Труды сотрудников ИЛ им. В.Н. Сукачева СО РАН

[Text] / I. V. Tokareva, A. S. Prokushkin, V. V. Bogdanov // Contemp. Probl. Ecol. - 2011. - Vol. 4, Is. 5. - P462-468, DOI 10.1134/S199542551105002X. - Cited References: 28. - The work was carried out with financial support of KSAU 'Krasnoyarsk Regional Foundation for Support of Scientific and Scientific and Technical Activities' and RFBR grant no. 10-05-92513. . - 7. - ISSN 1995-4255РУБ Ecology

Аннотация: The peculiarities of organic carbon water soluble fraction content in the litters and soil profile in burned forests of different age under the cryolithozone conditions have been revealed. It has been shown that surface fires cause a decrease in the content of water-extractable organic carbon (WEOC) in the litters and upper 5 cm deep layer of soil. At the same time in microelevations these differences are more pronounced and the WEOC content in the upper organogenic horizons in burnt-out places is 2 times lower. In the deeper soil horizons there have been no differences detected in the WEOC content between intact plantations and postpyrogenic areas.

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Держатели документа:
[Tokareva, I. V.
Prokushkin, A. S.
Bogdanov, V. V.] Russian Acad Sci, Siberian Branch, VN Sukachev Inst Forest, Krasnoyarsk 660036, Russia

Доп.точки доступа:
Tokareva, I.V.; Prokushkin, A.S.; Bogdanov, V.V.

[Text] / N. N. Vygodskaya [et al.] // Environ. Res. Lett. - 2007. - Vol. 2, Is. 4. - Ст. 45033, DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/2/4/045033. - Cited References: 33 . - 7. - ISSN 1748-9326РУБ Environmental Sciences + Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Аннотация: The climate system and terrestrial ecosystems interact as they change. In northern Eurasia these interactions are especially strong, span all spatial and timescales, and thus have become the subject of an international program: the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI). Without trying to cover all areas of these interactions, this paper introduces three examples of the principal micrometeorological, mesometeorological and subcontinental feedbacks that control climate-terrestrial ecosystem interactions in the boreal zone of northern Eurasia. Positive and negative feedbacks of forest paludification, of windthrow, and of climate-forced displacement of vegetation zones are presented. Moreover the interplay of different scale feedbacks, the multi-faceted nature of ecosystems-climate interactions and their potential to affect the global Earth system are shown. It is concluded that, without a synergetic modeling approach that integrates all major feedbacks and relationships between terrestrial ecosystems and climate, reliable projections of environmental change in northern Eurasia are impossible, which will also bring into question the accuracy of global change projections.

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[Vygodskaya, N. N.] Jan Kochanowski Univ Humanities & Sci, Inst Geog, Sventokshistkaya Acad Poland, PL-25406 Kielce, Poland
[Groisman, P. Ya] Natl Climat Ctr, Asheville, NC 28801 USA
[Tchebakova, N. M.
Parfenova, E. I.] VN Sukachev Inst Forest, Siberian Branch Russian Acad Sci, Krasnoyarsk 660036, Russia
[Kurbatova, J. A.] Russian Acad Sci, AN Severtsov Inst Ecol & Evolut, Moscow 119071, Russia
[Panfyorov, O.] Univ Gottingen, Inst Bioclimatol, D-37077 Gottingen, Germany
[Sogachev, A. F.] Univ Helsinki, Dept Phys Sci, FI-00014 Helsinki, Finland

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Vygodskaya, N.N.; Groisman, P.Y.; Tchebakova, N.M.; Kurbatova, J.A.; Panfyorov, O...; Parfenova, E.I.; Sogachev, A.F.

