.

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Russian Acad Sci, Krasnoyarsk Sci Ctr, Int Sci Ctr Studies Organism Extreme States, Sibirian Div, Akademgorodok 660036, Russia
Russian Acad Sci, Sukachev Inst Forest, Sibirian Div, Akademgorodok 660036, Russia
Siberian State Technol Univ, Krasnoyarsk 660049, Russia

Доп.точки доступа:
Iskhakov, T.R.; Soukhovolsky, V.G.; Ovchinnikova, T.M.; Tarasova, O...

[Text] / A. J. Soja [et al.] // J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos. - 2004. - Vol. 109, Is. D14. - Ст. D14S06, DOI 10.1029/2004JD004570. - Cited References: 126 . - 25. - ISSN 2169-897XРУБ Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Аннотация: [ 1] In the biomass, soils, and peatlands of Siberia, boreal Russia holds one of the largest pools of terrestrial carbon. Because Siberia is located where some of the largest temperature increases are expected to occur under current climate change scenarios, stored carbon has the potential to be released with associated changes in fire regimes. Our concentration is on estimating a wide range of current and potential emissions from Siberia on the basis of three modeled scenarios. An area burned product of Siberia is introduced, which spans from 1998 through 2002. Emissions models are spatially explicit; therefore area burned is extracted from associated ecoregions for each year. Carbon consumption estimates are presented for 23 unique ecoregions across Siberia, which range from 3.4 to 75.4 t C ha(-1) for three classes of severity. Total direct carbon emissions range from the traditional scenario estimate of 116 Tg C in 1999 (6.9 M ha burned) to the extreme scenario estimate of 520 Tg C in 2002 (11.2 M ha burned), which are equivalent to 5 and 20%, respectively, of total global carbon emissions from forest and grassland burning. Our results suggest that disparities in the amount of carbon stored in unique ecosystems and the severity of fire events can affect total direct carbon emissions by as much as 50%. Additionally, in extreme fire years, total direct carbon emissions can be 37 - 41% greater than in normal fire years, owing to increased soil organic matter consumption. Mean standard scenario estimates of CO2 ( 555 - 1031 Tg), CO ( 43 - 80 Tg), CH4 (2.4 - 4.5 Tg), TNMHC (2.2 - 4.1 Tg), and carbonaceous aerosols (4.6 - 8.6 Tg) represent 10, 15, 19, 12 and 26%, respectively, of the global estimates from forest and grassland burning. Accounting for smoldering combustion in soils and peatlands results in increases in CO, CH4, and TNMHC and decreases in CO2 emitted from fire events.

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Держатели документа:
Terra Syst Res Inc, Williamsburg, VA 23185 USA
US Forest Serv, USDA, Arlington, VA 22209 USA
Nat Resources Canada, Great Lakes Forestry Ctr, Sault Ste Marie, ON P6A 2E5, Canada
Univ Virginia, Dept Environm Sci, Charlottesville, VA 22903 USA
Russian Acad Sci, Sukachev Forest Inst, Krasnoyarsk 660036, Russia
NASA, Langley Res Ctr, Hampton, VA 23681 USA

Доп.точки доступа:
Soja, A.J.; Cofer, W.R.; Shugart, H.H.; Sukhinin, A.I.; Stackhouse, P.W.; McRae, D.J.; Conard, S.G.

[Text] / N. M. Tchebakova, E. . Parfenova, A. J. Soja // Environ. Res. Lett. - 2009. - Vol. 4, Is. 4. - Ст. 45013, DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/4/4/045013. - Cited References: 49 . - 9. - ISSN 1748-9326РУБ Environmental Sciences + Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Аннотация: Observations and general circulation model projections suggest significant temperature increases in Siberia this century that are expected to have profound effects on Siberian vegetation. Potential vegetation change across Siberia was modeled, coupling our Siberian BioClimatic Model with several Hadley Centre climate change scenarios for 2020, 2050 and 2080, with explicit consideration of permafrost and fire activity. In the warmer and drier climate projected by these scenarios, Siberian forests are predicted to decrease and shift northwards and forest-steppe and steppe ecosystems are predicted to dominate over half of Siberia due to the dryer climate by 2080. Despite the large predicted increases in warming, permafrost is not predicted to thaw deep enough to sustain dark (Pinus sibirica, Abies sibirica, and Picea obovata) taiga. Over eastern Siberia, larch (Larix dahurica) taiga is predicted to continue to be the dominant zonobiome because of its ability to withstand continuous permafrost. The model also predicts new temperate broadleaf forest and forest-steppe habitats by 2080. Potential fire danger evaluated with the annual number of high fire danger days (Nesterov index is 4000-10 000) is predicted to increase by 2080, especially in southern Siberia and central Yakutia. In a warming climate, fuel load accumulated due to replacement of forest by steppe together with frequent fire weather promotes high risks of large fires in southern Siberia and central Yakutia, where wild fires would create habitats for grasslands because the drier climate would no longer be suitable for forests.

