Труды сотрудников ИЛ им. В.Н. Сукачева СО РАН

[Text] / J. K. Shuman [et al.] // Can. J. For. Res. - 2015. - Vol. 45, Is. 2. - P175-184, DOI 10.1139/cjfr-2014-0138. - Cited References:53. - This work was funded by NASA grants to H.H. Shugart (Terrestrial Ecology10-CARBON10-0068) and A.J. Soja (Inter-Disciplinary Science09-IDS09-116). We thank the anonymous reviewers and V.A. Seamster forhelpful comments on earlier versions of this manuscript, and RobertSmith for figure preparation. We also appreciate the software packagesthat made this work possible: IDRISI developed in 1987 by R.J. Eastmanat Clark University in Worcester, Massachusetts, USA, and ESRI 2008(ESRI ArcGIS version 9.3, ESRI, Redlands, California, USA). . - ISSN 0045-5067. - ISSN 1208-6037РУБ Forestry

Аннотация: Vegetation models are essential tools for projecting large-scale land-cover response to changing climate, which is expected to alter the distribution of biomes and individual species. A large-scale bioclimatic envelope model (RuBCliM) and an individual species based gap model (UVAFME) are used to simulate the Russian forests under current and future climate for two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Results for current conditions are compared between models and assessed against two independent maps of Russian forest biomes and dominant tree species. Comparisons measured with kappa statistics indicate good agreement between the models (kappa values from 0.76 to 0.69), as well as between the model results and two observation-based maps for both species presence and absence (kappa values from 0.70 to 0.43). Agreement between these multiple types of data on forest distribution provides confidence in the projected forest response to changing climate. For future conditions, both models indicate a shift in the dominant biomes from conifers to deciduous leaved species. These projections have implications for feedbacks between the energy budget, carbon cycle, and land cover in the boreal system. The distinct biome and species changes emphasize the need for continued investigation of this landmass that has the size necessary to influence regional and global climate.

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Держатели документа:
Univ Virginia, Dept Environm Sci, Charlottesville, VA 22904 USA.
Russian Acad Sci, Sukachev Inst Forest, Krasnoyarsk, Russia.
NASA, Natl Inst Aerosp, Langley Res Ctr, Climate Sci Branch, Hampton, VA 23681 USA.
NASA, Natl Inst Aerosp, Langley Res Ctr, Radiat & Aerosols Branch, Hampton, VA 23681 USA.
Russian Acad Sci, Ctr Problems Ecol & Prod Forests, Moscow, Russia.
Univ Virginia, Alliance Computat Sci & Engn, Charlottesville, VA 22904 USA.
ИЛ СО РАН

Доп.точки доступа:
Shuman, Jacquelyn K.; Tchebakova, Nadezhda M.; Parfenova, Elena I.; Soja, Amber J.; Shugart, Herman H.; Ershov, Dmitry; Holcomb, Katherine; NASA [10-CARBON10-0068, 09-IDS09-116]