[Text] / A. J. Soja [et al.] // Glob. Planet. Change. - 2007. - Vol. 56: 1st Science Session of the Northern-Eurasia-Earth-Science-Partnership-Initiative (NEESPI) held at the 2004 Fall AGU Meeting (DEC 13-17, 2004, San Francisco, CA), Is. 03.04.2013. - P274-296, DOI 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2006.07.028. - Cited References: 167 . - 23. - ISSN 0921-8181РУБ Geography, Physical + Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Аннотация: For about three decades, there have been many predictions of the potential ecological response in boreal regions to the currently warmer conditions. In essence, a widespread, naturally occurring experiment has been conducted over time. In this paper, we describe previously modeled predictions of ecological change in boreal Alaska, Canada and Russia, and then we investigate potential evidence of current climate-induced change. For instance, ecological models have suggested that warming will induce the northern and upslope migration of the treeline and an alteration in the current mosaic structure of boreal forests. We present evidence of the migration of keystone ecosystems in the upland and lowland treeline of mountainous regions across southern Siberia. Ecological models have also predicted a moisture-stress-related dieback in white spruce trees in Alaska, and current investigations show that as temperatures increase, white spruce tree growth is declining. Additionally, it was suggested that increases in infestation and wildfire disturbance would be catalysts that precipitate the alteration of the current mosaic forest composition. In Siberia, 7 of the last 9 yr have resulted in extreme fire seasons, and extreme fire years have also been more frequent in both Alaska and Canada. In addition, Alaska has experienced extreme and geographically expansive multi-year outbreaks of the spruce beetle, which had been previously limited by the cold, moist environment. We suggest that there is substantial evidence throughout the circumboreal region to conclude that the biosphere within the boreal terrestrial environment has already responded to the transient effects of climate change. Additionally, temperature increases and warming-induced change are progressing faster than had been predicted in some regions, suggesting a potential non-linear rapid response to changes in climate, as opposed to the predicted slow linear response to climate change. (C) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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NASA, Langley Res Ctr, Natl Inst Aerosp, Hampton, VA 23681 USA
Russian Acad Sci, Sukachev Inst Forestry, Krasnoyarsk 660036, Russia
Altarum Inst, Ann Arbor, MI 48113 USA
Canadian Forest Serv, Sault Ste Marie, ON P6A 2E5, Canada
Univ Virginia, Global Environm Change Program, Charlottesville, VA 22903 USA
Univ Alaska, Inst Arctic Biol, Fairbanks, AK 99775 USA
NASA, Langley Res Ctr, Hampton, VA 23681 USA

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Soja, A.J.; Tchebakova, N.M.; French, NHF; Flannigan, M.D.; Shugart, H.H.; Stocks, B.J.; Sukhinin, A.I.; Parfenova, E.I.; Chapin, F.S.; Stackhouse, P.W.

[Text] / A. . Arneth [et al.] // Biogeosciences. - 2006. - Vol. 3, Is. 4. - P421-437. - Cited References: 67 . - 17. - ISSN 1726-4170РУБ Ecology + Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Аннотация: We compare assimilation and respiration rates, and water use strategies in four divergent ecosystems located in cold-continental central Siberia and in semi-arid southern Africa. These seemingly unrelated systems have in common a harsh and highly seasonal environment with a very sharp transition between the dormant and the active season, with vegetation facing dry air and soil conditions for at least part of the year. Moreover, the northern high latitudes and the semi-arid tropics will likely experience changes in key environmental parameters (e.g., air temperature and precipitation) in the future; indeed, in some regions marked climate trends have already been observed over the last decade or so. The magnitude of instantaneous or daily assimilation and respiration rates, derived from one to two years of eddy covariance measurements in each of the four ecosystems, was not related to the growth environment. For instance, respiration rates were clearly highest in the two deciduous systems included in the analysis (a Mopane woodland In northern Botswana and a Downy birch forest in Siberia; 300mmol m(-2) d(-1)), while assimilation rates in the Mopane woodland were relatively similar to a Siberian Scots pine canopy for a large part of the active season (ca. 420 mmol m(-2) d(-1)). Acknowledging the limited number of ecosystems compared here, these data nevertheless demonstrate that factors like vegetation type, canopy phenology or ecosystem age can override larger-scale climate differences in terms of their effects on carbon assimilation and respiration rates. By far the highest rates of assimilation were observed in Downy birch, an early successional species. These were achieved at a rather conservative water use, as indicated by relatively low levels of lambda the marginal water cost of plant carbon gain. Surprisingly, the Mopane woodland growing in the semi-arid environment had significantly higher values of lambda However, its water use strategy included a very plastic response to intermittently dry periods, and values of lambda were much more conservative overall during a rainy season with low precipitation and high air saturation deficits. Our comparison demonstrates that forest ecosystems can respond very dynamically in terms of water use strategy, both on interannual and much shorter time scales. But it remains to be evaluated whether and in which ecosystems this plasticity is mainly due to a short-term stomatal response, or alternatively goes hand in hand with changes in canopy photosynthetic capacity.