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Держатели документа:
[Tchebakova, N. M.
Parfenova, E.] Russian Acad Sci, Siberian Branch, VN Sukachev Inst Forest, Krasnoyarsk 660036, Russia
[Soja, A. J.] NASA Langley Res Ctr, NIA, Hampton, VA 23681 USA

Доп.точки доступа:
Tchebakova, N.M.; Parfenova, E...; Soja, A.J.

[Text] / N. M. Tchebakova, T. A. Blyakharchuk, E. I. Parfenova // Environ. Res. Lett. - 2009. - Vol. 4, Is. 4. - Ст. 45025, DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/4/4/045025. - Cited References: 72. - This study was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (Grant 06-05-65127). The authors are grateful to Jane Bradford, Gerald Rehfeldt and Robert Monserud for helpful review comments. The authors greatly appreciate the comments of two reviewers which significantly improved the manuscript. . - 11. - ISSN 1748-9326РУБ Environmental Sciences + Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Аннотация: Two quantitative methods were used to reconstruct paleoenvironments and vegetation in the Altai-Sayan mountains, Central Asia, during the Holocene. The 'biomization' method of Prentice et al (1996 Clim. Dyn. 12 185-96), applied to the surface pollen record, worked fairly well in the reconstructions of current vegetation. Applying this method to fossil pollen data, we reconstructed site paleovegetation. Our montane bioclimatic model, MontBioCliM, was used inversely to convert site paleovegetation into site paleoclimates. The differences between site paleo and current climates served as past climate change scenarios. The climatic anomalies for 2020, 2050, and 2080 derived from HadCM3 A1FI and B1 of the Hadley Centre, UK, served as climate change scenarios in the 21st century. MontBioCliM was applied directly to all climate scenarios through the Holocene to map past and future mountain vegetation over the Altai-Sayan mountains. Our results suggest that the early Holocene ca 10 000 BP was cold and dry; the period between 8000 and 5300 BP was warm and moist; and the time slice ca 3200 BP was cooler and drier than the present. Using kappa statistics, we showed that the vegetation at 8000 BP and 5300 BP was similar, as was the vegetation at 10 000 BP and 3200 BP, while future vegetation was predicted to be dissimilar to any of the paleovegetation reconstructions. The mid-Holocene is frequently hypothesized to be an analog of future climate warming; however, being known as warm and moist in Siberia, the mid-Holocene climate would likely impact terrestrial ecosystems differently from the projected warm and dry mid-century climate.

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Держатели документа:
[Tchebakova, N. M.
Parfenova, E. I.] Russian Acad Sci, Siberian Branch, VN Sukachev Inst Forests, Krasnoyarsk 660036, Russia
[Blyakharchuk, T. A.] Russian Acad Sci, Siberian Branch, Inst Monitoring Climat & Ecol Syst, Tomsk 643055, Russia

Доп.точки доступа:
Tchebakova, N.M.; Blyakharchuk, T.A.; Parfenova, E.I.; Russian Foundation for Basic Research [06-05-65127]

[Text] / Y. L. Liu [et al.] // Glob. Planet. Change. - 2013. - Vol. 108. - P85-99, DOI 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.06.008. - Cited References: 134. - This research is supported by the NASA Land Use and Land Cover Change program (NASA-NNX09AI26G, NN-H-04-Z-YS-005-N, and NNX09AM55G), the Department of Energy (DE-FG02-08ER64599), the National Science Foundation (NSF-1028291 and NSF-0919331), and the NSF Carbon and Water in the Earth Program (NSF-0630319). The computing is supported by the Rosen Center of High Performance Computing at Purdue University. Special acknowledgment is made here to Prof. Eric Wood of Princeton University for his generous provision of ET dataset in the Vinukollu et al. (2011). Diego Miralles acknowledges the support by the European Space Agency WACMOS-ET project (contract no.4000106711/12/I-NB). . - 15. - ISSN 0921-8181РУБ Geography, Physical + Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Аннотация: Adequate quantification of evapotranspiration (ET) is crucial to assess how climate change and land cover change (LCC) interact with the hydrological cycle of terrestrial ecosystems. The Mongolian Plateau plays a unique role in the global climate system due to its ecological vulnerability, high sensitivity to climate change and disturbances, and limited water resources. Here, we used a version of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model that has been modified to use Penman-Monteith (PM) based algorithms to calculate ET. Comparison of site-level ET estimates from the modified model with ET measured at eddy covariance (EC) sites showed better agreement than ET estimates from the MODIS ET product, which overestimates ET during the winter months. The modified model was then used to simulate ET during the 21st century under six climate change scenarios by excluding/including climate-induced LCC. We found that regional annual ET varies from 188 to 286 mm yr(-1) across all scenarios, and that it increases between 0.11 mm yr(-2) and 0.55 mm yr(-2) during the 21st century. A spatial gradient of ET that increases from the southwest to the northeast is consistent in all scenarios. Regional ET in grasslands, boreal forests and semi-desert/deserts ranges from 242 to 374 mm yr(-1), 213 to 278 mm yr(-1) and 100 to 199 mm yr(-1), respectively; and the degree of the ET increase follows the order of grassland, semi-desert/desert, and boreal forest. Across the plateau, climate-induced LCC does not lead to a substantial change (<5%) in ET relative to a static land cover, suggesting that climate change is more important than LCC in determining regional ET. Furthermore, the differences between precipitation and ET suggest that the available water for human use (water availability) on the plateau will not change significantly during the 21st century. However, more water is available and less area is threatened by water shortage in the Business-As-Usual emission scenarios relative to level-one stabilization emission scenarios. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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[Liu, Yaling
Zhuang, Qianlai
Chen, Min
He, Yujie] Purdue Univ, Dept Earth Atmospher & Planetary Sci, W Lafayette, IN 47907 USA
[Zhuang, Qianlai
Bowling, Laura] Purdue Univ, Dept Agron, W Lafayette, IN 47907 USA
[Pan, Zhihua] China Agr Univ, Coll Resources & Environm Sci, Beijing 100193, Peoples R China
[Pan, Zhihua] Minist Agr, Key Ecol & Environm Expt Stn Field Sci Observat H, Inner Mongolia 011705, Peoples R China
[Tchebakova, Nadja
Parfenova, Elena] Russian Acad Sci, VN Sukachev Inst Forest, Siberian Branch, Krasnoyarsk 660036, Russia
[Sokolov, Andrei] MIT, Dept Earth Atmospher & Planetary Sci, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA
[Kicklighter, David
Melillo, Jerry] Marine Biol Lab, Ctr Ecosyst, Woods Hole, MA 02543 USA
[Sirin, Andrey] Russian Acad Sci, Inst Forest Sci, Lab Peatland Forestry & Ameliorat, Uspenskoye 143030, Moscow Oblast, Russia
[Zhou, Guangsheng] Chinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Vegetat & Environm Change, Inst Bot, Beijing 100093, Peoples R China
[Chen, Jiquan] Univ Toledo, Dept Environm Sci, Toledo, OH 43606 USA
[Miralles, Diego] Univ Bristol, Sch Geog Sci, Bristol, Avon, England

