Труды сотрудников ИЛ им. В.Н. Сукачева СО РАН

[Text] / K. R. Briffa [et al.] // Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B-Biol. Sci. - 2008. - Vol. 363, Is. 1501. - P2271-2284, DOI 10.1098/rstb.2007.2199. - Cited References: 42 . - 14. - ISSN 0962-8436РУБ Biology

Аннотация: This paper describes variability in trends of annual tree growth at several locations in the high latitudes of Eurasia, providing a wide regional comparison over a 2000-year period. The study focuses on the nature of local and widespread tree-growth responses to recent warming seen in instrumental observations, available in northern regions for periods ranging from decades to a century. Instrumental temperature data demonstrate differences in seasonal scale of Eurasian warming and the complexity and spatial diversity of tree-growing-season trends in recent decades. A set of long tree-ring chronologies provides empirical evidence of association between inter-annual tree growth and local, primarily summer, temperature variability at each location. These data show no evidence of a recent breakdown in this association as has been found at other high-latitude Northern Hemisphere locations. Using Kendall's concordance, we quantify the time-dependent relationship between growth trends of the long chronologies as a group. This provides strong evidence that the extent of recent widespread warming across northwest Eurasia, with respect to 100- to 200-year trends, is unprecedented in the last 2000 years. An equivalent analysis of simulated temperatures using the HadCM3 model fails to show a similar increase in concordance expected as a consequence of anthropogenic forcing.

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Держатели документа:
[Briffa, Keith R.
Melvin, Thomas M.] Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Climat Res Unit, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England
[Shishov, Vladimir V.
Naurzbaev, Muktar M.] Russian Acad Sci, Siberian Branch, Sukachev Inst Forest, Dendroecol Dept, Krasnoyarsk 660036, Russia
[Shishov, Vladimir V.] Krasnoyarsk State Trade Econ Inst, IT & Math Modelling Dept, Krasnoyarsk 660075, Russia
[Grudd, Haken] Stockholm Univ, Dept Phys Geog & Quaternary Geol, S-10691 Stockholm, Sweden
[Hantemirov, Rashit M.] Russian Acad Sci, Ural Branch, Inst Plant & Anim Ecol, Lab Dendrochronol, Ekaterinburg 620144, Russia
[Eronen, Matti] Univ Helsinki, Dept Geol, FIN-00014 Helsinki, Finland
[Vaganov, Eugene A.] Siberian Fed Univ, Krasnoyarsk 660041, Russia

Доп.точки доступа:
Briffa, K.R.; Shishov, V.V.; Melvin, T.M.; Vaganov, E.A.; Grudd, H...; Hantemirov, R.M.; Eronen, M...; Naurzbaev, M.M.

/ U. Buntgen, K. Allen, K. J. Anchukaitis [et al.] // Nat. Commun. - 2021. - Vol. 12, Is. 1. - Ст. 3411, DOI 10.1038/s41467-021-23627-6. - Cited References:60. - R. Neukom kindly provided the re-scaled PAGES 2k data. U.B. and J.E. received funding from SustES: Adaptation strategies for sustainable ecosystem services and food security under adverse environmental conditions (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16_019/0000797), and the ERC project MONOSTAR (AdG 882727). C.C., S.G. and M.S. received funding from the SNF Sinergia project CALDERA (project no. 183571). S.C. acknowledges support from US National Science Foundation grants 1737918, 1939916 and 1939956. . - ISSN 2041-1723РУБ Multidisciplinary Sciences

Аннотация: Tree-ring chronologies underpin the majority of annually-resolved reconstructions of Common Era climate. However, they are derived using different datasets and techniques, the ramifications of which have hitherto been little explored. Here, we report the results of a double-blind experiment that yielded 15 Northern Hemisphere summer temperature reconstructions from a common network of regional tree-ring width datasets. Taken together as an ensemble, the Common Era reconstruction mean correlates with instrumental temperatures from 1794-2016 CE at 0.79 (p0.001), reveals summer cooling in the years following large volcanic eruptions, and exhibits strong warming since the 1980s. Differing in their mean, variance, amplitude, sensitivity, and persistence, the ensemble members demonstrate the influence of subjectivity in the reconstruction process. We therefore recommend the routine use of ensemble reconstruction approaches to provide a more consensual picture of past climate variability. Tree rings are a crucial archive for Common Era climate reconstructions, but the degree to which methodological decisions influence outcomes is not well known. Here, the authors show how different approaches taken by 15 different groups influence the ensemble temperature reconstruction from the same data.