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Держатели документа:
Lund Univ, Dept Phys Geog & Ecosyst Anal, S-22363 Lund, Sweden
Max Planck Inst Biogeochem, D-07701 Jena, Germany
Univ Wageningen & Res Ctr, Nat Conservat & Plant Ecol Grp, Wageningen, Netherlands
Univ Tuscia, Viterbo, Italy
Int Inst Geoinformat Sci & Earth Observat, Enschede, Netherlands
VN Sukachev Forest Inst, Krasnoyarsk 660036, Russia

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Arneth, A...; Veenendaal, E.M.; Best, C...; Timmermans, W...; Kolle, O...; Montagnani, L...; Shibistova, O...

[Text] / N. M. Tchebakova, E. . Parfenova, A. J. Soja // Environ. Res. Lett. - 2009. - Vol. 4, Is. 4. - Ст. 45013, DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/4/4/045013. - Cited References: 49 . - 9. - ISSN 1748-9326РУБ Environmental Sciences + Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Аннотация: Observations and general circulation model projections suggest significant temperature increases in Siberia this century that are expected to have profound effects on Siberian vegetation. Potential vegetation change across Siberia was modeled, coupling our Siberian BioClimatic Model with several Hadley Centre climate change scenarios for 2020, 2050 and 2080, with explicit consideration of permafrost and fire activity. In the warmer and drier climate projected by these scenarios, Siberian forests are predicted to decrease and shift northwards and forest-steppe and steppe ecosystems are predicted to dominate over half of Siberia due to the dryer climate by 2080. Despite the large predicted increases in warming, permafrost is not predicted to thaw deep enough to sustain dark (Pinus sibirica, Abies sibirica, and Picea obovata) taiga. Over eastern Siberia, larch (Larix dahurica) taiga is predicted to continue to be the dominant zonobiome because of its ability to withstand continuous permafrost. The model also predicts new temperate broadleaf forest and forest-steppe habitats by 2080. Potential fire danger evaluated with the annual number of high fire danger days (Nesterov index is 4000-10 000) is predicted to increase by 2080, especially in southern Siberia and central Yakutia. In a warming climate, fuel load accumulated due to replacement of forest by steppe together with frequent fire weather promotes high risks of large fires in southern Siberia and central Yakutia, where wild fires would create habitats for grasslands because the drier climate would no longer be suitable for forests.

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Держатели документа:
[Tchebakova, N. M.
Parfenova, E.] Russian Acad Sci, Siberian Branch, VN Sukachev Inst Forest, Krasnoyarsk 660036, Russia
[Soja, A. J.] NASA Langley Res Ctr, NIA, Hampton, VA 23681 USA

Доп.точки доступа:
Tchebakova, N.M.; Parfenova, E...; Soja, A.J.