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Liu, Y.L.; Zhuang, Q.L.; Chen, M...; Pan, Z.H.; Tchebakova, N...; Sokolov, A...; Kicklighter, D...; Melillo, J...; Sirin, A...; Zhou, G.S.; He, Y.J.; Chen, J.Q.; Bowling, L...; Miralles, D...; Parfenova, E...; NASA [NASA-NNX09AI26G, NN-H-04-Z-YS-005-N, NNX09AM55G]; Department of Energy [DE-FG02-08ER64599]; National Science Foundation [NSF-1028291, NSF-0919331, NSF-0630319]; European Space Agency WACMOS-ET project [4000106711/12/I-NB]

[Text] / R. A. MONSERUD, N. M. TCHEBAKOVA, R. . LEEMANS // Clim. Change. - 1993. - Vol. 25, Is. 1. - P59-83, DOI 10.1007/BF01094084. - Cited References: 73 . - 25. - ISSN 0165-0009РУБ Environmental Sciences + Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Аннотация: A modified Budyko global vegetation model is used to predict changes in global vegetation patterns resulting from climate change (CO2 doubling). Vegetation patterns are predicted using a model based on a dryness index and potential evaporation determined by solving radiation balance equations. Climate change scenarios are derived from predictions from four General Circulation Models (GCM's) of the atmosphere (GFDL, GISS, OSU, and UKMO). Global vegetation maps after climate change are compared to the current climate vegetation map using the kappa statistic for judging agreement, as well as by calculating area statistics. All four GCM scenarios show similar trends in vegetation shifts and in areas that remain stable, although the UKMO scenario predicts greater warming than the others. Climate change maps produced by all four GCM scenarios show good agreement with the current climate vegetation map for the globe as a whole, although over half of the vegetation classes show only poor to fair agreement. The most stable areas are Desert and Ice/Polar Desert. Because most of the predicted warming is concentrated in the Boreal and Temperate zones, vegetation there is predicted to undergo the greatest change. Specifically, all Boreal vegetation classes are predicted to shrink. The interrelated classes of Tundra, Taiga, and Temperate Forest are predicted to replace much of their poleward mostly northern) neighbors. Most vegetation classes in the Subtropics and Tropics are predicted to expand. Any shift in the Tropics favoring either Forest over Savanna, or vice versa, will be determined by the magnitude of the increased precipitation accompanying global warming. Although the model predicts equilibrium conditions to which many plant species cannot adjust (through migration or microevolution) in the 50-100 y needed for CO2 doubling, it is nevertheless not clear if projected global warming will result in drastic or benign vegetation change.

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RUSSIAN ACAD SCI,INST FOREST,KRASNOYARSK 660036,RUSSIA
NATL INST PUBL HLTH & ENVIRONM PROTECT,DEPT GLOBAL CHANGE,3720 BA BILTHOVEN,NETHERLANDS

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MONSERUD, R.A.; TCHEBAKOVA, N.M.; LEEMANS, R...

