Кл.слова (ненормированные):
climate variation -- data set -- decision making -- Northern Hemisphere -- reconstruction -- tree ring -- warming -- article -- climate change -- cooling -- decision making -- Northern Hemisphere -- summer -- volcano -- warming
Аннотация: Tree-ring chronologies underpin the majority of annually-resolved reconstructions of Common Era climate. However, they are derived using different datasets and techniques, the ramifications of which have hitherto been little explored. Here, we report the results of a double-blind experiment that yielded 15 Northern Hemisphere summer temperature reconstructions from a common network of regional tree-ring width datasets. Taken together as an ensemble, the Common Era reconstruction mean correlates with instrumental temperatures from 1794–2016 CE at 0.79 (p < 0.001), reveals summer cooling in the years following large volcanic eruptions, and exhibits strong warming since the 1980s. Differing in their mean, variance, amplitude, sensitivity, and persistence, the ensemble members demonstrate the influence of subjectivity in the reconstruction process. We therefore recommend the routine use of ensemble reconstruction approaches to provide a more consensual picture of past climate variability. © 2021, The Author(s).
Scopus
Держатели документа:
Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
Swiss Federal Research Institute (WSL), Birmensdorf, Switzerland
Global Change Research Centre (CzechGlobe), Brno, Czech Republic
Department of Geography, Faculty of Science, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic
School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences, University of Melbourne, Richmond, Australia
ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, University of NSW, Sydney, Australia
School of Geography, Development, and Environment and Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States
Department of Biology, Chemistry and Geography, University of Quebec in Rimouski, Rimouski, QC, Canada
Department of Geography, Universite du Quebec a Montreal, Montreal, QC, Canada
GEOTOP, Universite du Quebec a Montreal, Montreal, QC, Canada
Centre d’Etudes Nordiques, Universite Laval, Quebec, QC, Canada
Institute of Geography, Friedrich-Alexander-University of Erlangen-Nurnberg, Erlangen, Germany
School of Statistics, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, United States
Institute of Ecology and Geography, Siberian Federal University, Krasnoyarsk, Russian Federation
Universite Clermont-Auvergne, Geolab UMR 6042 CNRS, Clermont-Ferrand, France
Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland
GREMA and Forest Research Institute, Universite du Quebec en Abitibi?Temiscamingue, Amos, Canada
Aix Marseille University, CNRS, IRD, INRA, Coll France, CEREGE, Aix-en-Provence, France
Department of Physical Geography, Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Natural Resources Institute Finland, Rovaniemi, Finland
Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States
Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, United States
Sukachev Institute of Forest SB RAS, Krasnoyarsk, Russian Federation
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany
Institute of Humanities, Siberian Federal University, Krasnoyarsk, Russian Federation
Department of Geography, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria
McDonald Institute for Archaeological Research, Cambridge, United Kingdom
Department of Geography, Johannes Gutenberg University, Mainz, Germany
Department of Earth Sciences, Goteborg University, Goteborg, Sweden
Department of Earth & Climate Sciences, San Francisco State University, San Francisco, CA, United States
Department of Earth Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland
Department F.-A. Forel for Environmental and Aquatic Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland
Department of Geography, Environment and Society, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, United States
Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany (SUNY), Albany, NY, United States
Key Laboratory of Desert and Desertification, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, China
CAS Centre for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Qinghai Research Centre of Qilian Mountain National Park, Academy of Plateau Science and Sustainability and Qinghai Normal University, Xining, China
School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of St Andrews, Scotland, United Kingdom
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States
State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, China
Доп.точки доступа:
Buntgen, U.; Allen, K.; Anchukaitis, K. J.; Arseneault, D.; Boucher, E.; Brauning, A.; Chatterjee, S.; Cherubini, P.; Churakova (Sidorova), O. V.; Corona, C.; Gennaretti, F.; Grie?inger, J.; Guillet, S.; Guiot, J.; Gunnarson, B.; Helama, S.; Hochreuther, P.; Hughes, M. K.; Huybers, P.; Kirdyanov, A. V.; Krusic, P. J.; Ludescher, J.; Meier, W. J.-H.; Myglan, V. S.; Nicolussi, K.; Oppenheimer, C.; Reinig, F.; Salzer, M. W.; Seftigen, K.; Stine, A. R.; Stoffel, M.; St. George, S.; Tejedor, E.; Trevino, A.; Trouet, V.; Wang, J.; Wilson, R.; Yang, B.; Xu, G.; Esper, J.