[Text] / N. M. Tchebakova, T. A. Blyakharchuk, E. I. Parfenova // Environ. Res. Lett. - 2009. - Vol. 4, Is. 4. - Ст. 45025, DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/4/4/045025. - Cited References: 72. - This study was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (Grant 06-05-65127). The authors are grateful to Jane Bradford, Gerald Rehfeldt and Robert Monserud for helpful review comments. The authors greatly appreciate the comments of two reviewers which significantly improved the manuscript. . - 11. - ISSN 1748-9326РУБ Environmental Sciences + Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Аннотация: Two quantitative methods were used to reconstruct paleoenvironments and vegetation in the Altai-Sayan mountains, Central Asia, during the Holocene. The 'biomization' method of Prentice et al (1996 Clim. Dyn. 12 185-96), applied to the surface pollen record, worked fairly well in the reconstructions of current vegetation. Applying this method to fossil pollen data, we reconstructed site paleovegetation. Our montane bioclimatic model, MontBioCliM, was used inversely to convert site paleovegetation into site paleoclimates. The differences between site paleo and current climates served as past climate change scenarios. The climatic anomalies for 2020, 2050, and 2080 derived from HadCM3 A1FI and B1 of the Hadley Centre, UK, served as climate change scenarios in the 21st century. MontBioCliM was applied directly to all climate scenarios through the Holocene to map past and future mountain vegetation over the Altai-Sayan mountains. Our results suggest that the early Holocene ca 10 000 BP was cold and dry; the period between 8000 and 5300 BP was warm and moist; and the time slice ca 3200 BP was cooler and drier than the present. Using kappa statistics, we showed that the vegetation at 8000 BP and 5300 BP was similar, as was the vegetation at 10 000 BP and 3200 BP, while future vegetation was predicted to be dissimilar to any of the paleovegetation reconstructions. The mid-Holocene is frequently hypothesized to be an analog of future climate warming; however, being known as warm and moist in Siberia, the mid-Holocene climate would likely impact terrestrial ecosystems differently from the projected warm and dry mid-century climate.

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Держатели документа:
[Tchebakova, N. M.
Parfenova, E. I.] Russian Acad Sci, Siberian Branch, VN Sukachev Inst Forests, Krasnoyarsk 660036, Russia
[Blyakharchuk, T. A.] Russian Acad Sci, Siberian Branch, Inst Monitoring Climat & Ecol Syst, Tomsk 643055, Russia

Доп.точки доступа:
Tchebakova, N.M.; Blyakharchuk, T.A.; Parfenova, E.I.; Russian Foundation for Basic Research [06-05-65127]

[Text] / E. D. Schulze [et al.] // Glob. Change Biol. - 1999. - Vol. 5, Is. 6. - P703-722, DOI 10.1046/j.1365-2486.1999.00266.x. - Cited References: 93 . - 20. - ISSN 1354-1013РУБ Biodiversity Conservation + Ecology + Environmental Sciences