/ E. V. Bazhina, O. V. Kvitko, E. N. Muratova // Biodiversity and Conservation. - 2011. - Vol. 20, Is. 2. - P415-428, DOI 10.1007/s10531-010-9958-y . - ISSN 0960-3115
Аннотация: Investigating the tolerance of plant reproductive systems to environmental changes has become a research priority under current climate change scenarios. Successful plant conservation requires knowledge of plant reproductive biology, particularly the meiotic characteristics of planted species. Meiosis, as part of microsporogenesis, is a critical plant developmental stage controlling future pollen quality. Meiosis in a Siberian fir (Abies sibirica) plantation, established in the Forest Arboretum of the Sukachev Institute, Russia, was studied from 2002 to 2004. The microsporogenesis pattern found for the Siberian fir appeared to be largely similar to that exhibited by other conifer species. Meiosis in the Siberian fir has the following characteristics: asynchrony, rapid progression of telophases I and II, and parallel and linear spindle arrangements at different meiosis II stages. General and specific meiosis irregularities were recorded at each stage. Some specific features of meiosis and the specific development of some irregularities were revealed. Pollen development analysis showed that irregular pollen grains made up less than 1% of all grains. The specific features of meiosis identified in fir trees growing in the Arboretum indicated low resistance of male reproductive structures to climatic changes and might account for high fir pollen sterility in this new environment. В© 2010 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

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V. N. Sukachev Institute of Forest, Academgorodok, 50-28, Krasnoyarsk 660036, Russian Federation

Доп.точки доступа:
Bazhina, E.V.; Kvitko, O.V.; Muratova, E.N.

/ T. R. Iskhakov [et al.] // Biophysics. - 2007. - Vol. 52, Is. 4. - P440-444, DOI 10.1134/S0006350907040161 . - ISSN 0006-3509
Аннотация: A model is proposed for the dynamics of a forest insect population with account of food consumption and the response of plants to damage. Equations are derived relating the propagation coefficient, female mass, pest conversion efficacy, and plant reaction. Outbreak scenarios are analyzed as dependent on steady-state female weight. The results are compared with the data of observations in nature. В© 2007 Pleiades Publishing, Inc.

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International Center for Critical States Research, Siberian Division, Russian Academy of Sciences, Krasnoyarsk, Akademgorodok 660036, Russian Federation
Sukachev Forest Institute, Siberian Division, Russian Academy of Sciences, Krasnoyarsk, Akademgorodok 660036, Russian Federation
Siberian State Technological University, Krasnoyarsk 660049, Russian Federation

Доп.точки доступа:
Iskhakov, T.R.; Sukhovol'Skii, V.G.; Ovchinnikova, T.M.; Tarasova, O.V.

/ R. A. Monserud [et al.] // Silva Fennica. - 1996. - Vol. 30, Is. 2-3. - P185-200 . - ISSN 0037-5330
Аннотация: An equilibrium model driven by climatic parameters, the Siberian Vegetation Model, was used to estimate changes in the phytomass of Siberian vegetation under climate change scenarios (CO2 doubling) from four general circulation models (GCM's) of the atmosphere. Ecosystems were classified using a three-dimensional climatic ordination of growing degree days (above a 5В°C threshold), Budyko's dryness index (based on radiation balance and annual precipitation), and Conrad's continentality index. Phytomass density was estimated using published data of Bazilevich covering all vegetation zones in Siberia. Under current climate, total phytomass of Siberia is estimated to be 74.1 В± 2.0 Pg (Petagram = 1015 g). Note that this estimate is based on the current forested percentage in each vegetation class compiled from forest inventory data. Moderate warming associated with the GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) and OSU (Oregon State Univ.) projections resulted in a 23-26 % increase in phytomass (to 91.3 В± 2.1 Pg and 93.6 В± 2.4 Pg, respectively), primarily due to an increase in the productive Southern Taiga and Subtaiga classes. Greater warming associated with the GFDL (General Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) and UKMO (United Kingdom Meteorological Office) projections resulted in a small 3-7 % increase in phytomass (to 76.6 В± 1.3 Pg and 79.6 В± 1.2 Pg, respectively). A major component of predicted changes using GFDL and UKMO is the introduction of a vast Temperate Forest-Steppe class covering nearly 40 % of the area of Siberia, at the expense of Taiga; with current climate, this vegetation class is nearly non-existent in Siberia. In addition, Subboreal Forest-Steppe phytomass doubles with all GCM predictions. In all four climate change scenarios, the predicted phytomass stock of all colder, northern classes is reduced considerably (viz., Tundra, Forest-Tundra, Northern Taiga, and Middle Taiga). Phytomass in Subtaiga increases greatly with all scenarios, from a doubling with GFDL to quadrupling with OSU and GISS. Overall, phytomass of the Taiga biome (Northern, Middle, Southern, and Subtaiga) increased 15 % in the moderate OSU and GISS scenarios and decreased by a third in the warmer UKMO and GFDL projections. In addition, a sensitivity analysis found that the percentage of a vegetation class that is forested is a major factor determining phytomass distribution. From 25 to 50 % more phytomass is predicted under climate change if the forested proportion corresponding to potential rather than current vegetation is assumed.