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Держатели документа:
Univ Cambridge, Dept Geog, Cambridge, England.
Swiss Fed Res Inst WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland.
Global Change Res Ctr CzechGlobe, Brno, Czech Republic.
Masaryk Univ, Fac Sci, Dept Geog, Brno, Czech Republic.
Univ Melbourne, Sch Ecosyst & Forest Sci, Richmond, Australia.
Univ NSW, ARC Ctr Excellence Australian Biodivers & Herita, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
Univ Arizona, Sch Geog Dev & Environm, Tucson, AZ USA.
Univ Arizona, Lab Tree Ring Res, Tucson, AZ USA.
Univ Quebec Rimouski, Dept Biol Chem & Geog, Rimouski, PQ, Canada.
Univ Quebec Montreal, Dept Geog, Montreal, PQ, Canada.
Univ Quebec Montreal, GEOTOP, Montreal, PQ, Canada.
Univ Laval, Ctr Etud Nord, Quebec City, PQ, Canada.
Friedrich Alexander Univ Erlangen Nurnberg, Inst Geog, Erlangen, Germany.
Univ Minnesota, Sch Stat, Minneapolis, MN 55455 USA.
Siberian Fed Univ, Inst Ecol & Geog, Krasnoyarsk, Russia.
Univ Clermont Auvergne, Geolab UMR 6042 CNRS, Clermont Ferrand, France.
Univ Geneva, Inst Environm Sci, Geneva, Switzerland.
Univ Quebec Abitibi Temiscamingue, GREMA, Amos, PQ, Canada.
Univ Quebec Abitibi Temiscamingue, Forest Res Inst, Amos, PQ, Canada.
Aix Marseille Univ, Coll France, CEREGE, INRA,CNRS,IRD, Aix En Provence, France.
Stockholm Univ, Bolin Ctr Climate Res, Dept Phys Geog, Stockholm, Sweden.
Nat Resources Inst Finland, Rovaniemi, Finland.
Harvard Univ, Dept Earth & Planetary Sci, 20 Oxford St, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA.
Sukachev Inst Forest SB RAS, Krasnoyarsk, Russia.
Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK, Potsdam, Germany.
Siberian Fed Univ, Inst Humanities, Krasnoyarsk, Russia.
Univ Innsbruck, Dept Geog, Innsbruck, Austria.
McDonald Inst Archaeol Res, Cambridge, England.
Johannes Gutenberg Univ Mainz, Dept Geog, Mainz, Germany.
Gothenburg Univ, Dept Earth Sci, Gothenburg, Sweden.
San Francisco State Univ, Dept Earth & Climate Sci, San Francisco, CA 94132 USA.
Univ Geneva, Dept Earth Sci, Geneva, Switzerland.
Univ Geneva, Dept FA Forel Environm & Aquat Sci, Geneva, Switzerland.
Univ Minnesota, Dept Geog Environm & Soc, Minneapolis, MN USA.
SUNY Albany, Dept Atmospher & Environm Sci, Albany, NY 12222 USA.
Chinese Acad Sci, Northwest Inst Ecoenvironm & Resources, Key Lab Desert & Desertificat, Lanzhou, Peoples R China.
Chinese Acad Sci, CAS Ctr Excellence Tibetan Plateau Earth Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China.
Acad Plateau Sci & Sustainabil, Qinghai Res Ctr Qilian Mt Natl, Xining, Peoples R China.
Qinghai Normal Univ, Xining, Peoples R China.
Univ St Andrews, Sch Earth & Environm Sci, St Andrews, Fife, Scotland.
Columbia Univ, Lamont Doherty Earth Observ, Palisades, NY USA.
Chinese Acad Sci, Northwest Inst Ecoenvironm & Resources, State Key Lab Cryospher Sci, Lanzhou, Peoples R China.