Аннотация: Based on review and original data, this synthesis investigates carbon pools and fluxes of Siberian and European forests (600 and 300 million ha, respectively). We examine the productivity of ecosystems, expressed as positive rate when the amount of carbon in the ecosystem increases, while (following micrometeorological convention) downward fluxes from the atmosphere to the vegetation (NEE=Net Ecosystem Exchange) are expressed as negative numbers. Productivity parameters are Net Primary Productivity (NPP=whole plant growth), Net Ecosystem Productivity (NEP = CO2 assimilation minus ecosystem respiration), and Net Biome Productivity (NBP=NEP minus carbon losses through disturbances bypassing respiration, e.g. by fire and logging). Based on chronosequence studies and national forestry statistics we estimate a low average NPP for boreal forests in Siberia: 123 gC m(-2) y(-1). This contrasts with a similar calculation for Europe which suggests a much higher average NPP of 460 gC m(-2) y(-1) for the forests there. Despite a smaller area, European forests have a higher total NPP than Siberia (1.2-1.6 vs. 0.6-0.9 x 10(15) gC region(-1) y(-1)). This arises as a consequence of differences in growing season length, climate and nutrition. For a chronosequence of Pinus sylvestris stands studied in central Siberia during summer, NEE was most negative in a 67-y old stand regenerating after fire (-192 mmol m(-2) d(-1)) which is close to NEE in a cultivated forest of Germany (-210 mmol m(-2) d(-1)). Considerable net ecosystem CO2-uptake was also measured in Siberia in 200- and 215-y old stands (NEE:174 and - 63 mmol m(-2) d(-1)) while NEP of 7- and 13-y old logging areas were close to the ecosystem compensation point. Two Siberian bogs and a bog in European Russia were also significant carbon sinks (-102 to - 104 mmol m(-2) d(-1)). Integrated over a growing season (June to September) we measured a total growing season NEE of -14 mol m(-2) summer(-1) (-168 gC m(-2) summer(-1)) in a 200-y Siberian pine stand and -5 mol m(-2) summer(-1) (-60 gC m(-2) summer(-1)) in Siberian and European Russian bogs. By contrast, over the same period, a spruce forest in European Russia was a carbon source to the atmosphere of (NEE: + 7 mol m(-2) summer(-1) = + 84 gC m(-2) summer(-1)). Two years after a windthrow in European Russia, with all trees being uplifted and few successional species, lost 16 mol C m(-2) to the atmosphere over a 3-month in summer, compared to the cumulative NEE over a growing season in a German forest of -15.5 mol m(-2) summer(-1) (-186 gC m(-2) summer(-1); European flux network annual averaged - 205 gC m(-2) y(-1)). Differences in CO2-exchange rates coincided with differences in the Bowen ratio, with logging areas partitioning most incoming radiation into sensible heat whereas bogs partitioned most into evaporation (latent heat). Effects of these different surface energy exchanges on local climate (convective storms and fires) and comparisons with the Canadian BOREAS experiment are discussed. Following a classification of disturbances and their effects on ecosystem carbon balances, fire and logging are discussed as the main processes causing carbon losses that bypass heterotrophic respiration in Siberia. Following two approaches, NBP was estimated to be only about 13-16 mmol m(-2) y(-1) for Siberia. It may reach 67 mmol m(-2) y(-1) in North America, and about 140-400 mmol m(-2) y(-1) in Scandinavia. We conclude that fire speeds up the carbon cycle, but that it results also in long-term carbon sequestration by charcoal formation. For at least 14 years after logging, regrowth forests remain net sources of CO2 to the atmosphere. This has important implications regarding the effects of Siberian forest management on atmospheric concentrations. For many years after logging has taken place, regrowth forests remain weaker sinks for atmospheric CO2 than are nearby old-growth forests.

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Держатели документа:
Max Planck Inst Biogeochem, D-07701 Jena, Germany
Landcare Res, Lincoln, New Zealand
Russian Acad Sci, Inst Evolut & Ecol, Moscow 117071, Russia
Univ Tubingen, Inst Bot, D-72076 Tubingen, Germany
Comenius Univ, Dept Biophys & Chem Phys, Bratislava 84215, Slovakia
Univ Tuscia, Dept Forest Sci & Environm, I-01100 Viterbo, Italy
Moscow MV Lomonosov State Univ, Ecol Travel Ctr, Moscow 119899, Russia
Russian Acad Sci, Siberian Branch, Forest Inst, Krasnoyarsk 660036, Russia

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Schulze, E.D.; Lloyd, J...; Kelliher, F.M.; Wirth, C...; Rebmann, C...; Luhker, B...; Mund, M...; Knohl, A...; Milyukova, I.M.; Schulze, W...; Ziegler, W...; Varlagin, A.B.; Sogachev, A.F.; Valentini, R...; Dore, S...; Grigoriev, S...; Kolle, O...; Panfyorov, M.I.; Tchebakova, N...; Vygodskaya, N.N.