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Держатели документа:
Intermountain Research Station, USDA Forest Service, 1221 S. Main St., Moscow, ID 83843, United States
Forest Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Akademgorodok, 660036 Krasnoyarsk, Russian Federation
Department of Civil Engineering, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97333, United States
Department of Geography, Moscow State University, 119899 Moscow, Russian Federation

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Monserud, R.A.; Tchebakova, N.M.; Kolchugina, T.P.; Denissenko, O.V.

[Text] / A. A. Koocher [et al.] ; ed.: JS Dean, DM Meko, Meko, D // TREE RINGS, ENVIRONMENT AND HUMANITY : RADIOCARBON, 1996. - International Conference on Tree Rings, Environment and Humanity - Relationship and Processes (MAY 17-21, 1994, TUCSON, AZ). - P803-812. - Cited References: 0 . - 10. - ISBN 0-963831-42-9РУБ Ecology + Forestry + Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Аннотация: Analytical modeling is used to estimate tree and stand response to changing environment. Our approach assumes precise knowledge of the external influences and complete information about all trees on the computer sample plots. We calculated a tree's response by using an amplifying coefficient, K, and a relative contribution, C, of a given harmonic to the whole spectrum. In all scenarios, K and C increase with tree diameter within the investigated range of amplitudes and periods of influence. We describe some obvious dendrochronological results that confirm the adequacy of the approach, along with at least two unexpected results.

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Koocher, A.A.; Kofman, G.B.; Dashkovskaya, I.S.; Borisov, A.N.; Gurevich, M.J.; Dean, JS \ed.\; Meko, DM \ed.\; Meko, D \ed.\

[] / D. W. Kicklighter [et al.] // Environ.Res.Lett. - 2014. - Vol. 9, Is. 3. - Ст. 035004, DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/9/3/035004 . - ISSN 1748-9318
Аннотация: Climate change will alter ecosystem metabolism and may lead to a redistribution of vegetation and changes in fire regimes in Northern Eurasia over the 21st century. Land management decisions will interact with these climate-driven changes to reshape the region's landscape. Here we present an assessment of the potential consequences of climate change on land use and associated land carbon sink activity for Northern Eurasia in the context of climate-induced vegetation shifts. Under a 'business-as-usual' scenario, climate-induced vegetation shifts allow expansion of areas devoted to food crop production (15%) and pastures (39%) over the 21st century. Under a climate stabilization scenario, climate-induced vegetation shifts permit expansion of areas devoted to cellulosic biofuel production (25%) and pastures (21%), but reduce the expansion of areas devoted to food crop production by 10%. In both climate scenarios, vegetation shifts further reduce the areas devoted to timber production by 6-8% over this same time period. Fire associated with climate-induced vegetation shifts causes the region to become more of a carbon source than if no vegetation shifts occur. Consideration of the interactions between climate-induced vegetation shifts and human activities through a modeling framework has provided clues to how humans may be able to adapt to a changing world and identified the trade-offs, including unintended consequences, associated with proposed climate/energy policies. © 2014 IOP Publishing Ltd.

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Держатели документа:
Ecosystems Center, Marine Biological Laboratory, 7 MBL Street, Woods Hole, MA 02543, United States
Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02139, United States
Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Purdue University, 550 Stadium Mall Drive, West Lafayette, IN 47907, United States
VN Sukachev Institute of Forest, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Krasnoyarsk, Russian Federation

Доп.точки доступа:
Kicklighter, D.W.; Cai, Y.; Zhuang, Q.; Parfenova, E.I.; Paltsev, S.; Sokolov, A.P.; Melillo, J.M.; Reilly, J.M.; Tchebakova, N.M.; Lu, X.

/ J. K. Shuman [et al.] // Can. J. For. Res. - 2015. - Vol. 45, Is. 2. - P175-184, DOI 10.1139/cjfr-2014-0138 . - ISSN 0045-5067
Аннотация: Vegetation models are essential tools for projecting large-scale land-cover response to changing climate, which is expected to alter the distribution of biomes and individual species. A large-scale bioclimatic envelope model (RuBCliM) and an individual species based gap model (UVAFME) are used to simulate the Russian forests under current and future climate for two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Results for current conditions are compared between models and assessed against two independent maps of Russian forest biomes and dominant tree species. Comparisons measured with kappa statistics indicate good agreement between the models (kappa values from 0.76 to 0.69), as well as between the model results and two observationbased maps for both species presence and absence (kappa values from 0.70 to 0.43). Agreement between these multiple types of data on forest distribution provides confidence in the projected forest response to changing climate. For future conditions, both models indicate a shift in the dominant biomes from conifers to deciduous leaved species. These projections have implications for feedbacks between the energy budget, carbon cycle, and land cover in the boreal system. The distinct biome and species changes emphasize the need for continued investigation of this landmass that has the size necessary to influence regional and global climate.