Доп.точки доступа:
Buntgen, Ulf; Allen, Kathy; Anchukaitis, Kevin J.; Arseneault, Dominique; Boucher, Etienne; Brauning, A.; Chatterjee, Snigdhansu; Cherubini, Paolo; Churakova, Olga, V; Corona, Christophe; Gennaretti, Fabio; Griessinger, Jussi; Guillet, Sebastian; Guiot, Joel; Gunnarson, Bjoern; Helama, Samuli; Hochreuther, Philipp; Hughes, Malcolm K.; Huybers, Peter; Kirdyanov, Alexander, V; Krusic, Paul J.; Ludescher, Josef; Meier, Wolfgang J-H; Myglan, Vladimir S.; Nicolussi, Kurt; Oppenheimer, Clive; Reinig, Frederick; Salzer, Matthew W.; Seftigen, Kristina; Stine, Alexander R.; Stoffel, Markus; St George, Scott; Tejedor, Ernesto; Trevino, Aleyda; Trouet, Valerie; Wang, Jianglin; Wilson, Rob; Yang, Bao; Xu, J.; Esper, Jan; Anchukaitis, Kevin; SustES: Adaptation strategies for sustainable ecosystem services and food security [CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16_019/0000797]; ERC project MONOSTAR [AdG 882727]; SNF Sinergia project CALDERA [183571]; US National Science FoundationNational Science Foundation (NSF) [1737918, 1939916, 1939956]

/ U. Buntgen, K. Allen, K. J. Anchukaitis [et al.] // Nat. Commun. - 2021. - Vol. 12, Is. 1. - Ст. 3411, DOI 10.1038/s41467-021-23627-6. - Cited References:60. - R. Neukom kindly provided the re-scaled PAGES 2k data. U.B. and J.E. received funding from SustES: Adaptation strategies for sustainable ecosystem services and food security under adverse environmental conditions (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16_019/0000797), and the ERC project MONOSTAR (AdG 882727). C.C., S.G. and M.S. received funding from the SNF Sinergia project CALDERA (project no. 183571). S.C. acknowledges support from US National Science Foundation grants 1737918, 1939916 and 1939956. . - ISSN 2041-1723РУБ Multidisciplinary Sciences

Аннотация: Tree rings are a crucial archive for Common Era climate reconstructions, but the degree to which methodological decisions influence outcomes is not well known. Here, the authors show how different approaches taken by 15 different groups influence the ensemble temperature reconstruction from the same data. Tree-ring chronologies underpin the majority of annually-resolved reconstructions of Common Era climate. However, they are derived using different datasets and techniques, the ramifications of which have hitherto been little explored. Here, we report the results of a double-blind experiment that yielded 15 Northern Hemisphere summer temperature reconstructions from a common network of regional tree-ring width datasets. Taken together as an ensemble, the Common Era reconstruction mean correlates with instrumental temperatures from 1794-2016 CE at 0.79 (p 0.001), reveals summer cooling in the years following large volcanic eruptions, and exhibits strong warming since the 1980s. Differing in their mean, variance, amplitude, sensitivity, and persistence, the ensemble members demonstrate the influence of subjectivity in the reconstruction process. We therefore recommend the routine use of ensemble reconstruction approaches to provide a more consensual picture of past climate variability.