[Текст] / F. Z. GLEBOV // IZVESTIYA AKADEMII NAUK SSSR SERIYA BIOLOGICHESKAYA. - 1991. - Is. 4. - С. 603-610. - Cited References: 19 . - 8. - ISSN 0002-3329РУБ Biology

Аннотация: Definition of the forest community is suggested as balanced ecosystem, where relations of water, phytomass and mortmass are relatively stable. The differences of forest and bog communities are discussed in terms of ecobiomorphes peculiarities. Biogeocenoses of the successional series forest-bog are considered. Short-term dynamics of the soil swamping-unswamping and long-term dynamics of forest and mire interchanges under various tropic conditions are described on example of the taiga zone of West Siberia.


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Glebov, F.Z.

[Text] / Y. L. Liu [et al.] // Clim. Change. - 2014. - Vol. 126, Is. 03.04.2014. - P413-427, DOI 10.1007/s10584-014-1234-9. - Cited References: 53. - This research is supported by the NASA Land Use and Land Cover Change program (NASA-NNX09AI26G, NN-H-04-Z-YS-005-N, and NNX09AM55G), the Department of Energy (DE-FG02-08ER64599), the National Science Foundation (NSF-1028291 and NSF- 0919331), the NSF Carbon and Water in the Earth Program (NSF-0630319), and the Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human Systems (CNH) Program of the NSF (#1313761). We also acknowledge the Global Runoff Data Centre for provision of the gauge station data. Runoff data in Peterson et al. (2002) were obtained from the R-ArcticNet database. A special acknowledgment is made here to Prof. Eric Wood for his generous provision of the ET datasets of Vinukollu et al. (2011), and to Dr. Brigitte Mueller and Dr. Martin Hirsci for the provision of the LandFlux-EVAL dataset of Mueller et al. (2013). Diego Miralles acknowledges the support by the European Space Agency WACMOS-ET project (4000106711/12/I-NB). . - ISSN 0165-0009. - ISSN 1573-1480РУБ Environmental Sciences + Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Аннотация: Northern Eurasian ecosystems play an important role in the global climate system. Northern Eurasia (NE) has experienced dramatic climate changes during the last half of the 20th century and to present. To date, how evapotranspiration (ET) and water availability (P-ET, P: precipitation) had changed in response to the climatic change in this region has not been well evaluated. This study uses an improved version of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) that explicitly considers ET from uplands, wetlands, water bodies and snow cover to examine temporal and spatial variations in ET, water availability and river discharge in NE for the period 1948-2009. The average ET over NE increased during the study period at a rate of 0.13 mm year(-1) year(-1). Over this time, water availability augmented in the western part of the region, but decreased in the eastern part. The consideration of snow sublimation substantially improved the ET estimates and highlighted the importance of snow in the hydrometeorology of NE. We also find that the modified TEM estimates of water availability in NE watersheds are in good agreement with corresponding measurements of historical river discharge before 1970. However, a systematic underestimation of river discharge occurs after 1970 indicates that other water sources or dynamics not considered by the model (e.g., melting glaciers, permafrost thawing and fires) may also be important for the hydrology of the region.

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Держатели документа:
[Liu, Yaling
Zhuang, Qianlai
He, Yujie] Purdue Univ, Dept Earth Atmospher & Planetary Sci, W Lafayette, IN 47907 USA
[Zhuang, Qianlai] Purdue Univ, Dept Agron, W Lafayette, IN 47907 USA
[Pan, Zhihua] China Agr Univ, Coll Resources & Environm Sci, Beijing 100094, Peoples R China
[Miralles, Diego] Univ Ghent, Lab Hydrol & Water Management, B-9000 Ghent, Belgium
[Miralles, Diego] Univ Bristol, Sch Geog Sci, Bristol, Avon, England
[Tchebakova, Nadja] Russian Acad Sci, Siberian Branch, VN Sukachev Inst Forest, Krasnoyarsk, Russia
[Kicklighter, David
Melillo, Jerry] Marine Biol Lab, Ctr Ecosyst, Woods Hole, MA 02543 USA
[Chen, Jiquan] Michigan State Univ, CGCEO Geog, E Lansing, MI 48824 USA
[Sirin, Andrey] Acad Sci, Lab Peatland Forestry & Ameliorat, Inst Forest Sci, Uspenskoye, Moscow Oblast, Russia
[Zhou, Guangsheng] Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Bot, Beijing, Peoples R China
ИЛ СО РАН