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Держатели документа:
University of Virginia, Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall, 291 McCormick Road, P.O. Box 400123Charlottesville, VA, United States
Sukachev Institute of Forest, Russian Academy of SciencesKrasnoyarsk, Russian Federation
National Institute of Aerospace, NASA Langley Research Center, Climate Science and Radiation and Aerosols Branches, 21 Langley Blvd. MS 420Hampton, VA, United States
Center for Problems of Ecology and Productivity of Forests, Russian Academy of SciencesMoscow, Russian Federation
University of Virginia, Alliance for Computational Science and EngineeringCharlottesville, VA, United States

Доп.точки доступа:
Shuman, J.K.; Tchebakova, N.M.; Parfenova, E.I.; Soja, A.J.; Shugart, H.H.; Ershov, D.; Holcomb, K.

[Text] / J. K. Shuman [et al.] // Can. J. For. Res. - 2015. - Vol. 45, Is. 2. - P175-184, DOI 10.1139/cjfr-2014-0138. - Cited References:53. - This work was funded by NASA grants to H.H. Shugart (Terrestrial Ecology10-CARBON10-0068) and A.J. Soja (Inter-Disciplinary Science09-IDS09-116). We thank the anonymous reviewers and V.A. Seamster forhelpful comments on earlier versions of this manuscript, and RobertSmith for figure preparation. We also appreciate the software packagesthat made this work possible: IDRISI developed in 1987 by R.J. Eastmanat Clark University in Worcester, Massachusetts, USA, and ESRI 2008(ESRI ArcGIS version 9.3, ESRI, Redlands, California, USA). . - ISSN 0045-5067. - ISSN 1208-6037РУБ Forestry

Аннотация: Vegetation models are essential tools for projecting large-scale land-cover response to changing climate, which is expected to alter the distribution of biomes and individual species. A large-scale bioclimatic envelope model (RuBCliM) and an individual species based gap model (UVAFME) are used to simulate the Russian forests under current and future climate for two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Results for current conditions are compared between models and assessed against two independent maps of Russian forest biomes and dominant tree species. Comparisons measured with kappa statistics indicate good agreement between the models (kappa values from 0.76 to 0.69), as well as between the model results and two observation-based maps for both species presence and absence (kappa values from 0.70 to 0.43). Agreement between these multiple types of data on forest distribution provides confidence in the projected forest response to changing climate. For future conditions, both models indicate a shift in the dominant biomes from conifers to deciduous leaved species. These projections have implications for feedbacks between the energy budget, carbon cycle, and land cover in the boreal system. The distinct biome and species changes emphasize the need for continued investigation of this landmass that has the size necessary to influence regional and global climate.

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Держатели документа:
Univ Virginia, Dept Environm Sci, Charlottesville, VA 22904 USA.
Russian Acad Sci, Sukachev Inst Forest, Krasnoyarsk, Russia.
NASA, Natl Inst Aerosp, Langley Res Ctr, Climate Sci Branch, Hampton, VA 23681 USA.
NASA, Natl Inst Aerosp, Langley Res Ctr, Radiat & Aerosols Branch, Hampton, VA 23681 USA.
Russian Acad Sci, Ctr Problems Ecol & Prod Forests, Moscow, Russia.
Univ Virginia, Alliance Computat Sci & Engn, Charlottesville, VA 22904 USA.
ИЛ СО РАН

Доп.точки доступа:
Shuman, Jacquelyn K.; Tchebakova, Nadezhda M.; Parfenova, Elena I.; Soja, Amber J.; Shugart, Herman H.; Ershov, Dmitry; Holcomb, Katherine; NASA [10-CARBON10-0068, 09-IDS09-116]

/ N. M. Tchebakova [et al.] // Web Ecol. - 2016. - Vol. 16, Is. 1. - P37-39, DOI 10.5194/we-16-37-2016 . - ISSN 1399-1183
Аннотация: Needle cast caused by fungi of the genus Lophodermium Chevall. is a common disease in pine trees in Siberia. Regression analyses relating needle cast events to climatic variables in 1997-2010 showed that the disease depended most on precipitation of two successive years. Temperature conditions were important to trigger the disease in wetter years. We used our regional bioclimatic envelope model and IPCC scenarios to model the needle cast distribution and its outbreaks in the 21st century. In a warming climate, the needle cast range would shift northwards. By 2020, needle cast outbreaks would already have damaged the largest forest areas. But outbreak areas would decrease by 2080 because the ranges of modeled pathogen and Scots pine, the disease host, would separate: the host tree progression would be halted by the slower permafrost retreat, which would in turn halt the potential pathogen progression. © 2016 Author(s).

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Держатели документа:
V. N. Sukachev Institute of Forest, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Krasnoyarsk, Russian Federation

Доп.точки доступа:
Tchebakova, N. M.; Kuzmina, N. A.; Parfenova, E. I.; Senashova, V. A.; Kuzmin, S. R.