WOS

Держатели документа:
Univ Cambridge, Dept Geog, Cambridge, England.
Swiss Fed Res Inst WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland.
Global Change Res Ctr CzechGlobe, Brno, Czech Republic.
Masaryk Univ, Fac Sci, Dept Geog, Brno, Czech Republic.
Univ Melbourne, Sch Ecosyst & Forest Sci, Richmond, Australia.
Univ NSW, ARC Ctr Excellence Australian Biodivers & Heritag, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
Univ Arizona, Sch Geog Dev & Environm, Tucson, AZ USA.
Univ Arizona, Lab Tree Ring Res, Tucson, AZ USA.
Univ Quebec Rimouski, Dept Biol Chem & Geog, Rimouski, PQ, Canada.
Univ Quebec Montreal, Dept Geog, Montreal, PQ, Canada.
Univ Quebec Montreal, GEOTOP, Montreal, PQ, Canada.
Univ Laval, Ctr Etud Nordiques, Quebec City, PQ, Canada.
Friedrich Alexander Univ Erlangen Nurnberg, Inst Geog, Erlangen, Germany.
Univ Minnesota, Sch Stat, Minneapolis, MN 55455 USA.
Siberian Fed Univ, Inst Ecol & Geog, Krasnoyarsk, Russia.
Univ Clermont Auvergne, Geolab UMR 6042 CNRS, Clermont Ferrand, France.
Univ Geneva, Inst Environm Sci, Geneva, Switzerland.
Univ Quebec Abitibi Temiscamingue, GREMA, Amos, PQ, Canada.
Univ Quebec Abitibi Temiscamingue, Forest Res Inst, Amos, PQ, Canada.
Aix Marseille Univ, CNRS, IRD, Coll France,CEREGE,INRA, Aix En Provence, France.
Stockholm Univ, Bolin Ctr Climate Res, Dept Phys Geog, Stockholm, Sweden.
Nat Resources Inst Finland, Rovaniemi, Finland.
Harvard Univ, Dept Earth & Planetary Sci, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA.
Sukachev Inst Forest SB RAS, Krasnoyarsk, Russia.
Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK, Potsdam, Germany.
Siberian Fed Univ, Inst Humanities, Krasnoyarsk, Russia.
Univ Innsbruck, Dept Geog, Innsbruck, Austria.
McDonald Inst Archaeol Res, Cambridge, England.
Johannes Gutenberg Univ Mainz, Dept Geog, Mainz, Germany.
Gothenburg Univ, Dept Earth Sci, Gothenburg, Sweden.
San Francisco State Univ, Dept Earth & Climate Sci, San Francisco, CA 94132 USA.
Univ Geneva, Dept Earth Sci, Geneva, Switzerland.
Univ Geneva, Dept FA Forel Environm & Aquat Sci, Geneva, Switzerland.
Univ Minnesota, Dept Geog Environm & Soc, Minneapolis, MN USA.
SUNY Albany, Dept Atmospher & Environm Sci, Albany, NY 12222 USA.
Chinese Acad Sci, Northwest Inst Ecoenvironm & Resources, Key Lab Desert & Desertificat, Lanzhou, Peoples R China.
Chinese Acad Sci, CAS Ctr Excellence Tibetan Plateau Earth Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China.
Acad Plateau Sci & Sustainabil, Qinghai Res Ctr, Qilian Mt Natl Pk, Xining, Qinghai, Peoples R China.
Qinghai Normal Univ, Xining, Qinghai, Peoples R China.
Univ St Andrews, Sch Earth & Environm Sci, St Andrews, Fife, Scotland.
Columbia Univ, Lamont Doherty Earth Observ, Palisades, NY USA.
Chinese Acad Sci, Northwest Inst Ecoenvironm & Resources, State Key Lab Cryospher Sci, Lanzhou, Peoples R China.

Доп.точки доступа:
Buntgen, U.; Allen, Kathy; Anchukaitis, Kevin J.; Arseneault, Dominique; Boucher, Etienne; Brauning, Achim; Chatterjee, Snigdhansu; Cherubini, Paolo; Churakova, O. V.; Corona, Christophe; Gennaretti, Fabio; Griessinger, Jussi; Guillet, Sebastian; Guiot, Joel; Gunnarson, Bjorn; Helama, Samuli; Hochreuther, Philipp; Hughes, Malcolm K.; Huybers, Peter; Kirdyanov, Alexander, V; Krusic, Paul J.; Ludescher, Josef; Meier, Wolfgang J-H; Myglan, Vladimir S.; Nicolussi, Kurt; Oppenheimer, Clive; Reinig, Frederick; Salzer, Matthew W.; Seftigen, Kristina; Stine, Alexander R.; Stoffel, Markus; St George, Scott; Tejedor, Ernesto; Trevino, Aleyda; Trouet, Valerie; Wang, Jianglin; Wilson, Rob; Yang, Bao; Xu, Guobao; Esper, Jan; SustES: Adaptation strategies for sustainable ecosystem services and food security under adverse environmental conditions [CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16_019/0000797]; ERCEuropean Research Council (ERC)European Commission [AdG 882727]; SNF Sinergia project CALDERA [183571]; US National Science FoundationNational Science Foundation (NSF) [1737918, 1939916, 1939956]