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Liu, Y.L.; Zhuang, Q.L.; Pan, Z.H.; Miralles, D...; Tchebakova, N...; Kicklighter, D...; Chen, J.Q.; Sirin, A...; He, Y.J.; Zhou, G.S.; Melillo, J...; NASA Land Use and Land Cover Change program [NASA-NNX09AI26G, NN-H-04-Z-YS-005-N, NNX09AM55G]; Department of Energy [DE-FG02-08ER64599]; National Science Foundation [NSF-1028291, NSF- 0919331]; NSF Carbon and Water in the Earth Program [NSF-0630319]; Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human Systems (CNH) Program of the NSF [1313761]; European Space Agency WACMOS-ET project [4000106711/12/I-NB]

/ N. M. Tchebakova, E. I. Parfenova, A. J. Soja ; ed.: L. . Mueller, A. K. Sheudshen, F. . Eulenstein // NOVEL METHODS FOR MONITORING AND MANAGING LAND AND WATER RESOURCES IN : SPRINGER INT PUBLISHING AG, 2016. - P269-285. - (Springer Water), DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-24409-9_10. - Cited References:51 . - РУБ Environmental Sciences + Soil Science + Water Resources

Аннотация: The redistribution of terrestrial ecosystems and individual species is predicted to be profound under Global Climate Model simulations. We modeled the progression of potential vegetation and forest types in Siberia by the end of the twenty-first century by coupling large-scale bioclimatic models of vegetation zones and major conifer species with climatic variables and permafrost using the B1 and A2 Hadley Centre HadCM3 climate change scenarios. In the projected warmer and dryer climate, Siberian taiga forests are predicted to dramatically decrease and shift to the northeast, and forest-steppe, steppe, and novel temperate broadleaf forests are predicted to dominate most of Siberia by 2090. The permafrost should not retreat sufficiently to provide favorable habitats for dark (Pinus sibiric, Abies sibirica, and Picea obovata) taiga, and the permafrost-tolerant L. dahurica taiga should remain the dominant forest type in many current permafrost-lain areas. Water stress and fire-tolerant tree species (Pinus sylvestris and Larix spp.) should have an increased advantage over moisture-loving tree species (P. sibirica, A. sibirica, and P. obovata) in a new climate. Accumulated surface fuel loads due to increased tree mortality from drought, insects, and other factors, especially at the southern forest border and in the Siberian interior (Yakutia), together with an increase in severe fire weather, should also lead to increases in large, high-severity fires that are expected to facilitate vegetation progression toward a new equilibrium with the climate. Adaptation of the forest types and tree species to climate change in the south may be based on the genetic means of individual species and human willingness to aid migration, perhaps by seeding. Additionally, useful and viable crops could be established in agricultural lands instead of failing forests.

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Russian Acad Sci, VN Sukachev Inst Forest, Siberian Branch SIF SB RAS, Akademgorodok 50-28, Krasnoyarsk 660036, Russia.
NASA, Langley Res Ctr, 21 Langley Blvd,Mail Stop 420, Hampton, VA 23681 USA.

Доп.точки доступа:
Tchebakova, Nadezhda M.; Parfenova, Elena I.; Soja, Amber J.; Mueller, L... \ed.\; Sheudshen, A.K. \ed.\; Eulenstein, F... \ed.\