/ N. M. Tchebakova [et al.] // Environ.Res.Lett. - 2016. - Vol. 11, Is. 3, DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/035016 . - ISSN 1748-9318
Аннотация: Previous regional studies in Siberia have demonstrated climate warming and associated changes in distribution of vegetation and forest types, starting at the end of the 20th century. In this study we used two regional bioclimatic envelope models to simulate potential changes in forest types distribution and developed new regression models to simulate changes in stand height in tablelands and southern mountains of central Siberia under warming 21st century climate. Stand height models were based on forest inventory data (2850 plots). The forest type and stand height maps were superimposed to identify how heights would change in different forest types in future climates. Climate projections from the general circulation model Hadley HadCM3 for emission scenarios B1 and A2 for 2080s were paired with the regional bioclimatic models. Under the harsh A2 scenario, simulated changes included: A 80%-90% decrease in forest-tundra and tundra, a 30% decrease in forest area, a ∼400% increase in forest-steppe, and a 2200% increase in steppe, forest-steppe and steppe would cover 55% of central Siberia. Under sufficiently moist conditions, the southern and middle taiga were simulated to benefit from 21st century climate warming. Habitats suitable for highly-productive forests (≥30-40 m stand height) were simulated to increase at the expense of less productive forests (10-20 m). In response to the more extreme A2 climate the area of these highly-productive forests would increase 10%-25%. Stand height increases of 10 m were simulated over 35%-50% of the current forest area in central Siberia. In the extremely warm A2 climate scenario, the tall trees (25-30 m) would occur over 8%-12% of area in all forest types except forest-tundra by the end of the century. In forest-steppe, trees of 30-40 m may cover some 15% of the area under sufficient moisture. © 2016 IOP Publishing Ltd.

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Держатели документа:
V.N. Sukachev Institute of Forests, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Academgorodok, 50/28, Krasnoyarsk, Russian Federation
US Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Missoula, MT, United States

Доп.точки доступа:
Tchebakova, N. M.; Parfenova, E. I.; Korets, M. A.; Conard, S. G.

[Text] / S. Tautenhahn [et al.] // Glob. Change Biol. - 2016. - Vol. 22, Is. 6. - P2178-2197, DOI 10.1111/gcb.13181. - Cited References:94. - We thank Danilo Mollicone, Marina Bryukhanova, Alexey Panov, and Sergey Verkhovets for their help preparing the expeditions. This work would not have been possible without the hard work in the field of Jan Hertwig, Waldemar Ziegler, Ulrich Pruschitzki, Norman Gentsch, Luisa Hiese, Surgery Titov, Vladimir Kislitsyn, Kolya Savaronsky, and Roman Bachman. Henrik Hartmann, Angela Gunther, and Corinna Hohl assisted with dendrochronological analysis. Miguel Mahecha, Jannis van Buttlar, and Ulrich Weber helped with R and the artwork. Corinna Buendia gave helpful comments on a early stage of the manuscript. We thank three anonymous reviewers for their valuable input. The project was funded by the Max Planck Society. Anatoly Prokushkin was supported by the RSF grant 14-24-00113. . - ISSN 1354-1013. - ISSN 1365-2486РУБ Biodiversity Conservation + Ecology + Environmental Sciences

Аннотация: Fire is a primary driver of boreal forest dynamics. Intensifying fire regimes due to climate change may cause a shift in boreal forest composition toward reduced dominance of conifers and greater abundance of deciduous hardwoods, with potential biogeochemical and biophysical feedbacks to regional and global climate. This shift has already been observed in some North American boreal forests and has been attributed to changes in site conditions. However, it is unknown if the mechanisms controlling fire-induced changes in deciduous hardwood cover are similar among different boreal forests, which differ in the ecological traits of the dominant tree species. To better understand the consequences of intensifying fire regimes in boreal forests, we studied postfire regeneration in five burns in the Central Siberian dark taiga, a vast but poorly studied boreal region. We combined field measurements, dendrochronological analysis, and seed-source maps derived from high-resolution satellite images to quantify the importance of site conditions (e.g., organic layer depth) vs. seed availability in shaping postfire regeneration. We show that dispersal limitation of evergreen conifers was the main factor determining postfire regeneration composition and density. Site conditions had significant but weaker effects. We used information on postfire regeneration to develop a classification scheme for successional pathways, representing the dominance of deciduous hardwoods vs. evergreen conifers at different successional stages. We estimated the spatial distribution of different successional pathways under alternative fire regime scenarios. Under intensified fire regimes, dispersal limitation of evergreen conifers is predicted to become more severe, primarily due to reduced abundance of surviving seed sources within burned areas. Increased dispersal limitation of evergreen conifers, in turn, is predicted to increase the prevalence of successional pathways dominated by deciduous hardwoods. The likely fire-induced shift toward greater deciduous hardwood cover may affect climate-vegetation feedbacks via surface albedo, Bowen ratio, and carbon cycling.

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Держатели документа:
Max Planck Inst Biogeochem, Hans Knoll Str 10, D-07745 Jena, Germany.
Tech Univ Bergakad Freiberg, Dept Biosci, Leipziger Str 29, D-09596 Freiberg, Germany.
Univ Florida, Dept Biol, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA.
German Ctr Integrat Biodivers Res iDiv, Deutsch Pl 5e, D-04103 Leipzig, Germany.
Univ Florida, Sch Forest Resources & Conservat, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA.
Russian Acad Sci, Siberian Branch, Sukachev Inst Forest, Akademgorodok 50-28, Krasnoyarsk 660036, Russia.
Univ Leipzig, Johannisallee 21-23, D-04103 Leipzig, Germany.

Доп.точки доступа:
Tautenhahn, Susanne; Lichstein, Jeremy W.; Jung, Martin; Kattge, Jens; Bohlman, Stephanie A.; Heilmeier, Hermann; Prokushkin, Anatoly; Kahl, Anja; Wirth, Christian; Max Planck Society; RSF [14-24-00113]

/ V. I. Kharuk [et al.] // For. Ecol. Manage. - 2017. - Vol. 384. - P191-199, DOI 10.1016/j.foreco.2016.10.050 . - ISSN 0378-1127
Аннотация: Siberian pine (Pinus sibirica) and fir (Abies sibirica) (so called “dark needle conifers”, DNC) showed decreased radial growth increment within the Lake Baikal watershed since the 1980s with increasing mortality recorded since the year 2000. Tree ring width was strongly correlated with vapor pressure deficit, aridity and root zone moisture. Water stress from droughts made trees more susceptible to insect attacks causing mortality in about 10% of DNC stands within the Lake Baikal watershed. Within Siberia DNC mortality increased in the southern part of the DNC range. Biogeographically, tree mortality was located within the DNC – forest-steppes transition. Tree mortality was significantly correlated with drought and soil moisture anomalies. Within the interior of the DNC range mortality occurred within relief features with high water stress risk (i.e., steep convex south facing slopes with shallow well-drained soils). In general, DNC mortality in Siberia was induced by increased aridity and severe drought (inciting factors) in synergy with biotic attacks (contributing factor). In future climate scenarios with predicted increase in aridity DNC could be eliminated from the southern part of its current range and will be replaced by drought-resistant conifers and broadleaf species (e.g., Larix sibirica, Pinus silvestris, and Betula pubescence). © 2016

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Держатели документа:
Sukachev Institute of Forest, Krasnoyarsk, Russian Federation
Siberian Federal University, Krasnoyarsk, Russian Federation
Siberian State Aerospace University, Krasnoyarsk, Russian Federation
NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States
Russian Center of Forest Protection, Krasnoyarsk, Russian Federation

Доп.точки доступа:
Kharuk, V. I.; Im, S. T.; Petrov, I. A.; Golyukov, A. S.; Ranson, K. J.; Yagunov, M. N.

/ N. M. Tchebakova, E. I. Parfenova, A. J. Soja ; ed.: L. . Mueller, A. K. Sheudshen, F. . Eulenstein // NOVEL METHODS FOR MONITORING AND MANAGING LAND AND WATER RESOURCES IN : SPRINGER INT PUBLISHING AG, 2016. - P269-285. - (Springer Water), DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-24409-9_10. - Cited References:51 . - РУБ Environmental Sciences + Soil Science + Water Resources

Аннотация: The redistribution of terrestrial ecosystems and individual species is predicted to be profound under Global Climate Model simulations. We modeled the progression of potential vegetation and forest types in Siberia by the end of the twenty-first century by coupling large-scale bioclimatic models of vegetation zones and major conifer species with climatic variables and permafrost using the B1 and A2 Hadley Centre HadCM3 climate change scenarios. In the projected warmer and dryer climate, Siberian taiga forests are predicted to dramatically decrease and shift to the northeast, and forest-steppe, steppe, and novel temperate broadleaf forests are predicted to dominate most of Siberia by 2090. The permafrost should not retreat sufficiently to provide favorable habitats for dark (Pinus sibiric, Abies sibirica, and Picea obovata) taiga, and the permafrost-tolerant L. dahurica taiga should remain the dominant forest type in many current permafrost-lain areas. Water stress and fire-tolerant tree species (Pinus sylvestris and Larix spp.) should have an increased advantage over moisture-loving tree species (P. sibirica, A. sibirica, and P. obovata) in a new climate. Accumulated surface fuel loads due to increased tree mortality from drought, insects, and other factors, especially at the southern forest border and in the Siberian interior (Yakutia), together with an increase in severe fire weather, should also lead to increases in large, high-severity fires that are expected to facilitate vegetation progression toward a new equilibrium with the climate. Adaptation of the forest types and tree species to climate change in the south may be based on the genetic means of individual species and human willingness to aid migration, perhaps by seeding. Additionally, useful and viable crops could be established in agricultural lands instead of failing forests.

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Держатели документа:
Russian Acad Sci, VN Sukachev Inst Forest, Siberian Branch SIF SB RAS, Akademgorodok 50-28, Krasnoyarsk 660036, Russia.
NASA, Langley Res Ctr, 21 Langley Blvd,Mail Stop 420, Hampton, VA 23681 USA.

Доп.точки доступа:
Tchebakova, Nadezhda M.; Parfenova, Elena I.; Soja, Amber J.; Mueller, L... \ed.\; Sheudshen, A.K. \ed.\; Eulenstein, F... \ed.\